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Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call

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Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Empty Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:43 pm

I call this the redemption storm for those who live south and east of NYC. Although everyone saw significant snow from the 2021 Roidzilla, there were definitely some near the coast that saw 2-3X less snow than those to the north.

GFS 500mb

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Gfs-500mb

NAM 500mb

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Nam-500mb

The NAM is showing an area-wide 8-12" snowstorm. A true Mothrazilla. The reason for that is how much it amplifies heights along the coast, allowing the upper air vorticity and SLP to track along the NJ shore. On the other hand, notice how the GFS is a bit more east with the trough. However, it has been trending west for at least 4 consecutive runs. If these trends continue, it will not be far off from the NAM. I would say the EURO is closer to the GFS than it is the NAM.

My snow map reflects a blend of the NAM and GFS/EURO, but my gut tells me we will not see this come much further NW in tonight or tomorrow's runs. The 250mb jet is too far south and east, and there is only partial phasing with the northern jet which is not enough to tug the low so much into the coast. This to me resembles a true southern stream low. It is likely to start as rain for the shore and SNJ before changing to snow. As the precip rates get heavier, the column will cool and gradually transition to snow. The snow will definitely be heavy at times. It is going to blanket the area quickly. It looks like an 8-10 hour storm.

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Feb-7th-1st-call

Obviously, I could be wrong with the track of the storm and it very well could keep trending more and more NW. If so, the jackpot area will expand further inland/north, but the risk of LESS snow would also grow for those along the immediate coast as warmer air invades. Let's see what tonight's models do.


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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:06 pm

Nice map
I wouldnt be shocked to see this bump northwest again tonight
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:11 pm

Good map Frank. I was thinking about just a broad 4-8" zone in between where you have the 1-3" zones, so this is in line with that, and probably better because I do think some areas just along I-95 could hit 10" if things go right.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:32 pm

This is a good first call. We can keep south and coast in and bump that yellow into here by literally 15 miles nw. I think I'll be close to 6 is my guess 3km nam was crazy higher for all and we can hope for that but unless we see major changes I think you have this one close if not spot on Frank.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:34 pm

Love it frank

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:33 pm

00z NAM still a nice hit. Maybe slightly east of 18z.

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 6e907c10

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:57 pm

Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Ad1a5c10
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 9ec8d710
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call F5992d10

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Ad1a5c10

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call F5992d10


Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 9ec8d710

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Ad1a5c10
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 9ec8d710
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call F5992d10
Im confused what you just wrote your concerned it will get too far NW but you expect it to go further SE tomorrow? So does that mean you expect totals to be even lower for NYC area or do you still think ur map is good?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:01 pm

Looks like I will want to be in eastern CT for this one which is where I just came home from today lol, go figure.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:03 pm

Wow
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Dcca3910
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:08 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Ad1a5c10
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 9ec8d710
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call F5992d10
Im confused what you just wrote your concerned it will get too far NW but you expect it to go further SE tomorrow? So does that mean you expect totals to be even lower for NYC area or do you still think ur map is good?

Might get lowered for coastal NJ and parts of LI

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:11 pm

@aiannone wrote:Wow
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Dcca3910
yeah 3km was a nuts run, dunno how much i buy it but I hope!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:15 pm

RGEM

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 34233910

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 34233910

Frank I think you hit the Vino a bit early. That’s Tuesday’s 12z run
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:22 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 34233910

Frank I think you hit the Vino a bit early. That’s Tuesday’s 12z run

Oh madonne

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 5c28cb10

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 34233910

Frank I think you hit the Vino a bit early. That’s Tuesday’s 12z run

Oh madonne

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call 5c28cb10

RGEM has been wavering for days. Hasn’t had one consistent run to run yet
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:28 pm

RGEM is one of the worst models ever

I would say SREFS are second worst. Maybe it’s tied

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM is one of the worst models ever

I would say SREFS are second worst. Maybe it’s tied

Honestly, King Nam so far this winter. And to give credit where it’s deserved, NAM was the first to bring this storm back to life
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:48 pm

0z GFS
Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call Sn10_a18
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:14 pm

Temps have been busting high. Still 40 degrees my low is 28. Today got up to 49.

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Post by Irish Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:03 am

A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for my area.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:54 am

WWA for Orange County For 3-6. Sounds a little optimistic but I’ll take it.

WSW for city for 5-7. Hoping they’re being a little conservative with that and they can get in 6- 9 range. Nitpicking I Know.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:18 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for Orange County For 3-6. Sounds a little optimistic but I’ll take it.

WSW for city for 5-7. Hoping they’re being a little conservative with that and they can get in 6- 9 range. Nitpicking I Know.

24 degrees.Latest GFS shows around four for us CP.WWA for 3 to 6, so maybe a chance for better.We are closer to a normal years snowfall here in the HV, so much better than last year.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:32 am

Winter storm warning for NYC
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