NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Page 6 of 18 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 12 ... 18  Next

Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:38 am

Wow 2am sluurrppp, there goes all the precip, it just dies out completely. An hour b4 it shows a large area of precip encompassing the area it does now on radar. If this is true and somehow it all dries up then i think we might all be in for a let down, lets just hope its a bad radar frame but it shows it progrssively drying up.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Downlo10

jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:37 am

Come to SENJ please...right into my back yard!

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 D467ee10

SENJsnowman

Posts : 750
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:12 am

It started to snow lightly. Temp 27*.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:17 am

6z Nam came north.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:20 am

Beware much of those lead bands are virga. I was under a heavy radar band from 5-6am with no snow. Not unexpected with this cold dry air (I referenced this possibility in my last post last night about the radar). 25* here with a dewpoint of 15*. Just need to saturate the column a bit more for the virga to reach the ground. Should happen soon which is consistent with yesterday’s modeling showing no snow until around daybreak.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3634
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jaydoy Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:22 am

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 F9873910

Coming down nice in Long Branch

jaydoy

Posts : 18
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2019-01-23

mmillerc23 and weatherwatchermom like this post

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:28 am

As an aside, we do a lot of model trashing here (often with justification) but I’m still amazed big picture how accurate weather models are in the modern era when you consider where technology was 40-45 years ago. Two examples: the models yesterday both showed that twin forks lead edge of snow streaking ahead of the main precip shield into NNJ and SNJ this morning. That is such a specific feature for a computer model to pick up 24 hours in advance if you think about it. The second is, how many times do models show it not snowing until X a.m. but the radar looks better earlier . . . Only to fall apart and not start snowing until X a.m. Happens a lot I think.
Again, this isn’t to praise the overall accuracy of models, rather to point out scientifically/technologically how impressive what we have is from a human progress standpoint as opposed to even what we had earlier in my own lifetime.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3634
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:32 am

The snow has commenced here in EPA.  06Z NAM was very impressive for the areas between I-80 on south.  There's going to be another good moisture fetch tomorrow as a wave rounds the bend of the 500 mb trough.  That wave tomorrow can surprise especially for LI. Any slight enhancement to it will matter.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 06znam11

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:36 am

The air is warmer at 10k feet now than it is at 5k feet ASL.  Have to watch that for sleet transitions. This bend in the isotherm tells me Philly will sleet.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 700mb10

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:46 am

25* and Light Snow has commenced. Ground frozen so already a coating.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3634
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:55 am

Ripping here northern ocean county streets covered
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by algae888 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:56 am

Snow has  started here in the bronx
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by SkiSeadooJoe Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:57 am

Welp its already mostly sleet down here, ugh
SkiSeadooJoe
SkiSeadooJoe

Posts : 71
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-01-08
Age : 48
Location : Toms River, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:03 am

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:09 am

Not quite half an inch at 7 am but not snowing right now. 20 degrees. I am thinking this storm is slower moving than we thought. Now it is going to be longer of a storm but not a lot of snow-just spread out over time. Barely any wind right now if any. In goes another log into the stove and it's good morning all.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1513
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:09 am

Wow the real story with all of this is the coastal storm tonight into tomorrow. If you read back on my first post that I made, I showed how another piece of vorticity swings through late Thursday and it tries to phase with the energy offshore from today’s snow. It looks like models came around to that idea, and we are now looking at moderate snow today, and lull, then it resuming again around 7am Friday. Some areas across PA and SNY may actually never get into a lull but see continuous light bursts of snow as the energy starts swinging through.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:13 am

Parts of SNJ already have 4-5 inches of snow

Madonna Mia

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:22 am

Current R/S line

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 6bce6210

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:25 am

Heavy sleet in Bayville. Interesting...

SENJsnowman

Posts : 750
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:25 am

Light snow started here
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:26 am

Light snow has started. 24 degrees
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 770
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by mmanisca Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:30 am

@aiannone wrote:Light snow started here
Yup Light Snow in Deer Park
mmanisca
mmanisca

Posts : 182
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 62
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:35 am

23* with Light to Moderate Snow.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3634
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:35 am

21.2/19.5 Moderate snow

I'm hearing part of Lower Bucks County PA approaching 5". I'm probably close to 1", bur rates are improving.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by gigs68 Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:39 am

Light Snow in Commack-Roads coated- 27 degrees
gigs68
gigs68

Posts : 140
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-16
Location : Commack, NY (NW Suffolk)

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 6 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 18 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 12 ... 18  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum