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Thursday, 02/18: The Next One

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:40 pm

@billg315 wrote:Heehaw is right about those sneaky warm layers. Look at 2/1 as an example. I was in what would have been one of the Jackpot zones with 15" on the ground and snowing hard, then out of nowhere a band of sleet set up over my area. I had two to three hours of heavy sleet that probably cost me 3-6" of additional snow. And I'm well north and west of I-95.
true, lets hope that doesnt happen.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:10 pm

Look at skew T for this info.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:15 pm

18z Euro is not as robust on qpf as other models and thus lower snow totals. Where the storm is a little more moist there is more mixing with freezing rain, so not as big totals there. Shows generally a 4-6" snowstorm area-wide (except a sharp cutoff 35-40 miles north of NYC) with an additional .25-.40" of frz in SNJ.
I think it may be underestimating the amount of moisture that will be involved in some of the heavier banding across CNJ/NNJ with this. NAM and GFS are picking this up better.
All models seem in agreement there will be a sleet/frz component to this south of I-195, but very little pure rain except maybe Cape May and Atlantic coastal areas.
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:20 pm

Euro snow map 18z run. See above post for my thoughts:
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 5 18z_eu10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:44 pm

News 12 just put the entire area in 6-12.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:59 pm

Makes sense though. The GFS pretty much threw 6-12” into every backyard from N to S and E to W. Very rare I think if the whole board scores 6”+ with a high of ‘only’ 12”.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:35 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Makes sense though. The GFS pretty much threw 6-12” into every backyard from N to S and E to W. Very rare I think if the whole board scores 6”+ with a high of  ‘only’ 12”.
Yeah both it and the NAM, the Euro i think is as stated is not catching the higher rates, i at least hope its wrong in the maps.
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