Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
+44
bloc1357
Dunnzoo
hurrysundown23
larryrock72
phil155
dsvinos
docstox12
weatherwatchermom
SNOW MAN
kalleg
Snow88
Radz
Joe Snow
oldtimer
gigs68
mmanisca
Vinnydula
SkiSeadooJoe
algae888
jaydoy
dkodgis
Zhukov1945
skinsfan1177
2004blackwrx
lglickman1
Artingerb
Grselig
GreyBeard
moleson
nutleyblizzard
essexcountypete
billg315
sroc4
amugs
Fededle22
CPcantmeasuresnow
Irish
heehaw453
SENJsnowman
aiannone
DAYBLAZER
jmanley32
frank 638
Frank_Wx
48 posters
Page 6 of 18
Page 6 of 18 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 12 ... 18
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
00z summary:
GFS- mostly 5-7", a few 4-5" spots and a few 6-10" jackpots (LHV).
CMC- mostly 4-6", So. NJ jackpot 6-9" thru all of coastal Ocean Co. Some 2" spots.
Icon- We all get 2-3"
Nam 12K- So NJ Spectacular- borderline GZ south of 95, 3-4" above it.
Nam 3K- So NJ Slight Edge- Same as above, but mostly 6" with some 8" south of 95, a layer of 4-6" right along 95 and LI and then 3-5 NEPA on thru NNJ and into LHV. Some spots with 2".
HRRR- 4-6" North of SENJsnowman and 1-3" from SENJ on down. 6-9" jackpot zones NNJ and LHV.
RGEM- generally 4-6", 6-8" jackpot zones in nw NJ and in eastern Suffolk County.
So, my analysis from that summary is that we are all in the game for anywhere from 2-8".
GFS- mostly 5-7", a few 4-5" spots and a few 6-10" jackpots (LHV).
CMC- mostly 4-6", So. NJ jackpot 6-9" thru all of coastal Ocean Co. Some 2" spots.
Icon- We all get 2-3"
Nam 12K- So NJ Spectacular- borderline GZ south of 95, 3-4" above it.
Nam 3K- So NJ Slight Edge- Same as above, but mostly 6" with some 8" south of 95, a layer of 4-6" right along 95 and LI and then 3-5 NEPA on thru NNJ and into LHV. Some spots with 2".
HRRR- 4-6" North of SENJsnowman and 1-3" from SENJ on down. 6-9" jackpot zones NNJ and LHV.
RGEM- generally 4-6", 6-8" jackpot zones in nw NJ and in eastern Suffolk County.
So, my analysis from that summary is that we are all in the game for anywhere from 2-8".
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1207
Join date : 2017-01-06
CPcantmeasuresnow and jmanley32 like this post
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
I just compared all the models too, they are still all over the place jeeze. NAM is all south Jersey special with 2 inches here (in 24 hrs? cool, ill be able to show you guys each flake as they fall and i put them in my freezer. lol, to HRRR who is more uniform from central jersey to LHV. And anywhere in between, yeah 2-8 sounds right.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20656
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Wow 2am sluurrppp, there goes all the precip, it just dies out completely. An hour b4 it shows a large area of precip encompassing the area it does now on radar. If this is true and somehow it all dries up then i think we might all be in for a let down, lets just hope its a bad radar frame but it shows it progrssively drying up.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20656
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1207
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
It started to snow lightly. Temp 27*.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
6z Nam came north.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Beware much of those lead bands are virga. I was under a heavy radar band from 5-6am with no snow. Not unexpected with this cold dry air (I referenced this possibility in my last post last night about the radar). 25* here with a dewpoint of 15*. Just need to saturate the column a bit more for the virga to reach the ground. Should happen soon which is consistent with yesterday’s modeling showing no snow until around daybreak.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4586
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
jaydoy- Posts : 23
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2019-01-23
mmillerc23 and weatherwatchermom like this post
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
As an aside, we do a lot of model trashing here (often with justification) but I’m still amazed big picture how accurate weather models are in the modern era when you consider where technology was 40-45 years ago. Two examples: the models yesterday both showed that twin forks lead edge of snow streaking ahead of the main precip shield into NNJ and SNJ this morning. That is such a specific feature for a computer model to pick up 24 hours in advance if you think about it. The second is, how many times do models show it not snowing until X a.m. but the radar looks better earlier . . . Only to fall apart and not start snowing until X a.m. Happens a lot I think.
Again, this isn’t to praise the overall accuracy of models, rather to point out scientifically/technologically how impressive what we have is from a human progress standpoint as opposed to even what we had earlier in my own lifetime.
Again, this isn’t to praise the overall accuracy of models, rather to point out scientifically/technologically how impressive what we have is from a human progress standpoint as opposed to even what we had earlier in my own lifetime.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4586
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4001
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4001
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
25* and Light Snow has commenced. Ground frozen so already a coating.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4586
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Ripping here northern ocean county streets covered
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Snow has started here in the bronx
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 62
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Welp its already mostly sleet down here, ugh
SkiSeadooJoe- Posts : 96
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-01-08
Age : 52
Location : Toms River, NJ
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Not quite half an inch at 7 am but not snowing right now. 20 degrees. I am thinking this storm is slower moving than we thought. Now it is going to be longer of a storm but not a lot of snow-just spread out over time. Barely any wind right now if any. In goes another log into the stove and it's good morning all.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2722
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Wow the real story with all of this is the coastal storm tonight into tomorrow. If you read back on my first post that I made, I showed how another piece of vorticity swings through late Thursday and it tries to phase with the energy offshore from today’s snow. It looks like models came around to that idea, and we are now looking at moderate snow today, and lull, then it resuming again around 7am Friday. Some areas across PA and SNY may actually never get into a lull but see continuous light bursts of snow as the energy starts swinging through.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Parts of SNJ already have 4-5 inches of snow
Madonna Mia
Madonna Mia
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Heavy sleet in Bayville. Interesting...
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1207
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Light snow started here
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4831
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Light snow has started. 24 degrees
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 778
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Yup Light Snow in Deer Parkaiannone wrote:Light snow started here
mmanisca- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 300
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 66
Location : Deer Park, Long Island
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
23* with Light to Moderate Snow.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4586
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
21.2/19.5 Moderate snow
I'm hearing part of Lower Bucks County PA approaching 5". I'm probably close to 1", bur rates are improving.
I'm hearing part of Lower Bucks County PA approaching 5". I'm probably close to 1", bur rates are improving.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4001
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Light Snow in Commack-Roads coated- 27 degrees
gigs68- Posts : 142
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-16
Location : Commack, NY (NW Suffolk)
Page 6 of 18 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 12 ... 18
Page 6 of 18
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum