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Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:48 am

There are a couple of shots for more snowfall on Tuesday and Thursday next week. Let’s use this thread to discuss and analyze those events.

The one on Tuesday resembles a clipper-style that doesn’t have a very high ceiling. Fast moving clippers generally have a max of 3-6 inches. The GFS tracks this clipper north of the area which results in rain for NYC and south, while the ICON has it going south of us which keeps us all cold enough to snow.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th E9355610

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th F2526e10

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th 0a828910

Notice with the 500mb map how the strongest PvA is north of our area on Tuesday afternoon. The Polar Vortex is near the Hudson Bay and trying to press down to the SE. This “press” is essential because it combats the SE Ridge and keeps our area below freezing. But the GFS isn’t feeling the press, so the storm finds a path of least resistance that is NW of us. The NAM agrees with the GFS. The CMC tracks the low right over NYC and the ICON (shown above) is the furthest south. My guess is the PV is actually too far NW, which gives room for this clipper to track NW and bring most of us a very light rainfall. However, low level cold may still be intact for area NW of NYC to see a couple of inches.

The possible storm two days later is a different animal. This one sees the aforementioned Polar Vortex drop south near the US/Canada border. A strong piece of upper level energy ejects out of the SW CONUS and marches toward our area. With confluence and the PV to the north, there may not be room for it to cut. If it does, a secondary low may try to form off the coast. Sound familiar? It should, because that’s what occurred with the Roidzilla storm.

This threat remains a bit away and models can’t get a handle on the PV. If the PV is too far north then the SE ridge flexes. Once that happens the storm is likely to cut to our west and we all warm up. Also, models show the PV elongating across the US-CAN border. There is confluence in New England, but again, is it enough? These questions won’t get answered until the final days leading up to the storm. All we can do is monitor trends this weekend then on Monday we’ll begin looking deeper at the pattern.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:56 am

Wow, this is like a REAL winter lol 3 potential storms in one week. So 4-8 tomorrow, possibly 3-6 midweek and then a potential for a big storm, we will be buried, havent seen that in ages, lets say that the 3rd storm ends up being a monster if i saw another 20 inches of snow this would rival the biggest snow since ive been on this board, that would be amazing even if its small my totals are climbing steadily to the top 2 or 3..
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:06 am

Very active pattern and plenty of cold air which is good. But let's temper expectations just a bit to keep anyone from being disappointed. Frank said clippers generally have a "max" upside of 3-6"; "max" is a key word there. In this case Frank points out some models show a "warmer" track (more rain) and even if it takes a track to our south there's no guarantee with a clipper that we get that "max" upside. Often we get less. The Tuesday system might at best be a 2-4" event and maybe just a slop-fest. So we'll have to see what the next 24 hours holds on the model runs.
But definitely a lot to track in the coming week.
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Post by dsix85 Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:10 am

Frank- when does the sun angle start being a factor during these storms?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:15 am

@billg315 wrote:Very active pattern and plenty of cold air which is good. But let's temper expectations just a bit to keep anyone from being disappointed. Frank said clippers generally have a "max" upside of 3-6"; "max" is a key word there. In this case Frank points out some models show a "warmer" track (more rain) and even if it takes a track to our south there's no guarantee with a clipper that we get that "max" upside. Often we get less. The Tuesday system might at best be a 2-4" event and maybe just a slop-fest. So we'll have to see what the next 24 hours holds on the model runs.
But definitely a lot to track in the coming week.
Yeah it was totally a what if statement i made, but the fact that we are tracking so much,
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Post by Rooster89 Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:36 am

@dsix85 wrote:Frank- when does the sun angle start being a factor during these storms?

Hopefully soon. I’m ready for spring lol.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:32 pm

Clippers love to make the I78 run or I80 run tjis time of year.
Coastals like to ride the boundary that is there between cold air and warmer ocean temps.
Listen we have Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and next Tuesday. This pattern may just may set up for another monster towards a relaxation( keep that in mind)

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:34 pm

@Rooster89 wrote:
@dsix85 wrote:Frank- when does the sun angle start being a factor during these storms?

Hopefully soon. I’m ready for spring lol.

Rooster usually the 3ed week of Feb 20thh on. But if you have deep arctic air it doesn't matter 2015 and March of 2018 showed this very well besides other times of course.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:15 pm

As long as it starts to warm up and yard sales start (this is my side husstle while I look for new full time work (laid off due to covid and not hired back), I buy and resell on ebay and FB market, it quite lucrative if you have the experience and time I have) in mid to late march I am good, meanwhile bring on the winter.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:12 am

If you are fortunate enough to stay below the baroclinic zone in the next 4/5 days, then you are going to be getting a lot of snow. It will set up anywhere from LHV to Mason Dixon Line IMO. Not possible to pinpoint at this range.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:08 am

@heehaw453 wrote:If you are fortunate enough to stay below the baroclinic zone in the next 4/5 days, then you are going to be getting a lot of snow.  It will set up anywhere from LHV to Mason Dixon Line IMO.  Not possible to pinpoint at this range.

Anyone know a place where I can at least place a bet on EXACTLY where that line sets up! lol!!  Laughing Rolling Eyes Very Happy

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:27 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:If you are fortunate enough to stay below the baroclinic zone in the next 4/5 days, then you are going to be getting a lot of snow.  It will set up anywhere from LHV to Mason Dixon Line IMO.  Not possible to pinpoint at this range.

Anyone know a place where I can at least place a bet on EXACTLY where that line sets up! lol!!  Laughing Rolling Eyes Very Happy

You know I'd much rather be on the arctic boundary than on the very cold side of it. Deep in the arctic side won't be in the game for winter storms. Our area is at least in the game and not just one threat. But yes it will be great to be on the cold side of it! I don't want a lot of ice and that is a risk too.

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:51 am

Tuesday for a nice little refresher anyone? Like a nice G&T with a lime..wedge or T & S with a few twists of lemon??
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:25 pm

Euro says HI
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th Etpiv-10

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:42 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro says HI
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th Etpiv-10
Whats the 11th look like? Another 2 inches there for NYC metro, this winter is cra cra!! Not including whatever falls rest of day already at 36 inches total!
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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:57 pm

KEEP THE PACK. We can wait to add on thursday. For now, as long as Tuesday isnt heavy rain, ill take whatever,
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Post by Irish Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:39 pm

I'm seeing snow from Wednesday through Friday morning, early calls are saying 6-12.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:42 pm

@Irish wrote:I'm seeing snow from Wednesday through Friday morning, early calls are saying 6-12.  

It will depend on where the baroclinic zone sets up. Whoever is in the sweet spot will probably approach 1' of snow. The moisture will ride that pathway like a train on a rail. A few years back Boston was in the sweet spot for about 1 month and received 100" of snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:51 pm

I updated the SCI - man this is going to be another wild week

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:23 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I updated the SCI - man this is going to be another wild week
Keep it coming we’re on an absolute roll right now. There’s no telling when we might get this favorable pattern again.
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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I updated the SCI - man this is going to be another wild week

Euro is furthest south with Tuesday and keeps most of the area snow. Nam is furthest north And is rain for most of this board south of 95 in CT. Gfs is somewhat in the middle. Let’s see if we can keep this all frozen.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:39 pm

18z NAM Tuesday

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th Namconus_asnowd_neus_21

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:42 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@Irish wrote:I'm seeing snow from Wednesday through Friday morning, early calls are saying 6-12.  

It will depend on where the baroclinic zone sets up.  Whoever is in the sweet spot will probably approach 1' of snow.  The moisture will ride that pathway like a train on a rail.  A few years back Boston was in the sweet spot for about 1 month and received 100" of snow.
which storm is gonna give up to a foot? The next one looks to be a few inches maybe 4 at most, or do you mean all combined? This is nuts I haven't seen a scene like this in years.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM Tuesday

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th Namconus_asnowd_neus_21
LOL I think I can handle a 10th of a inch, sure you want that SCI so high frank? a inch in central park doesn't look to happen on that run.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:47 pm

Holy crap GFS from tues to sunday 14th, shave off 3-4 as GFS still has some from today, so yeah a foot total and 14th looks to have potential for a lot more. G word maybe?

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