Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
amugs wrote:See the evolution next week - IF the Western ridge amplifies - spikes up a bit then we may have a couple of shots to end winter with a bang.
That'd be great but I was smelling spring in the air today.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
So, is winter over? Not so fast
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) February 25, 2021
Yes, it generally looks milder over the two weeks.
But, eastern Pacific / South American convective forcing patterns (8-1) during March & maybe again in April could keep the chill close.
I wouldn't put the winter weather gear away just yet... pic.twitter.com/MaSg0mxt5t
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV
— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021
End of next week time frame ingredients are there
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
dkodgis wrote:All eyes are upon you, Mugs. Deliver the goods.
In Mugs we trust
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Next week - get this to go phase/connect up and we have a nice East Coast Storm.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
amugs wrote:GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV
— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021
End of next week time frame ingredients are there
Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV
— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021
End of next week time frame ingredients are there
Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.
A friend of mine pays WeatherWorks for forecasts, they already warned him about a 20" snowstorm on the 5th!
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Dunnzoo wrote:sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV
— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021
End of next week time frame ingredients are there
Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.
A friend of mine pays WeatherWorks for forecasts, they already warned him about a 20" snowstorm on the 5th!
So precise! lol
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
There is a +PNA spike in the ensemble means, combined with a negative NAO and possible favorable MJO phases. If true this will lead to a significant storm to develop alog the coast somewhere. Oobv the details of which, ie: precip types for who and where, will be ironed out in time. But the storm signal for the time frame 5th-8th is def there..for now.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Subtle but important differences regarding the Euro ensembles vs GFS ensembles. The GEFS would be a much warmer soln to any storm that tries to develop during this time frame, because we would get modified Pac air with this look involved similar to the problems we were having in January, esp the first half. However the euro(EPS) has a steeper ridge out west and a better position to the NAO ridge so there is a deeper cold air source involved. It will be interesting to see how this evolves.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
MJO goes into favorable phases for snow n cold in March. Dont shoot the messengers but as I said to JMAN you are not washing out all tjis deep level arctic cold and snowpack overhead and to our NW and W like that. Beginning of March is a mix of moderate to cold days. IF tjis MJO does happen which VP 200 maps sayd so as of now winter will take a stand or have a good ending to the show ...maybe Grand??
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Nice place to be 8 days out on the SE Biased GFS
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?
I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?
it's not warmth that is killing next weekend's threat, it's cold enough but models have trended weaker with the low and well to the south of our area. It then warms up after that and before you know it we are in the middle of March and the chances of snow become less likely.
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Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Irish yes it is but you want warmth, 43 and rain is not warm. 53 and sun is warm tnis time of year yes. April not so much. March is always a volitale month and we will have cold and warm periods alike this.month. Models are hinting at another SSW to take affect mid month into early April.. if that happens and we get another NAO block or AO couplet and the MJO looking to go to 8 then 1 Spring gets put on hold. You have to let the pattern wash out. Time will tell.Irish wrote:dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?
I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.
From JB
East Based NAO and AK PV sits over it bottling up the cold
NAO slides down over Hudson Bay = colder, stormy weather possibilities. Now is there enough cold air for snow that remains to be seen. Old Farmer Almanac (or is it the regar one) is calling for EC blizzard 3rd week of March.
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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