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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by dkodgis Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:00 pm

As a rank amateur, I have no idea where anyone gets the ensembles, maps, etc. that show potential weather happening. I see them and I think they must be subscription-based. If anyone can point me in the freeware or free ensemble areas, I would appreciate it so I could see for myself. I know nothing is set in stone until 48-24 hours to the event. So this is why I asked. I simply don't know where to find the things you all look at. To wit, I hope we get some snow one more time...unto the brink dear friends...and soon
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:23 pm

@dkodgis wrote:As a rank amateur, I have no idea where anyone gets the ensembles, maps, etc. that show potential weather happening. I see them and I think they must be subscription-based. If anyone can point me in the freeware or free ensemble areas, I would appreciate it so I could see for myself. I know nothing is set in stone until 48-24 hours to the event. So this is why I asked. I simply don't know where to find the things you all look at. To wit, I hope we get some snow one more time...unto the brink dear friends...and soon


Damian, I am as rank an amateur as you are, but if you look at the top of the page, there is actually a section the says "weather models". Some links don't work,but it's a start. I did notice that a lot of the maps posted come from Tropical Tidbits, and if you go to that page tropicaltidbits.com, again at top of page click on forecast models and you can poke around in there. Happy hunting...

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Post by dkodgis Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:35 pm

Ooooohhhhh. Thanks, mate
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:41 pm

Looking at the 19th, I'll be driving back from DC so of course the weather is going to suck. At this point I'll take rain, don't want to have to hang out in Virginia until Saturday...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:58 pm

I'm good with this, even though I am enoying the upper 60's today. This would be a fitting winter send off.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 15 Gfs_as29
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Post by dkodgis Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:28 pm

The stuff dreams are made of
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Post by docstox12 Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:09 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm good with this, even though I am enoying the upper 60's today. This would be a fitting winter send off.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 15 Gfs_as29

A Hudson Valley special. Still possible for snow in these parts in March.What a parting shot that would be for this winter.
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Post by Irish Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:02 pm

Winter is over for me folks, see you next winter season. Bring up spring and summer!!

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:45 pm

@Irish wrote:Winter is over for me folks, see you next winter season.  Bring up spring and summer!!

Have to agree with you. We may see some snow in the air, but at this point probably we're done with accumulating snowfall accept in higher elevations NW. I would grade the meteorological winter as a B. Which is the best I've seen since 2014/2015 and would've easily been an A if not for that 5 week stretch of minimal snowfall mostly due to a lack of cold air.

We never really torched during the winter as the AO state stayed negative and significantly so. As I've said many times for my money the -AO is the most important z500 pattern to give this area wintry chances. If you don't have it as the base state, then you tend to torch a lot. Which means even if you do get snow it melts quickly. One thing that really stopped this winter from really being historic was the lack of -EPO in December/January. A cross polar flow would have cooled things down earlier and January would've produced a lot more. All in all not too shabby of a winter...

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