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Thursday, 02/18: The Next One

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mmanisca
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jmanley32
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS are wet and improving each run
remember this is s cold air mass in place temps do not get above 25/26* if that* for NNJ so snow ratios will be better than 10:1 IMO more like 12:1 maybe 14:1 looking at the Chart Alex posted a week back

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 5 9747120E-EBE8-49C1-95D3-26F33410854B.png.d55f4d11f744bc29aeff24ae674ac6ef
What do you think about north of NYC for rations? Not IMBY don't worry general area in NY that might see higher ratios I am asking. Its freaking cold out, we went out for a walk and the cold and wind blew in out of nowhere, was that part of the incoming cold for this storm? It was quick and the wind was fierce.  I am fine with 10:1 but just curious if you think its NNJ and across horizontally.

The biggest bust potential is early mixing. Seen it too many times over the years. Models sometimes miss that warm tongue. If you can avoid mixing on this one until 90% of the QPF is exhausted you'll do very well.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:31 pm

Heehaw is right about those sneaky warm layers. Look at 2/1 as an example. I was in what would have been one of the Jackpot zones with 15" on the ground and snowing hard, then out of nowhere a band of sleet set up over my area. I had two to three hours of heavy sleet that probably cost me 3-6" of additional snow. And I'm well north and west of I-95.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:40 pm

billg315 wrote:Heehaw is right about those sneaky warm layers. Look at 2/1 as an example. I was in what would have been one of the Jackpot zones with 15" on the ground and snowing hard, then out of nowhere a band of sleet set up over my area. I had two to three hours of heavy sleet that probably cost me 3-6" of additional snow. And I'm well north and west of I-95.
true, lets hope that doesnt happen.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:10 pm

Look at skew T for this info.

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:15 pm

18z Euro is not as robust on qpf as other models and thus lower snow totals. Where the storm is a little more moist there is more mixing with freezing rain, so not as big totals there. Shows generally a 4-6" snowstorm area-wide (except a sharp cutoff 35-40 miles north of NYC) with an additional .25-.40" of frz in SNJ.
I think it may be underestimating the amount of moisture that will be involved in some of the heavier banding across CNJ/NNJ with this. NAM and GFS are picking this up better.
All models seem in agreement there will be a sleet/frz component to this south of I-195, but very little pure rain except maybe Cape May and Atlantic coastal areas.
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:20 pm

Euro snow map 18z run. See above post for my thoughts:
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 5 18z_eu10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:44 pm

News 12 just put the entire area in 6-12.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:59 pm

Makes sense though. The GFS pretty much threw 6-12” into every backyard from N to S and E to W. Very rare I think if the whole board scores 6”+ with a high of ‘only’ 12”.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:35 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Makes sense though. The GFS pretty much threw 6-12” into every backyard from N to S and E to W. Very rare I think if the whole board scores 6”+ with a high of  ‘only’ 12”.
Yeah both it and the NAM, the Euro i think is as stated is not catching the higher rates, i at least hope its wrong in the maps.
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