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Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:26 am

so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:28 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by lglickman1 Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:28 am

How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:29 am

@lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look?  Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
I think the 14th storm has potential to be a bigger event, correct me if im wrong.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:01 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look?  Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?

It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium
Thursday into Friday
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:27 pm

@amugs wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look?  Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?

It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium
Thursday into Friday
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium

I'm pretty sure what you posted above is the total snowfall through 7PM Wednesday Mugs, which would really just be tomorrows event. WTS that's pretty aggressive and I'm all in.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:35 pm

@amugs wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look?  Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?

It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium
Thursday into Friday
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium
Did you mean to show the map twice? Is one supposed to be tomorrows? And if so can you post tomorrows kooci moochie map lmao thats hilarious.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:37 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look?  Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?

It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium
Thursday into Friday
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuAR4wXUAQ_now?format=jpg&name=medium

I'm pretty sure what you posted above is the total snowfall through 7PM Wednesday Mugs, which would really just be tomorrows event. WTS that's pretty aggressive and I'm all in.
I am sure you are CP lol, yeah im cool with that too but it could scoot south and benefit the metro area and still give you the bulk, im on the cusp of 6" and thats kinda when I consider it a real storm, anything less is a dusting lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:56 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?

Ratios are 10:1 for you and the city

They are higher Sullivan and Orange counties, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in NJ

3-6 north of I-80
2-4 between 80 and 78
Little to one inch south of 78

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:12 pm

EURO comes on BOARD!! TOOT TOOT!!

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuR8ybXIAI2xwa?format=jpg&name=medium


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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:13 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?

Ratios are 10:1 for you and the city

They are higher Sullivan and Orange counties, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in NJ

3-6 north of I-80
2-4 between 80 and 78
Little to one inch south of 78

Did yuo guys confer?

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuNYXvWYAExcFd?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:13 pm

12z EURO misses the wednesday/thursday storm
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:31 pm

Accuweather trying to play pin the tail on the donkey with this forecast IMO.  I think anywhere from Mason Dixon Line to NE has a shot at > 8" of snow with this (Wed night-Friday), but it's just too early to throw out numbers for an area IMO.  

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Accuwe10

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?

Ratios are 10:1 for you and the city

They are higher Sullivan and Orange counties, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in NJ

3-6 north of I-80
2-4 between 80 and 78
Little to one inch south of 78
So I had to look up these highways cuz I am not from NJ (wish you would put in NY highways lol, it appears I am north of I-80 but only by maybe 10-15 miles, is that enough to get into the 3-6? or should I say 2-6 being I am not that far north from I-80 but I am quite far north from I-78.  And what is the start time of this?


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:29 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather trying to play pin the tail on the donkey with this forecast IMO.  I think anywhere from Mason Dixon Line to NE has a shot at > 8" of snow with this (Wed night-Friday), but it's just too early to throw out numbers for an area IMO.  

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Accuwe10
wow where do I sign? It is a tad early for them to be calling but then again it is only 2-3 days away, and for tomorrow I would think WSW or at least advisories would be up by now. Strange. Thats JUST for the 11th storm? Where are they seeing these kind of tottals for NYC area, did I miss a model? Nonetheless its crazy we are going boom boom boom day after day with snow, its amazing. The snow pack here is higher than i remember in at least 4-5 yrs and the cold did not ice it over its still fluffy unless you step in it then it compacts and its perfect snowball and snowman snow.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:15 pm

18Z NAM is south.
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Post by oldtimer Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:26 pm

Is that good for me in Port Jefferson that Nam is South?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:27 pm

Wow i wasn't even pay attention to the nam, it had much of the area out of any snow at 12z and 18z as nutley said came way south, has rain into NYC area at one point, do you guys think that happens?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:33 pm

18Z NAM snow map, without ratios.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Namcon14
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:47 pm

WWA up for my area now.NWS staying with 2 to 4 inches.Frank's 3 to 6 has a shot.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:05 pm

Congrats northern guys looks like this is your storm, hopefully we all see something on 11th/12th. WWA doesn't include southern WC but thats okay, A day or two break is kinda needed here to clean up some more.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:09 pm

WPC has .10-.25" qpf for the entire day tomorrow for my area, so maybe we could get a few inches out of it.

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:17 pm

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Stormt11
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:30 pm

@aiannone wrote:Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Stormt11
Okay, and NWS doesnt feel 2-4 inches is a WWA? I thought a WWA was for any winter weather even icy rain. I will take a nice little 2-3. Just funny this is NWS prediction but the cutoff for WWA is north of 287.
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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Stormt11
Okay, and NWS doesnt feel 2-4 inches is a WWA? I thought a WWA was for any winter weather even icy rain.  I will take a nice little 2-3.  Just funny this is NWS prediction but the cutoff for WWA is north of 287.

NWS Upton WWA Criteria:

Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed warning criteria. In addition, a winter weather advisory will be issued for an all-snow event if the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed the warning criteria. The advisory criteria is 3 inches of snow and/or sleet expected in a 12 hour period, or a trace of ice accumulation. An advisory may still be warranted if lesser accumulations will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:37 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 Stormt11
Okay, and NWS doesnt feel 2-4 inches is a WWA? I thought a WWA was for any winter weather even icy rain.  I will take a nice little 2-3.  Just funny this is NWS prediction but the cutoff for WWA is north of 287.

NWS Upton WWA Criteria:

Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed warning criteria. In addition, a winter weather advisory will be issued for an all-snow event if the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed the warning criteria. The advisory criteria is 3 inches of snow and/or sleet expected in a 12 hour period, or a trace of ice accumulation.  An advisory may still be warranted if lesser accumulations will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.
By that map it appears to meet criteria.
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