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Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

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Post by frank 638 Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap GFS from tues to sunday 14th, shave off 3-4 as GFS still has some from today, so yeah a foot total and 14th looks to have potential for a lot more.  G word maybe?

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Gfs_as10
bring it on When was the last time we had back to back snow storms this reminds me of early 90s and of course the winter of 13-14 this is what I call winter so post to be

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:00 pm

Month is somewhat reminiscent of Feb 2010 which featured 3 major storms in 3 weeks.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:53 pm

18Z GFS is pretty aggressive for Tuesday as was the 12Z UKMET. Have to watch that one too as the baroclinic zone is ripe and any wave that forms on it will tend to enhance things.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:56 pm

This baroclinic zone setup for Thursday is very intriguing.  Look at the clash of temps at the mid-levels.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Gfs85011

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 5:31 pm

Yes it is coming in more juicy with 2-4.5" amount for CNJ on North. Watch the GFS be right this time!!

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Sn10_024h.us_ne.png.759f77662a7286ce57449a7ed7d42d92

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2021 5:33 pm

GFS Tuesday

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Gfs_asnow24_neus_7

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 A43c0f10


Check out that -NAO. Notice how our area is caught between the SE ridge and the polar jet. The PJ is sliding beneath the Polar Vortex, illustrated nicely at 250mb.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 E29b0a10

The battle zone in between is the gradient. Often times the best frontogenesis is found along the gradient as WAA clashes with CAA.

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:03 pm

GFS 0Z will it get this right?
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 817702756_sn10_024h.us_ne(12).png.5514f819ac34ecab55b66bebef4f9e30

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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:06 pm

@amugs wrote:GFS 0Z will it get this right?
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 817702756_sn10_024h.us_ne(12).png.5514f819ac34ecab55b66bebef4f9e30

Great pack freshener for us all before Thursday!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:25 pm

No sleep for the weary. GFS shows accumulating snows Tuesday and Thursday

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:31 pm

Insane pattern coming up
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:28 am

Temps tomorrow morning are in the teens while snow is falling across NNJ and SE NY. It’s going to be a very fast moving clipper with 15:1 ratios.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_6

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Gfs_asnow_neus_9

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:30 am

This mornings GFS very aggressive for the HV with tomorrows storm. I can't see that 6 inches as depicted materializing over my house but in this current pattern who knows.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Gfs_as22
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:31 am

The NAM is similar. Maybe there is a bump south today that brings NYC into seeing accumulating snow.

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_21

My call at the moment is 3-6” N&W of NYC and a narrower zone of 2-4” just SE of there across NE NJ and areas just north of NYC

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:25 am

HREF - a very good blended model that has ben very steady on our storms this winter

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Screenshot_20210208-011030_wX.jpg.b294f68ba42729a6d8b6406c6f60ceb5

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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:18 am

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Namcon11
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:30 am

@hyde345 wrote:Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Namcon11

Mother nature is doing her part in spreading the love this year

N&W missed out on snow yesterday, but they will get theirs tomorrow Smile

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:30 am

12Z NAM was south of LI with the LP but had rain for all of NY, NJ and SCT. Would be surprised with a low track on this path with deep snowpack and temps in the low 20's tonight.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:39 am

Regarding the local LI area, NYC, and perhaps the Ct coast. NAM def came in a bit juicier. But it also had a warm surge from the surface up to925 give or take. It took LI into the mid 40's.

This is going to be a good test. In my experience once there is a strong snowpack the Low level cold is much harder to scour out that models can handle along the boundary. My guess is N of the LIE or maybe even North of rte 25 will be different than south of. LP is very weak so we shall see.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:01 am

0Z HREF

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Image.png.fb6cf5a5265157b927a99acd6bc76eac

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:04 am

You need a stronger Southerly wind (like 10-15mph)to scour out the Low level Dense Cold Air at the surface so if we hit the 20* range tonight that will be hard in my experiences of tracking.
A light Southerly wind wont do it.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:16 am

According to the rgem the rich get richer tomorrow.

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:32 am

Both NAM and GFS hint at some possible icing problems midday Tuesday across Central NJ (south of I-78). Could have surface temps hanging tough at or just below freezing as some warmer air aloft changes the snow to rain in that zone. Just north of that I would imagine it will stay mostly or all snow. And just rain south of that zone where temps could nudge to the mid-30s. Obviously this is all track dependent at this point, but worth keeping an eye on since ice is no fun.
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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:42 am

12z GFS for tomorrow morning
Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 Sn10_a19
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:56 am

Seems to me 3"+ NW of the I95 maybe possible. I don't think NW of I95 is raining. It will be more dependent on how far south the moisture slides IMO.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:21 am

GFS is on board for the area - could this actually be righty this time? If so it gains some credibility back. What's the saying "snow begets snow"

Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 2 555AC181-30AE-4F7C-9830-D24EAE4A22DE.png.aed78d1d490831e7a57e30e8e626b100

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