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Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:57 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Grselig wrote:
@amugs wrote:GFS Happy Hours  drunken  drunken  drunken anyone - WOWZA!!!!!! Lets see if EURO follows suit.

Ratio Map here peeps

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 9C9414E1-23A5-4BB8-9C29-FF2C88734BE3.png.4eeaf0dbe71868e613fc5b6abfd969c7

Love it!!!!!😊😊But Crapola.

Well, i did not say crapola ha

That word is not permitted to be said in this forum

It’s terrible.

I believe the word is Kooch-Hair-Ah

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:00 pm

@amugs wrote:Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 StormTotalSnowWeb1.png.b6a53010d046f9d78d03060cc8353d0a

This closely mirrors my forecast as well. I have low confidence considering how Mondays storm trended (dry).

But there’s more juice with this one. Better vorticity and jet above.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:01 pm

There seems to be some confusion. It will precipitate tomorrow, dry on Friday then we’re focusing on a possible weekend storm (mid Saturday into Sunday).

The weekend storm at the moment looks like another minor event. The storm we are currently tracking in the long range thread is for next Tuesday.


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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:24 pm

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 Animate

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:28 pm

Radar definitely looks stout for tonight's event.
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:37 pm

I’m thinking (hoping?) this area represents the jackpot zone, such as it is for tonight anyways.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 01f43210

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:38 pm

Once again convective activities that were not modeled = juicier and wetter system. Positive pluses possibly incoming folks. All that latent heat and moisture bodes well with a stout and increasing jet streak overhead


Last edited by amugs on Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by phil155 Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:There seems to be some confusion. It will precipitate tomorrow, dry on Friday then we’re focusing on a possible weekend storm (mid Saturday into Sunday).

The weekend storm at the moment looks like another minor event. The storm we are currently tracking in the long range thread is for next Tuesday.

Thank you for clarifying that, I appreciate it

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:19 pm

WOW EURO concurs with GFS on this one

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 73EDC5A9-51EC-4D5E-A93C-104526F3D5BA.png.aae5d182a4eb07397f1ca23bdfac2628


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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:32 pm

@amugs wrote:WOW EURO concurs with GFS on this one

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 73EDC5A9-51EC-4D5E-A93C-104526F3D5BA.png.aae5d182a4eb07397f1ca23bdfac2628


Now post the non crappy version shout

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:34 pm

HRRR

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 Sn10_acc.us_ne

EURO

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 DEB38A27-50F0-4828-AB88-CA579AC52F33.png.83575721bd9589f9cc8b1c6d1694c69f

GFS

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 4D7CB03F-8823-4E2C-B08F-CEC665323917.png.122fc67919531e5b908b61311eb44142

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:WOW EURO concurs with GFS on this one

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 73EDC5A9-51EC-4D5E-A93C-104526F3D5BA.png.aae5d182a4eb07397f1ca23bdfac2628


Now post the non crappy version shout

LMAO!! I'm just picturing Frank's head exploding right now. C'mon folks this is not good for his blood pressure. Laughing
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Post by hyde345 Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:52 pm

I'm expecting a dusting to 1/2 inch here in the north country.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:58 pm

@Frank_Wx meeting with NJStrong Forum members to discuss acceptable snow maps:
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 F76f4210
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:01 pm

It's not a 10:1 snowfall but I'll oblige to my superior LOL

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 DEB38A27-50F0-4828-AB88-CA579AC52F33.png.83575721bd9589f9cc8b1c6d1694c69f

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:21 pm

@billg315 wrote:@Frank_Wx meeting with NJStrong Forum members to discuss acceptable snow maps:
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 F76f4210

I laughed out loud

Thank you lol!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:21 pm

Here we go

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:23 pm

http://meteocentre.com/radar/weather-radar.php?area=qc&anim=1&lang=en

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:25 pm

Kinda sucks that most of tomorrow’s snow falls in the overnight hours. I can see this being over by 8-9am for some people more north. Heaviest snow will be 1am-7am

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:25 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Here we go

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

Precip shield developing nicely as it heads East
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:43 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:WOW EURO concurs with GFS on this one

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 73EDC5A9-51EC-4D5E-A93C-104526F3D5BA.png.aae5d182a4eb07397f1ca23bdfac2628


Now post the non crappy version shout

LMAO!! I'm just picturing Frank's head exploding right now. C'mon folks this is not good for his blood pressure. Laughing

That’s what the vino is for told ya lol!

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:52 pm

Here is the 0z GREM for tonight/tomorrow. All the mesoscale models show a pretty similar result. It looks like there is still some disagreement as to how long the storm sticks around for, the 12K NAM has southern coastal NJ  snowing as late as 2 pm.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 Nam11

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:36 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:Here is the 0z GREM for tonight/tomorrow. All the mesoscale models show a pretty similar result. It looks like there is still some disagreement as to how long the storm sticks around for, the 12K NAM has southern coastal NJ  snowing as late as 2 pm.  

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 10 Nam11

hope you wake up to a beautiful surprise(or maybe you did not sleep? lol) I woke up this morning to 2 inches of beautiful new snow blanket...
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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:42 am

Congratulations frank ur the winner LOL 😂 I only got a 1 inch of ❄

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Post by brownie Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:50 am

1.25” of snow here this morning, and I think it’s over now.

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