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Thursday, 02/18: The Next One

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:30 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:Aside from loving the actual substance of the discussion, I LOVE the subtle yet profound changes to the language in your scroll and thread title Frank!  If I knew Italian, I'd hit you up with a nice little phrase here to show my appreciation. lol


Haha

I'm still thinking NYC and south sees a front-end thump before a changeover, but now I'm thinking N&W may stay all frozen...

so there will be a sharp cutoff at NYC or are you talking far nw of NYC. Still like to wake to nice scroll but is there any chance us coastal areas stay snow? When you say i95 for nj it goes north to south but when ur talking NY 95 goes super close to NYC in face it crosses in the Bronx I believe. So it's kinda confusing when you say NW of i95 in terms of how far.

A potential/likely/definite change over to mix/sleet/rain is ALWAYS in thinking for coastal areas...lol. That front end thump is set up nicely for mby at the moment. I'm afraid hoping for changes would end up putting me in a worse position. Shocked JMan, I think coast means Jersey coast and maybe a bit of LI for the moment. You might be right in that battle zone for a change over...still not a bad position for now. Don't want to settle into a prime spot too early as things wobble and tick and trend....

SNJ once again seems to be getting the 'black spot' as far as all snow. We get the black spot just about every time and usually plays out that way 100%. BUT...every now and then we survive unscathed. It takes mad Peter-Pan like faith and great luck to get it done though. But this set up might be conducive to a miracle. The 12z runs are likely to crush my coastie dreams with a great vengeance...we'll see...

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:36 am

12z NAM snow before a dry slot with light sleet and then some rain/sleet mix SE of NYC
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Sn10_a22
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:43 am

This situation is still evolving. There will be an initial nice dump of snow from WAA. Depending on how deep that WAA warms the mid-layers there can be additional snow that comes from the development of the new storm. Para GFS and NAM is now starting to show that. If that new storm cranks quickly then this will be very interesting.

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:50 am

12Z GFS any changeover happens after most of the precip is out. Likely light drizzle/sleet
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Sn10_a23
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Post by mmanisca Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:53 am

@aiannone wrote:12Z GFS any changeover happens after most of the precip is out. Likely light drizzle/sleet
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Sn10_a23
The trend certainly has been favorable to us here on Long Island....
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:02 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:Aside from loving the actual substance of the discussion, I LOVE the subtle yet profound changes to the language in your scroll and thread title Frank!  If I knew Italian, I'd hit you up with a nice little phrase here to show my appreciation. lol


Haha

I'm still thinking NYC and south sees a front-end thump before a changeover, but now I'm thinking N&W may stay all frozen...

so there will be a sharp cutoff at NYC or are you talking far nw of NYC. Still like to wake to nice scroll but is there any chance us coastal areas stay snow? When you say i95 for nj it goes north to south but when ur talking NY 95 goes super close to NYC in face it crosses in the Bronx I believe. So it's kinda confusing when you say NW of i95 in terms of how far.

A potential/likely/definite change over to mix/sleet/rain is ALWAYS in thinking for coastal areas...lol. That front end thump is set up nicely for mby at the moment. I'm afraid hoping for changes would end up putting me in a worse position. Shocked  JMan, I think coast means Jersey coast and maybe a bit of LI for the moment. You might be right in that battle zone for a change over...still not a bad position for now. Don't want to settle into a prime spot too early as things wobble and tick and trend....

SNJ once again seems to be getting the 'black spot' as far as all snow. We get the black spot just about every time and usually plays out that way 100%. BUT...every now and then we survive unscathed. It takes mad Peter-Pan like faith and great luck to get it done though. But this set up might be conducive to a miracle. The 12z runs are likely to crush my coastie dreams with a great vengeance...we'll see...
not sure how far south you are but good snows into central southern nj. In fact on gfs that area jackpots with 8 to 10 verbatim. Anything 6 plus is good to me and that looks very possible with this one.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:15 am

This is probably going to be a very nice event for most of the forum members. I think the NAM will come around with the thermal profiles by 0Z tonight for areas SE of I-95. No guarantees in the weather business obviously as it'll always find ways to humble us.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:17 am

The NAM is aggressive on this one isn't it? lol. Definitely has been a colder trend with this storm.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:37 am

NAM with another strong jet dynamics overhead in a classic set up NNE direction. These are set ups with moderate snowstorms and will allow expansion and the banding to be heavy - reminiscent of Super Bowl storm but longer duration.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_46

Frongensis overhead is intense between 11AM -3PM
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_43

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:55 am

Expect watches to go up at the 4pm update. Great way to finish off an ugly day. WE WILL REBUILD
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:09 pm

Wow look at this jet streak, Jesus goes back to the Gulf. Be sure to see an increase in precipitation with this and its going to help us early on with this storms path.
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_40

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:11 pm

@amugs wrote:Wow look at this jet streak, Jesus goes back to the Gulf. Be sure to see an increase in precipitation with this and its going to help us early on with this storms path.
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_40

Right. I think the Euro/CMC are not pushing the frontogenesis WAA far enough north. I think they'll correct shortly.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:12 pm

@amugs wrote:NAM with another strong jet dynamics overhead in a classic set up NNE direction. These are set ups with moderate snowstorms and will allow expansion and the banding to be heavy - reminiscent of Super Bowl storm but longer duration.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_46

Frongensis overhead is intense between 11AM -3PM
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_43
nice!! Hope that area of frontogenesis is correct puts me and many of us in some great rates.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:22 pm

Important factor as to why Thursdays threat has legitimacy is the transient ridge popping up in the west.  

Look at todays GFS at initiation.  Notice the upper air pattern.  There is no 50/50 Low and nothing doing out west.  The energy that was the system from today has noothing to prevent it from raising heights out front leading to a track to the west and warm air source region originating from the deep south and the cold pool is locked up in the central CONUS (blue circle).    

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Gfs-de27


On the other hand look at the set up as Thursdays system is approaching our area.   We have a ridge out west with a positive tilted axis.  If you look below NE of the area in the circle labeled (1) this is a departing ULL in the general gegion of 50/50 but not a true 50/50 low.  Bu the departing energy (which is low pressure) leads to HP in its wake over our area.  The key difference with Thursdays set up and todays set up is that ridge out west.  Its amplitude, orientation, and timing is such that it is reinforcing the HP to our north with a cold air source rather than allowing the approaching system to raise heights too much out ahead and the SE ridhe HP from pushing too far north.  

Simply stated that small transient ridging to the west is providing the necessary resistance/push back to the SE ridge from winning out like it did today.  Its the key component as to why we all may see decent snow.  


Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Gfs-de28

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:26 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:NAM with another strong jet dynamics overhead in a classic set up NNE direction. These are set ups with moderate snowstorms and will allow expansion and the banding to be heavy - reminiscent of Super Bowl storm but longer duration.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_46

Frongensis overhead is intense between 11AM -3PM
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_43
nice!! Hope that area of frontogenesis is correct puts me and many of us in some great rates.

But then you're gonna have to shovel a lot!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:30 pm

@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:NAM with another strong jet dynamics overhead in a classic set up NNE direction. These are set ups with moderate snowstorms and will allow expansion and the banding to be heavy - reminiscent of Super Bowl storm but longer duration.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_46

Frongensis overhead is intense between 11AM -3PM
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_43
nice!! Hope that area of frontogenesis is correct puts me and many of us in some great rates.

But then you're gonna have to shovel a lot!  
You can't stop can ya : ) I got over it, its not the shoveling its the a holes parking on the street not shoveling a proper spot so they end up taking 2-3 spots up and we already have little parking as it is. If I had a drive way I actually quite like shoveling...once. But when I have shovel a spot everytime I got out it gets annoying. Get it? I however look at it as good exercise now, different angles prove positive thoughts sometimes. Hey be happy I am not complaining about anything!! You brought it up!!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:32 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Important factor as to why Thursdays threat has legitimacy is the transient ridge popping up in the west.  

Look at todays GFS at initiation.  Notice the upper air pattern.  There is no 50/50 Low and nothing doing out west.  The energy that was the system from today has noothing to prevent it from raising heights out front leading to a track to the west and warm air source region originating from the deep south and the cold pool is locked up in the central CONUS (blue circle).    

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Gfs-de27


On the other hand look at the set up as Thursdays system is approaching our area.   We have a ridge out west with a positive tilted axis.  If you look below NE of the area in the circle labeled (1) this is a departing ULL in the general gegion of 50/50 but not a true 50/50 low.  Bu the departing energy (which is low pressure) leads to HP in its wake over our area.  The key difference with Thursdays set up and todays set up is that ridge out west.  Its amplitude, orientation, and timing is such that it is reinforcing the HP to our north with a cold air source rather than allowing the approaching system to raise heights too much out ahead and the SE ridhe HP from pushing too far north.  

Simply stated that small transient ridging to the west is providing the necessary resistance/push back to the SE ridge from winning out like it did today.  Its the key component as to why we all may see decent snow.  


Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Gfs-de28

I absolutely agree that the ridge out west and its tilt will give this a better trajectory of approach, but the 500 mb trough is too far west and without the ULL flattening heights this would prob cut and would quickly flip to IP and then possibly rain. I see the ULL as the most important facet to this. But of course it's an opinion.

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:NAM with another strong jet dynamics overhead in a classic set up NNE direction. These are set ups with moderate snowstorms and will allow expansion and the banding to be heavy - reminiscent of Super Bowl storm but longer duration.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_46

Frongensis overhead is intense between 11AM -3PM
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_43
nice!! Hope that area of frontogenesis is correct puts me and many of us in some great rates.

But then you're gonna have to shovel a lot!  
You can't stop can ya : ) I got over it, its not the shoveling its the a holes parking on the street not shoveling a proper spot so they end up taking 2-3 spots up and we already have little parking as it is. If I had a drive way I actually quite like shoveling...once. But when I have shovel a spot everytime I got out it gets annoying. Get it? I however look at it as good exercise now, different angles prove positive thoughts sometimes. Hey be happy I am not complaining about anything!!  You brought it up!!

LoL! Was just having some fun with ya. Let's get back to talking weather. Are there gonna be any damaging, destructive winds with this storm? LMAO!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:38 pm

@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:NAM with another strong jet dynamics overhead in a classic set up NNE direction. These are set ups with moderate snowstorms and will allow expansion and the banding to be heavy - reminiscent of Super Bowl storm but longer duration.

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_uv250_us_46

Frongensis overhead is intense between 11AM -3PM
Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_43
nice!! Hope that area of frontogenesis is correct puts me and many of us in some great rates.

But then you're gonna have to shovel a lot!  
You can't stop can ya : ) I got over it, its not the shoveling its the a holes parking on the street not shoveling a proper spot so they end up taking 2-3 spots up and we already have little parking as it is. If I had a drive way I actually quite like shoveling...once. But when I have shovel a spot everytime I got out it gets annoying. Get it? I however look at it as good exercise now, different angles prove positive thoughts sometimes. Hey be happy I am not complaining about anything!!  You brought it up!!

LoL!  Was just having some fun with ya.  Let's get back to talking weather. Are there gonna be any damaging, destructive winds with this storm?  LMAO!!
Nope!!
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:40 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Important factor as to why Thursdays threat has legitimacy is the transient ridge popping up in the west.  

Look at todays GFS at initiation.  Notice the upper air pattern.  There is no 50/50 Low and nothing doing out west.  The energy that was the system from today has noothing to prevent it from raising heights out front leading to a track to the west and warm air source region originating from the deep south and the cold pool is locked up in the central CONUS (blue circle).    

Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Gfs-de27


On the other hand look at the set up as Thursdays system is approaching our area.   We have a ridge out west with a positive tilted axis.  If you look below NE of the area in the circle labeled (1) this is a departing ULL in the general gegion of 50/50 but not a true 50/50 low.  Bu the departing energy (which is low pressure) leads to HP in its wake over our area.  The key difference with Thursdays set up and todays set up is that ridge out west.  Its amplitude, orientation, and timing is such that it is reinforcing the HP to our north with a cold air source rather than allowing the approaching system to raise heights too much out ahead and the SE ridhe HP from pushing too far north.  

Simply stated that small transient ridging to the west is providing the necessary resistance/push back to the SE ridge from winning out like it did today.  Its the key component as to why we all may see decent snow.  


Thursday, 02/18: The Next One  - Page 2 Gfs-de28

I absolutely agree that the ridge out west and its tilt will give this a better trajectory of approach, but the 500 mb trough is too far west and without the ULL flattening heights this would prob cut and would quickly flip to IP and then possibly rain.  I see the ULL as the most important facet to this.  But of course it's an opinion.

Honestly I think you need both.  You need the ULL and its back side, but you also need the reinforcing from the west.  Without the reinforcments from the west the energy from the south strengthens and is able to send that ULL on a diff trajectoryas well as drive the HP out too quickly.  BUT without the departing ULL to the NE pressing down some on its back side the ridging to the west might allow phasing to occur to quickly.  So again I think both are key.  One without the other with the background state we are in (La Nina/ MJO phase 7) really hurts our chances; certainly the coastal plain.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:05 pm

12z Euro rolling. Nice ridge building out west at hour 42 though looks like the heights on the east coast raised just a bit, so far.
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:07 pm

All that high pressure to the northwest, north and northeast sure doesn't leave this thing much room to go north does it?
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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:08 pm

little weaker than 0z but colder
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:14 pm

I think Euro is underdoing the WAA frontogenesis a bit. Mesos will be best at determining how far north it gets. This will be a longer duration event because you have the initial WAA and then precip from the developing storm. If that coastal cranks a bit that can surprise with higher amounts.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:14 pm

Energy slides a little south on this Euro run. Puts heaviest snow right across central and southern NJ as the secondary tries to develop off the VA coast. I wonder if this is legit because of the strong high pressure planted to the north, or if this will simply waffle back with the typical NW trend in the final 24 hours as we've been seeing all winter.
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