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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed 17 Feb - 23:52

00z summary:

GFS- mostly 5-7", a few 4-5" spots and a few 6-10" jackpots (LHV).

CMC- mostly 4-6", So. NJ jackpot 6-9" thru all of coastal Ocean Co. Some 2" spots.

Icon- We all get 2-3"

Nam 12K- So NJ Spectacular- borderline GZ south of 95, 3-4" above it.  Razz  Razz  Razz  Razz

Nam 3K- So NJ Slight Edge- Same as above, but mostly 6" with some 8" south of 95, a layer of 4-6" right along 95 and LI and then 3-5 NEPA on thru NNJ and into LHV. Some spots with 2".

HRRR- 4-6" North of SENJsnowman and 1-3" from SENJ on down. 6-9" jackpot zones NNJ and LHV.

RGEM- generally 4-6", 6-8" jackpot zones in nw NJ and in eastern Suffolk County.

So, my analysis from that summary is that we are all in the game for anywhere from 2-8".

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 18 Feb - 0:26

I just compared all the models too, they are still all over the place jeeze. NAM is all south Jersey special with 2 inches here (in 24 hrs? cool, ill be able to show you guys each flake as they fall and i put them in my freezer. lol, to HRRR who is more uniform from central jersey to LHV. And anywhere in between, yeah 2-8 sounds right.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 18 Feb - 0:38

Wow 2am sluurrppp, there goes all the precip, it just dies out completely. An hour b4 it shows a large area of precip encompassing the area it does now on radar. If this is true and somehow it all dries up then i think we might all be in for a let down, lets just hope its a bad radar frame but it shows it progrssively drying up.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Downlo10

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu 18 Feb - 5:37

Come to SENJ please...right into my back yard!

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 D467ee10

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu 18 Feb - 6:12

It started to snow lightly. Temp 27*.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu 18 Feb - 6:17

6z Nam came north.
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Post by billg315 Thu 18 Feb - 6:20

Beware much of those lead bands are virga. I was under a heavy radar band from 5-6am with no snow. Not unexpected with this cold dry air (I referenced this possibility in my last post last night about the radar). 25* here with a dewpoint of 15*. Just need to saturate the column a bit more for the virga to reach the ground. Should happen soon which is consistent with yesterday’s modeling showing no snow until around daybreak.
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Post by jaydoy Thu 18 Feb - 6:22

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 F9873910

Coming down nice in Long Branch

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Post by billg315 Thu 18 Feb - 6:28

As an aside, we do a lot of model trashing here (often with justification) but I’m still amazed big picture how accurate weather models are in the modern era when you consider where technology was 40-45 years ago. Two examples: the models yesterday both showed that twin forks lead edge of snow streaking ahead of the main precip shield into NNJ and SNJ this morning. That is such a specific feature for a computer model to pick up 24 hours in advance if you think about it. The second is, how many times do models show it not snowing until X a.m. but the radar looks better earlier . . . Only to fall apart and not start snowing until X a.m. Happens a lot I think.
Again, this isn’t to praise the overall accuracy of models, rather to point out scientifically/technologically how impressive what we have is from a human progress standpoint as opposed to even what we had earlier in my own lifetime.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu 18 Feb - 6:32

The snow has commenced here in EPA.  06Z NAM was very impressive for the areas between I-80 on south.  There's going to be another good moisture fetch tomorrow as a wave rounds the bend of the 500 mb trough.  That wave tomorrow can surprise especially for LI. Any slight enhancement to it will matter.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 06znam11

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Post by heehaw453 Thu 18 Feb - 6:36

The air is warmer at 10k feet now than it is at 5k feet ASL.  Have to watch that for sleet transitions. This bend in the isotherm tells me Philly will sleet.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 700mb10

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Post by billg315 Thu 18 Feb - 6:46

25* and Light Snow has commenced. Ground frozen so already a coating.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu 18 Feb - 6:55

Ripping here northern ocean county streets covered
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Post by algae888 Thu 18 Feb - 6:56

Snow has  started here in the bronx
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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Thu 18 Feb - 6:57

Welp its already mostly sleet down here, ugh
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu 18 Feb - 7:03

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by dkodgis Thu 18 Feb - 7:09

Not quite half an inch at 7 am but not snowing right now. 20 degrees. I am thinking this storm is slower moving than we thought. Now it is going to be longer of a storm but not a lot of snow-just spread out over time. Barely any wind right now if any. In goes another log into the stove and it's good morning all.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu 18 Feb - 7:09

Wow the real story with all of this is the coastal storm tonight into tomorrow. If you read back on my first post that I made, I showed how another piece of vorticity swings through late Thursday and it tries to phase with the energy offshore from today’s snow. It looks like models came around to that idea, and we are now looking at moderate snow today, and lull, then it resuming again around 7am Friday. Some areas across PA and SNY may actually never get into a lull but see continuous light bursts of snow as the energy starts swinging through.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu 18 Feb - 7:13

Parts of SNJ already have 4-5 inches of snow

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu 18 Feb - 7:22

Current R/S line

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu 18 Feb - 7:25

Heavy sleet in Bayville. Interesting...

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Post by aiannone Thu 18 Feb - 7:25

Light snow started here
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Post by Vinnydula Thu 18 Feb - 7:26

Light snow has started. 24 degrees
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Post by mmanisca Thu 18 Feb - 7:30

aiannone wrote:Light snow started here
Yup Light Snow in Deer Park
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Post by billg315 Thu 18 Feb - 7:35

23* with Light to Moderate Snow.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu 18 Feb - 7:35

21.2/19.5 Moderate snow

I'm hearing part of Lower Bucks County PA approaching 5". I'm probably close to 1", bur rates are improving.

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Post by gigs68 Thu 18 Feb - 7:39

Light Snow in Commack-Roads coated- 27 degrees
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