Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call

I call this the redemption storm for those who live south and east of NYC. Although everyone saw significant snow from the 2021 Roidzilla, there were definitely some near the coast that saw 2-3X less snow than those to the north.

GFS 500mb



NAM 500mb



The NAM is showing an area-wide 8-12" snowstorm. A true Mothrazilla. The reason for that is how much it amplifies heights along the coast, allowing the upper air vorticity and SLP to track along the NJ shore. On the other hand, notice how the GFS is a bit more east with the trough. However, it has been trending west for at least 4 consecutive runs. If these trends continue, it will not be far off from the NAM. I would say the EURO is closer to the GFS than it is the NAM.

My snow map reflects a blend of the NAM and GFS/EURO, but my gut tells me we will not see this come much further NW in tonight or tomorrow's runs. The 250mb jet is too far south and east, and there is only partial phasing with the northern jet which is not enough to tug the low so much into the coast. This to me resembles a true southern stream low. It is likely to start as rain for the shore and SNJ before changing to snow. As the precip rates get heavier, the column will cool and gradually transition to snow. The snow will definitely be heavy at times. It is going to blanket the area quickly. It looks like an 8-10 hour storm.



Obviously, I could be wrong with the track of the storm and it very well could keep trending more and more NW. If so, the jackpot area will expand further inland/north, but the risk of LESS snow would also grow for those along the immediate coast as warmer air invades. Let's see what tonight's models do.

Nice map
I wouldnt be shocked to see this bump northwest again tonight

Good map Frank. I was thinking about just a broad 4-8" zone in between where you have the 1-3" zones, so this is in line with that, and probably better because I do think some areas just along I-95 could hit 10" if things go right.

This is a good first call. We can keep south and coast in and bump that yellow into here by literally 15 miles nw. I think I'll be close to 6 is my guess 3km nam was crazy higher for all and we can hope for that but unless we see major changes I think you have this one close if not spot on Frank.

00z NAM still a nice hit. Maybe slightly east of 18z.

Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

@Frank_Wx wrote:Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

Im confused what you just wrote your concerned it will get too far NW but you expect it to go further SE tomorrow? So does that mean you expect totals to be even lower for NYC area or do you still think ur map is good?

Looks like I will want to be in eastern CT for this one which is where I just came home from today lol, go figure.

@jmanley32 wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:Negative trends with the upper level jet on last three runs of the NAM. Hence my concern for this to come too far NW like 12z/18z runs showed. Wouldn’t shock me to see this tick even more SE tomorrow.

Im confused what you just wrote your concerned it will get too far NW but you expect it to go further SE tomorrow? So does that mean you expect totals to be even lower for NYC area or do you still think ur map is good?

Might get lowered for coastal NJ and parts of LI

@aiannone wrote:Wow

yeah 3km was a nuts run, dunno how much i buy it but I hope!!

RGEM

@aiannone wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM

Frank I think you hit the Vino a bit early. That’s Tuesday’s 12z run

Oh madonne

RGEM is one of the worst models ever

I would say SREFS are second worst. Maybe it’s tied

Temps have been busting high. Still 40 degrees my low is 28. Today got up to 49.

A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for my area.

WWA for Orange County For 3-6. Sounds a little optimistic but I’ll take it.

WSW for city for 5-7. Hoping they’re being a little conservative with that and they can get in 6- 9 range. Nitpicking I Know.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for Orange County For 3-6. Sounds a little optimistic but I’ll take it.

WSW for city for 5-7. Hoping they’re being a little conservative with that and they can get in 6- 9 range. Nitpicking I Know.

24 degrees.Latest GFS shows around four for us CP.WWA for 3 to 6, so maybe a chance for better.We are closer to a normal years snowfall here in the HV, so much better than last year.

Winter storm warning for NYC