Long Range Discussions 21.0

@dkodgis wrote:As a rank amateur, I have no idea where anyone gets the ensembles, maps, etc. that show potential weather happening. I see them and I think they must be subscription-based. If anyone can point me in the freeware or free ensemble areas, I would appreciate it so I could see for myself. I know nothing is set in stone until 48-24 hours to the event. So this is why I asked. I simply don't know where to find the things you all look at. To wit, I hope we get some snow one more time...unto the brink dear friends...and soon

Damian, I am as rank an amateur as you are, but if you look at the top of the page, there is actually a section the says "weather models". Some links don't work,but it's a start. I did notice that a lot of the maps posted come from Tropical Tidbits, and if you go to that page tropicaltidbits.com, again at top of page click on forecast models and you can poke around in there. Happy hunting...

Looking at the 19th, I'll be driving back from DC so of course the weather is going to suck. At this point I'll take rain, don't want to have to hang out in Virginia until Saturday...

I'm good with this, even though I am enoying the upper 60's today. This would be a fitting winter send off.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm good with this, even though I am enoying the upper 60's today. This would be a fitting winter send off.

A Hudson Valley special. Still possible for snow in these parts in March.What a parting shot that would be for this winter.

Winter is over for me folks, see you next winter season. Bring up spring and summer!!

@Irish wrote:Winter is over for me folks, see you next winter season.  Bring up spring and summer!!

Have to agree with you. We may see some snow in the air, but at this point probably we're done with accumulating snowfall accept in higher elevations NW. I would grade the meteorological winter as a B. Which is the best I've seen since 2014/2015 and would've easily been an A if not for that 5 week stretch of minimal snowfall mostly due to a lack of cold air.

We never really torched during the winter as the AO state stayed negative and significantly so. As I've said many times for my money the -AO is the most important z500 pattern to give this area wintry chances. If you don't have it as the base state, then you tend to torch a lot. Which means even if you do get snow it melts quickly. One thing that really stopped this winter from really being historic was the lack of -EPO in December/January. A cross polar flow would have cooled things down earlier and January would've produced a lot more. All in all not too shabby of a winter...