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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Empty Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:40 pm

This isn't a spring look sorry, TPV over this region and may send a good interior thump tjis weekend and as it lifts we can see something brewing midweek that maybe winters last stand. Keep an eye on this.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Eu9fpw10
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Eu9fpj10

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:42 am

See the evolution next week - IF the Western ridge amplifies - spikes up a bit then we may have a couple of shots to end winter with a bang.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Eu_m-UTXEAAaq5E?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by Irish Wed Feb 24, 2021 5:17 pm

@amugs wrote:See the evolution next week - IF the Western ridge amplifies - spikes up a bit then we may have a couple of shots to end winter with a bang.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Eu_m-UTXEAAaq5E?format=jpg&name=medium

That'd be great but I was smelling spring in the air today.

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Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:12 pm

All eyes are upon you, Mugs. Deliver the goods.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:45 am


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:07 am



End of next week time frame ingredients are there

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:19 am

@dkodgis wrote:All eyes are upon you, Mugs.  Deliver the goods.

In Mugs we trust
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:48 am

I'll try my best peeps to get one more or two before we close this season out.
Next week - get this to go phase/connect up and we have a nice East Coast Storm.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 EvFgG4TXIAMsutP?format=png&name=medium

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 EvFgNBKXEAQzEft?format=png&name=medium

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:48 am

@amugs wrote:

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:54 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.  

A friend of mine pays WeatherWorks for forecasts, they already warned him about a 20" snowstorm on the 5th! geek

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:58 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.  

A friend of mine pays WeatherWorks for forecasts, they already warned him about a 20" snowstorm on the 5th! geek

So precise! lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:18 pm

Very interesting look atm on the 12Z CMC for March 5th-6th. I like my chances with a 975mb low off the coats the first week of March, even if it shows mostly rain for now.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Gem_ms10
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:22 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Very interesting look atm on the 12Z CMC for March 5th-6th. I like my chances with a 975mb low off the coats the first week of March, even if it shows mostly rain for now.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Gem_ms10

There is a +PNA spike in the ensemble means, combined with a negative NAO and possible favorable MJO phases.  If true this will lead to a significant storm to develop alog the coast somewhere.  Oobv the details of which, ie: precip types for who and where, will be ironed out in time.  But the storm signal for the time frame 5th-8th is def there..for now.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:05 pm

But this Sat and Sun looks like rain. Oh boy. flooding
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Post by Irish Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:37 am

Spring is a'coming oh yeah!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:56 pm

March 5th-8th:

Subtle but important differences regarding the Euro ensembles vs GFS ensembles.  The GEFS would be a much warmer soln to any storm that tries to develop during this time frame, because we would get modified Pac air with this look involved similar to the problems we were having in January, esp the first half.  However the euro(EPS) has a steeper ridge out west and a better position to the NAO ridge so there is a deeper cold air source involved.  It will be interesting to see how this evolves.  

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Gfs-en20
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Ecmwf-62

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:07 pm

From Peakbegger on another board.
MJO goes into favorable phases for snow n cold in March. Dont shoot the messengers but as I said to JMAN you are not washing out all tjis deep level arctic cold and snowpack overhead and to our NW and W like that. Beginning of March is a mix of moderate to cold days. IF tjis MJO does happen which VP 200 maps sayd so as of now winter will take a stand or have a good ending to the show ...maybe Grand??

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Untitled.png.95232e9302088a4fbcdc0410c99c9e07

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:53 am

Watch the 3/7 time frame. Ensembles hinting at a storm well to offshore with cold air in place. Not a strong threat at this time, but model error 8 days out is quite high, so let's see where it goes in the next three days or so.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:33 am

EURO hinting at this and GFS is now too, blocking moving up in time - watch this period after an up and down  week upcoming.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 1615096800-a3Fv7zrryXY

Nice place to be 8 days out on the SE Biased GFS
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 67C99443-AB0D-453F-8611-FD168A787F31.png.eebd1516661fcd38f7bb2fd62fe8bdd2

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:35 am

Yep the gfs twins are very close. Actually the gfs 16 is a long Island special with clown map showing a foot of snow
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:19 pm

A drop in the NAO and rise in the PNA definitely interesting around March 7. With a modest drop in NAO I would expect closer to BM track. Models won't have a reliable handle on this until 5 days out IMO.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Nao10
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Pna10

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Post by dkodgis Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:58 am

It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?
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Post by Irish Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:25 am

@dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:41 pm

@dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

it's not warmth that is killing next weekend's threat, it's cold enough but models have trended weaker with the low and well to the south of our area. It then warms up after that and before you know it we are in the middle of March and the chances of snow become less likely.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:38 pm

@Irish wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.
Irish yes it is but you want warmth, 43 and rain is not warm. 53 and sun is warm tnis time of year yes. April not so much. March is always a volitale month and we will have cold and warm periods alike this.month. Models are hinting at another SSW to take affect mid month into early April.. if that happens and we get another NAO block or AO couplet and the MJO looking to go to 8 then 1 Spring gets put on hold. You have to let the pattern wash out. Time will tell.

From JB
East Based NAO and AK PV sits over it bottling up the cold
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Evws-s10
NAO slides down over Hudson Bay = colder, stormy weather possibilities. Now is there enough cold air for snow that remains to be seen. Old Farmer Almanac (or is it the regar one) is calling for EC blizzard 3rd week of March.
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 13 Evws_n10

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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