Re: Thursday, 02/18: The Next One

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:03 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Hey Jman, I live about 5 miles west of the Ocean, 2 miles west of the bay and about 1 mile south of the Toms River.

We're starting to really lock in 6"+ for that front end thump and I am ecstatic about that.

Ideally, could use another 25-50 mile SE shift and then just ride it out!

So, I'm not going to spend the next 36 hours relentlessly posting about my own particular chances for a big snow like a usually do.

Ok, that's not true at all, I just can't help myself. Rather, I'll just apologize in advance for all my impending mishegas!!! Good luck to everyone, Rooting for a SE tick in the track along with a NW expansion of the precip!!!

LOL you get me my man. We the same in some ways and I love how you have supported my weeniness when some haven't. Anyways even a push S for you I will still be happy shoot verbatim I see almost a foot I will gladly give you a push and we in my area will still sit well.

by **phil155** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:06 pm

sitting essentially under that 10.7

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:13 pm

phil155 wrote:sitting essentially under that 10.7

You've had some month then, huh! You might hit 4 feet yet on Thursday, no? I can't even imagine...

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:21 pm

NAM is showing intense frontogenesis. If anyone is going to approach 1' on this they will need to be under the banding.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Fronto10

by **aiannone** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:23 pm

by **frank 638** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:26 pm

Lee has his first snowman so far a almost the whole areas 5 to 10 and 2 to 5 south Jersey

by **billg315** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:55 pm

18z GFS Snow Map:

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 18z_gf11

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:57 pm

aiannone wrote:

Nice good 1st call, and would be happy with that. I think it has the potential to go up a bit like 8-12 potentially in the banding areas. Which looks to set up over NNJ, LI LHV and southern CT if that model holds.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:02 pm

billg315 wrote:18z GFS Snow Map:

This feels like a 6-10" with localized 1' amounts who ever gets under the best banding.

by **amugs** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:03 pm

That frontogenesis banding is what he NAM has been picking up with ALL of our winter storms and doing an excellent job. Super Bowl Storm it nailed this. Looking at 2-3" per hour rates under those.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:10 pm

All the ingredients are in place here for a good snowstorm. We have a 50/50 Low, we have High Pressure block to our North, Cold air in place (temps tomorrow don't get above freezing most places and dewpoints at daybreak Thursday in the teens everywhere), and a strong jet from sw to ne just to our west. Even if this does change to sleet or frz rain (and surface temps in most of the area away from the coast never go above freezing) we'll get plenty of snow before we get to that point.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:11 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:18z GFS Snow Map:

This feels like a 6-10" with localized 1' amounts who ever gets under the best banding.

Yep, agree.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:14 pm

I will start watching the NAM very closely starting 0Z tonight and especially tomorrow. It sniffs out sneaky warm layers in the soundings as good as anything within 24-36 of an event. The sneaky warm layer is the caveat when you have intense WAA.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:17 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I will start watching the NAM very closely starting 0Z tonight and especially tomorrow. It sniffs out sneaky warm layers in the soundings as good as anything within 24-36 of an event. The sneaky warm layer is the caveat when you have intense WAA.

NAM did a good job with that in the 2/1 storm. I'll be keeping an eye on that too. NAM definitely shows some warm air aloft over southern and central NJ, but not before that snow has done some damage. Will definitely be in better range tomorrow morning.

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:36 pm

Don’t like the fact that Mt Holly ‘refuses’ to raise a wsa for Ocean County.
I hope they aren’t trying to tell me something.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 C6655310

by **amugs** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:44 pm

Good call - Balls to the Wall
Mecs peeps is evolving.
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 EuYdM8lWgAo87YL?format=png&name=900x900

by **amugs** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:49 pm

Look at this moisture feed peeps - It goes to the equator for Gods sake - you dont think 1" plus QPF is in this bad boy - that is ONE HELL OF A MOISTURE FEED AND JUICY LIKE A FUDRUCKERS BURGER!! This is reminiscent of the SB storm and Feb 1st for the moisture feed

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pwata_atl_10.png.1bb236df9e3a8fe5953ca87bd52b0d2c

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pwata_atl_10.png.1bb236df9e3a8fe5953ca87bd52b0d2c

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:53 pm

amugs wrote:Good call - Balls to the Wall
Mecs peeps is evolving.

F yeah!!!! I have been in the jackpot along with many others all this year, its amazing. After the last two years we deserve it!! This is pretty ballsy call with the + on there. Is this a trustable source?

by **amugs** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:53 pm

GEFS are wet and improving each run
remember this is s cold air mass in place temps do not get above 25/26* if that* for NNJ so snow ratios will be better than 10:1 IMO more like 12:1 maybe 14:1 looking at the Chart Alex posted a week back

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 9747120E-EBE8-49C1-95D3-26F33410854B.png.d55f4d11f744bc29aeff24ae674ac6ef

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 9747120E-EBE8-49C1-95D3-26F33410854B.png.d55f4d11f744bc29aeff24ae674ac6ef

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:57 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS are wet and improving each run
remember this is s cold air mass in place temps do not get above 25/26* if that* for NNJ so snow ratios will be better than 10:1 IMO more like 12:1 maybe 14:1 looking at the Chart Alex posted a week back

What do you think about north of NYC for rations? Not IMBY don't worry general area in NY that might see higher ratios I am asking. Its freaking cold out, we went out for a walk and the cold and wind blew in out of nowhere, was that part of the incoming cold for this storm? It was quick and the wind was fierce. I am fine with 10:1 but just curious if you think its NNJ and across horizontally.

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:02 pm

Is this now turning into another 2 day affair, where there will be backend snow into Friday? Well, backend for those who change over. I’m seeing lots of signs pointing to that. As of now, less than inch. But that’s how it starts...

by **aiannone** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:03 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS are wet and improving each run
remember this is s cold air mass in place temps do not get above 25/26* if that* for NNJ so snow ratios will be better than 10:1 IMO more like 12:1 maybe 14:1 looking at the Chart Alex posted a week back

Temps at height of precip via 18z NAM, 18z GFS and 18z EURO

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Sfct_u12

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Sfct_u13

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Sfct_u14

Ratio Chart:

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One - Page 4 Sngh5q10

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:09 pm

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS are wet and improving each run
remember this is s cold air mass in place temps do not get above 25/26* if that* for NNJ so snow ratios will be better than 10:1 IMO more like 12:1 maybe 14:1 looking at the Chart Alex posted a week back

Temps at height of precip via 18z NAM, 18z GFS and 18z EURO

Ratio Chart:

cool yeah I seen this b4 not as clean a chart though. Wow so my temps stay in the 2nd range so up to 15 inches IF the area stays in 1.0 qpf, but looks like locally more, could this be a G? Frank is leaving HA, he isnt chiming in cuz he is crying.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:16 pm

In which direction is the GFS trending? With all that higher qpf to the South of NYC is that rain then because the snow maps do not show 20 inches of snow.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:21 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Don’t like the fact that Mt Holly ‘refuses’ to raise a wsa for Ocean County.
I hope they aren’t trying to tell me something.

The XFactor is the IP (sleet). The models are rarely going to cross section the mid-levels entirely accurate and sniff out the warm tongues. Even the NAM misses many of them. The further NW of the I-95 the less your chance of this mixing earlier than progged. Mt Holly definitely doesn't have the confidence in that right now, but that may change tomorrow. Dual-Pol radar will be in heavy use come Thursday around here, I'm sure of it and we will all be wondering when it's our turn. Sad

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS are wet and improving each run
remember this is s cold air mass in place temps do not get above 25/26* if that* for NNJ so snow ratios will be better than 10:1 IMO more like 12:1 maybe 14:1 looking at the Chart Alex posted a week back

What do you think about north of NYC for rations? Not IMBY don't worry general area in NY that might see higher ratios I am asking. Its freaking cold out, we went out for a walk and the cold and wind blew in out of nowhere, was that part of the incoming cold for this storm? It was quick and the wind was fierce. I am fine with 10:1 but just curious if you think its NNJ and across horizontally.

The biggest bust potential is early mixing. Seen it too many times over the years. Models sometimes miss that warm tongue. If you can avoid mixing on this one until 90% of the QPF is exhausted you'll do very well.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:31 pm

Heehaw is right about those sneaky warm layers. Look at 2/1 as an example. I was in what would have been one of the Jackpot zones with 15" on the ground and snowing hard, then out of nowhere a band of sleet set up over my area. I had two to three hours of heavy sleet that probably cost me 3-6" of additional snow. And I'm well north and west of I-95.

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