Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?
it's not warmth that is killing next weekend's threat, it's cold enough but models have trended weaker with the low and well to the south of our area. It then warms up after that and before you know it we are in the middle of March and the chances of snow become less likely.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Irish yes it is but you want warmth, 43 and rain is not warm. 53 and sun is warm tnis time of year yes. April not so much. March is always a volitale month and we will have cold and warm periods alike this.month. Models are hinting at another SSW to take affect mid month into early April.. if that happens and we get another NAO block or AO couplet and the MJO looking to go to 8 then 1 Spring gets put on hold. You have to let the pattern wash out. Time will tell.Irish wrote:dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?
I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.
From JB
East Based NAO and AK PV sits over it bottling up the cold
NAO slides down over Hudson Bay = colder, stormy weather possibilities. Now is there enough cold air for snow that remains to be seen. Old Farmer Almanac (or is it the regar one) is calling for EC blizzard 3rd week of March.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
You need this ridge well west of what you see. Several hundred miles. Is it a dead threat? If I don't see large changes in that structure in 2 days, then yes it's dead IMO.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
heehaw453 wrote:A significant storm is likely to develop next week. Looking at 500 mb a digging trough with a good ridge to its west. The issue is that the ridge is too far east and it's more than likely that the storm matures offshore too far to affect us. More of a Canadian Maritimes threat at this time.
You need this ridge well west of what you see. Several hundred miles. Is it a dead threat? If I don't see large changes in that structure in 2 days, then yes it's dead IMO.
Totally heehaw. You beat me to it. While there is a PNA spike towards positive to this time frame Ridge axis needs to be at least near Nevada. That plus the area of confluence In the NE is way to far south compliments of an NAO with a -2 std deviation. Presses as far south as the Va/NC area. Our southern system has no where to go but exit the coast near S Ga/N Fla. That's just not going to cut it. No room to come up. The telles spotted the storm but when and where doesnt look like the our location will be affected. Not dead yet but not excited that enough can change in time. We'll see
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
GEFS
EURO
An overwhelmingly forecasted below normal period, with shots of warmth looks likely for next 10 days... tail end guidance is hinting at a significant cold shot march 16-19 pic.twitter.com/or68ZuT770
— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) March 2, 2021
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
The AO then drops to near neutral or slightly negative. We get a storm that gets pushed to our south due to MJO and modest NAO blocking. Interior gets several inches (4" +) and CPK gets a few to hit their 40" for the season. NJ coastal plain will be tough to accumulate much in mid March, but it snows even if white rain.
Not much certainty in this obviously, but I've seen too many times in March after a warm spell that snow comes fairly rapidly in its wake. This year with the AO state it would not all surprise to see a decent March snowfall for the interior.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
one more major attack of winter lurking. Beware the Ides of March thru Easter, Euro 500 mb pattern showing set up for major cold charge as western trough shears out in 10-15. Cold oozes in before, then charges with and after trough. Late March version of Feb pic.twitter.com/7f5Eush44h
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) March 5, 2021
Last edited by amugs on Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
TUES
WED
THURS
FRI
Beyond next week there is a chance we return back to colder than normal. We may even see ONE more chance for snow (N&W may see a couple more). I'll admit I am not so enthused about the prospects of more winter weather. Not because I don't want it, but the pattern doesn't seem all that appetizing to me. You need a lot more than just a seasonal trough this time of year, and I don't see enough amplification in the pattern to support any significant snowfall. But if it does happen, it will be the week of the 15th.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
I am going to take my time enjoying this map because it's probably the last one I will see until next winter.Anyway, when you get a few days in the 60's in March, watch out a week or so later! Not counting this out!
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Thats crazy and it will happen because I am supposed to go on a day trip that day hahaha. If it happens will put me over 50 inches which has been quite some time and 10x what I saw last year loldocstox12 wrote:
I am going to take my time enjoying this map because it's probably the last one I will see until next winter.Anyway, when you get a few days in the 60's in March, watch out a week or so later! Not counting this out!
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Yes the ensembles support this time frame about 1 week from now. There may also be NAO blocking that coincides with this time frame. 50/50 low too? There will probably be a boundary that sets up that determines the thermal profiles. Of course the ULL latitude will determine how much and far north the warmth will get at the mid levels. Can't really afford too far north in mid March. Another thing in March is you don't need the +PNA ridging to render sig snow west of the Fall Line. Wave lengths are much shorter this time of year. Coastal plain is always going to be tough for sig snow in mid March unless you have a dynamic system.
This is definitely a window of interest for me.
These 500 mb heights work just fine in March as shown by the 12z GFS.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
wow when would been the last time all way down to Bronx saw a 20 inch storm in March? Was that 1994? Now 18z today has made. I am a vetting man and my guess is this is a long shot and only for well inland.
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jmanley32 wrote:wow when would been the last time all way down to Bronx saw a 20 inch storm in March? Was that 1994? Now 18z today has made. I am a vetting man and my guess is this is a long shot and only for well inland.
Impressive. Thats from the 7th. Any idea what todays maps show?
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