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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:19 am

A significant storm is likely to develop next week. Looking at 500 mb a digging trough with a good ridge to its west. The issue is that the ridge is too far east and it's more than likely that the storm matures offshore too far to affect us. More of a Canadian Maritimes threat at this time.

You need this ridge well west of what you see. Several hundred miles. Is it a dead threat? If I don't see large changes in that structure in 2 days, then yes it's dead IMO.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:15 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:A significant storm is likely to develop next week.  Looking at 500 mb a digging trough with a good ridge to its west.  The issue is that the ridge is too far east and it's more than likely that the storm matures offshore too far to affect us.  More of a Canadian Maritimes threat at this time.

You need this ridge well west of what you see.  Several hundred miles.  Is it a dead threat?  If I don't see large changes in that structure in 2 days, then yes it's dead IMO.

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Totally heehaw. You beat me to it. While there is a PNA spike towards positive to this time frame Ridge axis needs to be at least near Nevada. That plus the area of confluence In the NE is way to far south compliments of an NAO with a -2 std deviation. Presses as far south as the Va/NC area. Our southern system has no where to go but exit the coast near S Ga/N Fla. That's just not going to cut it. No room to come up. The telles spotted the storm but when and where doesnt look like the our location will be affected. Not dead yet but not excited that enough can change in time. We'll see

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:48 pm

Looking pretty boring the next 10 days. The good news is bright sunshine will dominate over that time. Overall its going to be near normal with more days feeling colder than normal. Let's see if we can get some MJO magic for mid to late March

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Post by Irish Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:10 am

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Wow, look at those temps into the 2nd week of March!

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:31 am

Ol Man winter wants one moer shot at winter come mid month for teh Ides of March and the MJO going to Phase 8 then 1
GEFS
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 14 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member
EURO
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:34 pm

Here's my guess on what happens over next 2 weeks. The AO goes upward dramatically to +3 in the next week and we warm up into the 60's. Many folks say we are done with snow and there's no way it's going to snow again this season.

The AO then drops to near neutral or slightly negative. We get a storm that gets pushed to our south due to MJO and modest NAO blocking. Interior gets several inches (4" +) and CPK gets a few to hit their 40" for the season. NJ coastal plain will be tough to accumulate much in mid March, but it snows even if white rain.


Not much certainty in this obviously, but I've seen too many times in March after a warm spell that snow comes fairly rapidly in its wake. This year with the AO state it would not all surprise to see a decent March snowfall for the interior.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:27 am

This morning 6Z GFS. For entertainment purposes only as it is 11 days away and in dreamland, but dreams can be fun.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:55 am

March always can surprise and I think we all should see another snow event of a few inches before the books close on the 2020-2021 winter.Watch out if you get a few days in the 60's! Remember the Blizzard Of 1888 ( CP and I were there).A few days before, people were sunning themselves on blankets in Central Park in the 60's.
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Post by Irish Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:51 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This morning 6Z GFS. For entertainment purposes only as it is 11 days away and in dreamland, but dreams can be fun.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 14 Gfs_as25

Sorry, 3 inches aren't a dream for me. However, I know some inland folks would love this. Honestly, I'm in spring mode!

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:49 am

Sorry Spring your going to be delayed rats in fratsin!!



Last edited by amugs on Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:59 am

The PV that has been sitting stationary over eastern Canada, and has resulted in colder than normal temps last night and thru this weekend, is getting booted by a mid-level ridge and working its way back into the Arctic. Therefore, beginning Tuesday we see warmer than normal temps creep into our area as the SE Ridge dominates nearly the entire eastern seaboard. We are going to hit our first 60 degree day of the season - probably either Tuesday or Wednesday.

TUES

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WED

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THURS

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FRI

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Beyond next week there is a chance we return back to colder than normal. We may even see ONE more chance for snow (N&W may see a couple more). I'll admit I am not so enthused about the prospects of more winter weather. Not because I don't want it, but the pattern doesn't seem all that appetizing to me. You need a lot more than just a seasonal trough this time of year, and I don't see enough amplification in the pattern to support any significant snowfall. But if it does happen, it will be the week of the 15th.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:23 pm

Virtually all of this is from a storm on the 18th. Only 13 days to go, lock it up.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:00 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Virtually all of this is from a storm on the 18th. Only 13 days to go, lock it up.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 14 Gfs_as26

I am going to take my time enjoying this map because it's probably the last one I will see until next winter.Anyway, when you get a few days in the 60's in March, watch out a week or so later! Not counting this out!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:40 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Virtually all of this is from a storm on the 18th. Only 13 days to go, lock it up.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 14 Gfs_as26

I am going to take my time enjoying this map because it's probably the last one I will see until next winter.Anyway, when you get a few days in the 60's in March, watch out a week or so later! Not counting this out!
Thats crazy and it will happen because I am supposed to go on a day trip that day hahaha. If it happens will put me over 50 inches which has been quite some time and 10x what I saw last year lol
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Post by amugs Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:40 am

Cold incoming after a torch= March Madness!!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:36 am

8 days away now so starting to treat this as is it is plausible, at least for the interior of the forum, NWNJ, SENY, NWCT. It would be a nice topping on a good 7 week period overall.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:43 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8 days away now so starting to treat this as is it is plausible, at least for the interior of the forum, NWNJ, SENY, NWCT. It would be a nice topping on a good 7 week period overall.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 14 Gfs_as27

Yes the ensembles support this time frame about 1 week from now.  There may also be NAO blocking that coincides with this time frame.  50/50 low too?  There will probably be a boundary that sets up that determines the thermal profiles.  Of course the ULL latitude will determine how much and far north the warmth will get at the mid levels.  Can't really afford too far north in mid March. Another thing in March is you don't need the +PNA ridging to render sig snow west of the Fall Line.  Wave lengths are much shorter this time of year.  Coastal plain is always going to be tough for sig snow in mid March unless you have a dynamic system.

This is definitely a window of interest for me.

These 500 mb heights work just fine in March as shown by the 12z GFS.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:21 pm

Tonights 18Z GFS.

A week away and several runs in a row does not a storm make, but certainly worth tracking for now

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:12 pm

If fantasy storms like this verified on these models even half of the time we would average about 200-300 inches per season. We would be the tug hill plateau of NY.

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:24 pm

Significant changes on models for early/mid next week. Starting to look a little interesting.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 09, 2021 3:08 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If fantasy storms like this verified on these models even half of the time we would average about 200-300 inches per season. We would be the tug hill plateau of NY.

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wow when would been the last time all way down to Bronx saw a 20 inch storm in March? Was that 1994? Now 18z today has made. I am a vetting man and my guess is this is a long shot and only for well inland.
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Post by Grselig Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If fantasy storms like this verified on these models even half of the time we would average about 200-300 inches per season. We would be the tug hill plateau of NY.

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wow when would been the last time all way down to Bronx saw a 20 inch storm in March? Was that 1994? Now 18z today has made. I am a vetting man and my guess is this is a long shot and only for well inland.

Impressive. Thats from the 7th. Any idea what todays maps show?
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Post by billg315 Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:16 pm

Next Monday into Tuesday could be a close call for another shot at some wintry weather. The long range a couple weeks ago was hinting at something popping in that time frame, so worth watching.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:39 pm

What’s the pump on any precio next week
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:04 pm

So..uhm...mid-March snowstorm?

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