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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:35 am

Great pictures jman with your daughter.Enjoy those magic moments , they are the most important things in life, happiness with your family.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:42 am

AccuWeather still believes.  Well based on the timestamp of the article, they may attempt a pin lower on the map this time.  Again, I hate to bash anyone but it's irresponsible to throw numbers on a map for specific areas at the lead time they are doing in this setup.  They could have easily hatched out a broad hatched area and then refine.  Maybe it's just me.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-foot-of-snow-on-the-way-for-nyc/896002

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Accuwe11

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:56 am

@heehaw453 wrote:AccuWeather still believes.  Well based on the timestamp of the article, they may attempt a pin lower on the map this time.  Again, I hate to bash anyone but it's irresponsible to throw numbers on a map for specific areas at the lead time they are doing in this setup.  They could have easily hatched out a broad hatched area and then refine.  Maybe it's just me.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-foot-of-snow-on-the-way-for-nyc/896002

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Accuwe11
I mean they are talking 2 days out tops it's not a outlandish lead time. But latest nam is a huge miss wayy to the south not even close to their map.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:57 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:AccuWeather still believes.  Well based on the timestamp of the article, they may attempt a pin lower on the map this time.  Again, I hate to bash anyone but it's irresponsible to throw numbers on a map for specific areas at the lead time they are doing in this setup.  They could have easily hatched out a broad hatched area and then refine.  Maybe it's just me.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-foot-of-snow-on-the-way-for-nyc/896002

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Accuwe11
I mean they are talking 2 days out tops it's not a outlandish lead time.

This has been on their site for 36 hours.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:55 am

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:AccuWeather still believes.  Well based on the timestamp of the article, they may attempt a pin lower on the map this time.  Again, I hate to bash anyone but it's irresponsible to throw numbers on a map for specific areas at the lead time they are doing in this setup.  They could have easily hatched out a broad hatched area and then refine.  Maybe it's just me.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-foot-of-snow-on-the-way-for-nyc/896002

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Accuwe11
I mean they are talking 2 days out tops it's not a outlandish lead time.

This has been on their site for 36 hours.

Interestingly, Accuweather has me getting 4-8" of snow Thursday. I say interestingly, because there isn't a single major model run right now that shows me getting more than a couple inches Thursday. And it is only two days away. Are they seeing something we and the models are all missing, or are they asleep at the switch?
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:03 am

What does Rayno have to say about this? That is irresponsible if they keep this on today without anything to back it up.

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:07 am

@amugs wrote:What does Rayno have to say about this? That is irresponsible if they keep this on today without anything to back it up.

They took it down.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:11 am

Probably the latter Bill. NJ 101 just announced S Jersey to get 4-6” Thursday. That was yesterday’s news. By tomorrow they’ll have it down to showers to a coating to reflect today’s model runs. lol.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:15 am

The threat period is not dead in the water IMO. There is a ridge that could push the moisture north from one of the waves. What the models show now is probably not going to verify. It's just highly uncertain at this point as to where the moisture train rides to.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:19 am

@billg315 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:AccuWeather still believes.  Well based on the timestamp of the article, they may attempt a pin lower on the map this time.  Again, I hate to bash anyone but it's irresponsible to throw numbers on a map for specific areas at the lead time they are doing in this setup.  They could have easily hatched out a broad hatched area and then refine.  Maybe it's just me.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-foot-of-snow-on-the-way-for-nyc/896002

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Accuwe11
I mean they are talking 2 days out tops it's not a outlandish lead time.

This has been on their site for 36 hours.

Interestingly, Accuweather has me getting 4-8" of snow Thursday. I say interestingly, because there isn't a single major model run right now that shows me getting more than a couple inches Thursday. And it is only two days away. Are they seeing something we and the models are all missing, or are they asleep at the switch?

They even have me at 2-4 inches Thursday night and I haven't seen one model in the last 24 hours that even gets a flake up here on Thursday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:56 pm

What the heck?

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:36 am

WOW Lake Erie - talk about a rise or rapid freeze over

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 E2020_2021_ice



And this my goodness this is barbaric cold - yes I know it gets cold but come  on this is just off the charts
https://electroverse.net/record-cold-in-moscow-eiffel-tower-ice-autobahn-chaos-in-germany-summer-chills-in-australia/
RECORD COLD INVADES MOSCOW
As reported by themoscowtimes.com, western Russia has been hit by bitter cold this week, and has joined central and eastern regions which have been battered by brutal Arctic lows of -58.3C (-73F) and beyond for months now

Canadian Prairies YIKES!!



Last edited by amugs on Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:19 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:37 am

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 EtscX9MXUAAYxVE?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:39 am

OKAY THIS IS REMARKABLE!!! -5 in TEXAS - people will die for this cold - scary and down into the Gulf sub freezing!!
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Et37fKWWQAIL5Je?format=png&name=medium

Freezing rain on the biggest oil industry refinery - watch gasoline prices go through teh roof - hell since Jan 1 they are up ,50 cents a gallon that's a 25% increase - it WILL trickle down and up to food, other goods and services as well. Inflation here we come - hopefully it will not be like the 70's - remember those years peeps!!!

Dr Roy Spencer latest Global temps - down ward trend continues - AL Gore must be going bonkers mad!!

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 UAH_LT_1979_thru_January_2021_v6

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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:07 am

Climate Change: Global Temperature
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Planet-warming trend continues: 2020 closes hottest decade on record – UN weather agency
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080882
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:27 am

Here's your gas price chart for 6 months - truth be told

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Et4MnK9UYAE6K28?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:22 pm

7.7 EQ in South Pacific


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Post by TheAresian Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:22 pm

@amugs wrote:OKAY THIS IS REMARKABLE!!! -5 in TEXAS - people will die for this cold - scary and down into the Gulf sub freezing!!
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Et37fKWWQAIL5Je?format=png&name=medium

Freezing rain on the biggest oil industry refinery - watch gasoline prices go through teh roof - hell since Jan 1 they are up ,50 cents a gallon that's a 25% increase - it WILL trickle down and up to food, other goods and services as well. Inflation here we come - hopefully it will not be like the 70's - remember those years peeps!!!

Dr Roy Spencer latest Global temps - down ward trend continues - AL Gore must be going bonkers mad!!

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 UAH_LT_1979_thru_January_2021_v6

I know how this ends, mugs. Global warming causes the polar ice caps to melt which in turns disrupts the North Atlantic current, thus removing our temperate climate and freezing everything. Then Randy Quaid saves NYC and everybody begins to move to Mexico. I saw it in "The Day After Tomorrow". When it does finally hit the fan, head to a library in NYC, grab a bunch of books to burn and look for Jake Gyllenhaal.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:28 pm

This gentlemen is  extremely thorough and independent researcher on this topic that ties into his Geomagnetic Cycle along with terrestrial/planetary research he has performed. Written a number of books used at colleges on this. No he is not tied to ANY federal or international grant money.
Worth the 3 minute watch

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:32 pm

@TheAresian wrote:
@amugs wrote:OKAY THIS IS REMARKABLE!!! -5 in TEXAS - people will die for this cold - scary and down into the Gulf sub freezing!!
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Et37fKWWQAIL5Je?format=png&name=medium

Freezing rain on the biggest oil industry refinery - watch gasoline prices go through teh roof - hell since Jan 1 they are up ,50 cents a gallon that's a 25% increase - it WILL trickle down and up to food, other goods and services as well. Inflation here we come - hopefully it will not be like the 70's - remember those years peeps!!!

Dr Roy Spencer latest Global temps - down ward trend continues - AL Gore must be going bonkers mad!!

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 UAH_LT_1979_thru_January_2021_v6

I know how this ends, mugs. Global warming causes the polar ice caps to melt which in turns disrupts the North Atlantic current, thus removing our temperate climate and freezing everything. Then Randy Quaid saves NYC and everybody begins to move to Mexico. I saw it in "The Day After Tomorrow". When it does finally hit the fan, head to a library in NYC, grab a bunch of books to burn and look for Jake Gyllenhaal.

OMG I think I just peed myself laughing at this!!! cheers cheers

Seriously though if the Beaufort Gyre dam breaks suddenly and exponentially this will happen very fast.
Texas is going to be a disaster with this cold as will the Bayou and Bama ! No heat nor insulation in their homes - plumbers pay dirt!

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:13 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:Climate Change: Global Temperature
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Planet-warming trend continues: 2020 closes hottest decade on record – UN weather agency
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080882

These sorts of articles are kind of funny when you think about it.  The title says it all.  "Hottest decade on record"  What record are they looking at?  Modern day records?  Well if that the case how many decades are actually "On record"?  If we go back to say 1860, around the civil war lets say, thats still only 16 decades worth of data.  And really since the satellite era (1950's) thats only 7 decades of data to compare.  Thats a pretty small sample size when your talking about a time scale thats in the hundreds of millions of decades for the planet. Now if you want to look at ice core data now vs say the last few hundred thousand years, STILL A DROP IN THE BUCKET ON EARTHS TIME SCALE, you can see there have been at least 3 probably 4 times in history that the global temps have been warmer than they are now.  And as you can see there is a clear cycle occurring.  Also take note in the graph how until recent times CO@ and spikes in temps have correlated very well in an almost 1:1 ratio.  However; the CO2 levels are currently off the charts but the temps are still flat lined(with year to year variability.  See Mugsy's graph on the much smaller time scale for the details).  That sharp spike you see close to present time was the 2012 super nino.  This graph gives us a smaple size of about 40,000 decades to look at.  Again relatively speaking still a small sample, but better.  

Unfort too many cont to deny all the other evidence staring them in the face of the natural cyclical nature of nature.  And once again (dead horse beaten) man made influences are definitely a part of the equation we are not behind the wheel.  We are merely the annoying kid in the back whining about needing to pee again, and wanting to stop for McDonald's or something.  Eventually we(planet earth) will get to where she is going(back into the cold period) and man will once again be humbled by the fact that we play a minuscule role overall compared to the big picture.  

Now back to tracking.

https://environmentcounts.org/ec-perspective-accounting-for-800000-years-of-climate-change/
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Temps10


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:01 pm

I like the whiny kid in the back having to pee or is...HANGRY (Hungry and angry cause yuor hungry !)analogy Scot - that is a good one!!

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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:05 pm

@amugs wrote:This gentlemen is  extremely thorough and independent researcher on this topic that ties into his Geomagnetic Cycle along with terrestrial/planetary research he has performed. Written a number of books used at colleges on this. No he is not tied to ANY federal or international grant money.
Worth the 3 minute watch

I try to keep an open mind and I did watch the video. I couldn't figure out who the researcher was from the video or the youtube channel ABOUT page, but a little googling brought up a number of stories about Suspicious0bservers and Ben Davidson, and neither seem to have such a good reputation.

It seems that Ben Davidson has no science training, has degree in economics from Denison University and a Juris Doctorate from Capital University Law School.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Suspicious0bservers

Suspicious0bservers is a Pseudoscientific Doomsday Cult
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fTLZTEE7mU

BEN DAVIDSON EXPOSED -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DFypd5NGS8

I'll spend some time when I can to explore this more.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:01 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:Climate Change: Global Temperature
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Planet-warming trend continues: 2020 closes hottest decade on record – UN weather agency
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080882

These sorts of articles are kind of funny when you think about it.  The title says it all.  "Hottest decade on record"  What record are they looking at?  Modern day records?  Well if that the case how many decades are actually "On record"?  If we go back to say 1860, around the civil war lets say, thats still only 16 decades worth of data.  And really since the satellite era (1950's) thats only 7 decades of data to compare.  Thats a pretty small sample size when your talking about a time scale thats in the hundreds of millions of decades for the planet. Now if you want to look at ice core data now vs say the last few hundred thousand years, STILL A DROP IN THE BUCKET ON EARTHS TIME SCALE, you can see there have been at least 3 probably 4 times in history that the global temps have been warmer than they are now.  And as you can see there is a clear cycle occurring.  Also take note in the graph how until recent times CO@ and spikes in temps have correlated very well in an almost 1:1 ratio.  However; the CO2 levels are currently off the charts but the temps are still flat lined(with year to year variability.  See Mugsy's graph on the much smaller time scale for the details).  That sharp spike you see close to present time was the 2012 super nino.  This graph gives us a smaple size of about 40,000 decades to look at.  Again relatively speaking still a small sample, but better.  

Unfort too many cont to deny all the other evidence staring them in the face of the natural cyclical nature of nature.  And once again (dead horse beaten) man made influences are definitely a part of the equation we are not behind the wheel.  We are merely the annoying kid in the back whining about needing to pee again, and wanting to stop for McDonald's or something.  Eventually we(planet earth) will get to where she is going(back into the cold period) and man will once again be humbled by the fact that we play a minuscule role overall compared to the big picture.  

Now back to tracking.

https://environmentcounts.org/ec-perspective-accounting-for-800000-years-of-climate-change/
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Temps10

Those ice core samples tell the tale.My standard answer , and if you heard this from me before, forgive an old man who repeats himself a lot (from my wife).At one time where I sat on the land my house is on in the LHV, I would be underwater.Then, there was 100 feet of ice.All long before man even walked the planet.The earth will do what it wants to do.As Doc says, there is some contribution due to CO2 and I agree with wind and solar, and in the interim, natural gas eliminating coal.I hope I live to see the day of autonomous EV's that I could rent by the hour to get around, thereby getting rid of 2 cars, eliminating mechanics and car insurance, and getting garage space for other uses.The bottom line is that if trillions are spent worldwide switching to alternative energy sources, the earth could pull a fast one and warm up as it did in many millenia ago.
Hilarious Doc, the whiney kid in the back seat.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:42 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@amugs wrote:This gentlemen is  extremely thorough and independent researcher on this topic that ties into his Geomagnetic Cycle along with terrestrial/planetary research he has performed. Written a number of books used at colleges on this. No he is not tied to ANY federal or international grant money.
Worth the 3 minute watch

I try to keep an open mind and I did watch the video. I couldn't figure out who the researcher was from the video or the youtube channel ABOUT page, but a little googling brought up a number of stories about Suspicious0bservers and Ben Davidson, and neither seem to have such a good reputation.

It seems that Ben Davidson has no science training, has degree in economics from Denison University and a Juris Doctorate from Capital University Law School.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Suspicious0bservers

Suspicious0bservers is a Pseudoscientific Doomsday Cult
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fTLZTEE7mU

BEN DAVIDSON EXPOSED -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DFypd5NGS8

I'll spend some time when I can to explore this more.

Ben Davidson gets attacked by the mainstream because he doesn't fall in line with what is being pushed.  Unfortunately google intentionally suppresses information that is conservative and contradictory to what story line is these days and highlights the narrative and the opposition to all those against the narrative.   He presents hundreds if not thousands of papers from actual climate researchers whos findings at the very least question the idea that man made global warming is the only explanation.  For some reason this information isnt at the forefront or at least discussed.  

Watch these video' and keep in mind this point.  This isnt a debate about man made global warming vs natural variation.  This is about not silencing the discussion.  For some reason people dont want to discuss other things.  Claim its pseudo science.  None sense.  

As a Dr myself I understand that science is never 100%.  Just when we think things are figured out we realize oops we now know more and our previous understanding has now evolved based on the new technology and data etc.   And with humans just scratching the surface of our understanding of the cosmos it is plain ignorance to claim we have it figured out.




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