Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for Orange County For 3-6. Sounds a little optimistic but I’ll take it.

WSW for city for 5-7. Hoping they’re being a little conservative with that and they can get in 6- 9 range. Nitpicking I Know.

24 degrees.Latest GFS shows around four for us CP.WWA for 3 to 6, so maybe a chance for better.We are closer to a normal years snowfall here in the HV, so much better than last year.

Winter storm warning for NYC

Great map and thanks for including the Beantown area!!

00z top and 06z gfs bottom. Notice how on the 06z the 250mb jet streak is elongated and more south from where it was on 00z. This is why we’re seeing a low track more SE with less impressive snow accumulations. That said, I think we see a slight bump NW today but it won’t change much. I’m still comfortable with my first forecast map, but I’m inclined to change the range within the gold zone from 6-10 to 4-8. I’m going to give it another set of model runs.

12Z NAM is a nice event for the area. It's not going to drop much more than 8" most likely as it's moving so fast.

3K NAM says 1-3" hr snowfall rates for.most of NJ ....again

Money, take er to da bank here peeps

Solid event for all of NJ 4-8" range on morning 6z runs

I agree with Frank's initial thought this morning. The initial first call map is solid, but I think a broader zone of 4-8 (instead of 3-6"/6-10") probably makes sense as with the storm moving quickly it is going to be tough to exceed 8" in most places.

It this puppy was slower my goodness we'd have now where to put the snow!! Beautiful 700mb map

If the last storm was behaving like the house guest who wouldn't leave, lingering around, this storm is behaving like the person on a date that has gone completely sideways and is having a friend call their cellphone to give them an excuse to get out ASAP.

Doesn't look like the 12z gfs has changed much from the 6z. Areas with slightly more moisture to the south and east are mixing with rain and those that stay all snow are somewhat moisture starved. Result is snowfall totals on the lower end of the range. NAM definitely is a juicier solution.

Very quiet here considering we have a storm impacting the area tomorrow morning. I guess it has been resolved that it is not going to be as much snow as previously thought? Are we still looking at a 6am start time? 4-6 inches by me?

Fededle22 wrote:Very quiet here considering we have a storm impacting the area tomorrow morning. I guess it has been resolved that it is not going to be as much snow as previously thought?  Are we still looking at a 6am start time? 4-6 inches by me?

It’s a sunny and warm day! I will have my final forecast out in a couple of hours. Here’s the EURO



The sun feels pretty strong and this storm is coming in the middle of the day. I will definitely be cutting the 6-10 zone...likely in half.

Sometimes the trend is you’re formed and sometimes not. Since last nights 0Z’s came out for the most part this isn’t s trending weaker and drier.

Radar looks juicer down south than projected

Frank_Wx wrote:

Fededle22 wrote:Very quiet here considering we have a storm impacting the area tomorrow morning. I guess it has been resolved that it is not going to be as much snow as previously thought?  Are we still looking at a 6am start time? 4-6 inches by me?

It’s a sunny and warm day! I will have my final forecast out in a couple of hours. Here’s the EURO



The sun feels pretty strong and this storm is coming in the middle of the day. I will definitely be cutting the 6-10 zone...likely in half.

Good idea, all other outlets have done the same.

Final call

I think that final call is going to do very well. Fast mover. I could see ELI and the Cape getting clipped with more if this blows up quicker.

The convection has formed is far far greater and showing the latent heat response to the jet and the forcing. Models have not shown tjis convection well except for the NAM models.

Upton even talks about about tjis in their latest update . Here's E
A little agreesive the 5-9" I'd say 4-8" but splitting hairs.

Upton:
One concern with the global models is that they are
not handling the banding potential well and are over smoothing the
liquid equivalent amounts. The GFS shows excellent lift in the
dendritic growth zone (-12C to -18C) even as far north as the Lower
Hudson Valley where current forecast liquid amounts are lower.
Frontogenesis on the NW side or colder side of the middle level low
is impressive for about a 3-6 hour period from late morning into the
afternoon across much of the region. The mesoscale models agree with
this lift, but are stronger in magnitude and therefore higher in
snowfall/banding potential.
Basically saying we are going with SR models like the NAMs.

HREF ensemble is impressive but overdone is day? Based on WRF and NMB weightings?

amugs wrote:HREF ensemble is impressive but overdone is day? Based on WRF and NMB weightings?

NWS is taking only SR models, I think we see the higher end of 3-6 and some spots higher than that. Only place NWS disagrees with franks bap is suffolk county and eadtern CT to beantown could see 6 to 9. If the storm blows up just a bit quicker some of us from NYC on east could see 6-9 IMO just going by SR models. mugs whats the href? or was that your code again for SREF?

amugs wrote:The convection has formed is far far greater and showing the latent heat response to the jet and the forcing. Models have not shown tjis convection well except for the NAM models.

Upton even talks about about tjis in their latest update . Here's E
A little agreesive the 5-9" I'd say 4-8" but splitting hairs.

Upton:
One concern with the global models is that they are
not handling the banding potential well and are over smoothing the
liquid equivalent amounts. The GFS shows excellent lift in the
dendritic growth zone (-12C to -18C) even as far north as the Lower
Hudson Valley where current forecast liquid amounts are lower.
Frontogenesis on the NW side or colder side of the middle level low
is impressive for about a 3-6 hour period from late morning into the
afternoon across much of the region. The mesoscale models agree with
this lift, but are stronger in magnitude and therefore higher in
snowfall/banding potential.
Basically saying we are going with SR  models like the NAMs.

For my area anyways spot on with my winter storm warning, 5-9.

Fededle22 wrote:Very quiet here considering we have a storm impacting the area tomorrow morning. I guess it has been resolved that it is not going to be as much snow as previously thought?  Are we still looking at a 6am start time? 4-6 inches by me?

yeah people are out and about, I guess it was nice I missed out. Tonight I think the posts will start especially with the observations and nowcasting starting, we are already as stated seeing stronger convection to the south than was expected by this time stamp, i think there may be surprises for some.

This convection is a very good sign that globals are not seeing and are not were not modeled properly at this time. What does it mean? A juicier system that will raise the heights a tid bit tad more IMO and allow a NW tick Thus bring the amounts towards the higher end of the range of forecasts. Just an observation.

https://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ma3compjs.html

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php