NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

+44
bloc1357
Dunnzoo
hurrysundown23
larryrock72
phil155
dsvinos
docstox12
weatherwatchermom
SNOW MAN
kalleg
Snow88
Radz
Joe Snow
oldtimer
gigs68
mmanisca
Vinnydula
SkiSeadooJoe
algae888
jaydoy
dkodgis
Zhukov1945
skinsfan1177
2004blackwrx
lglickman1
Artingerb
Grselig
GreyBeard
moleson
nutleyblizzard
essexcountypete
billg315
sroc4
amugs
Fededle22
CPcantmeasuresnow
Irish
heehaw453
SENJsnowman
aiannone
DAYBLAZER
jmanley32
frank 638
Frank_Wx
48 posters

Page 5 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 11 ... 18  Next

Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:26 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Image.png.687b2196cdbfc3120055a579e42f4c51

Look at all that warm convective moisture boyz - that what's coming up this way greater than modelled once again!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by 2004blackwrx Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:40 pm

lets hope it leads to mothazilla for all

2004blackwrx
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 505
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-14
Location : Wappinger NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:59 pm

Bill: I moved all my work appts to tonight so I can enjoy tomorrow and now I gotta put Heckle and Jeckle to bed. I’ll be back in a few minutes. I’m still quite cautious though. I see 1-3” as just as likely as both 3-5” and 6-8” for down here.

SENJsnowman

Posts : 767
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:03 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 21870110
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:23 pm

I think it's going to thump well tomorrow. Just not sure exactly how far north the initial WAA best frontogenesis gets. I think I-78 and points south have best shot at really impressive rates tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Could be NJ I-195 to NJ I-78 kind of zone which may avoid sleet and get impressive rates. I agree with Mugs this is going to be quite moist where the frontogenesis is best.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:33 pm

22* with a dewpoint of 10* here. Temperatures will be no issue in this part of the state -- at least at the surface. If I can keep the warm nose south or east of here I should get all snow, and whatever falls should stick in its entirety.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3687
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Zhukov1945 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:45 pm

Looking at radar almost looks like some snow might get here earlier than projected, although with the cold dry air some of that is likely virga.
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Radar_10
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3687
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Zhukov1945 Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:47 pm

@billg315 wrote:22* with a dewpoint of 10* here. Temperatures will be no issue in this part of the state -- at least at the surface. If I can keep the warm nose south or east of here I should get all snow, and whatever falls should stick in its entirety.

Hope you are right...learned to never underestimate the warm nose in this neck of the woods
Zhukov1945
Zhukov1945

Posts : 106
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:01 pm

Its 27 here. Just cold enough for all snow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:02 pm

It is actually lightly snowing right now. 19 degrees. It looks cold enough here for tonight until snow’s end Fri. I thought this was supposed to start Thurs noonish?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1575
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:09 pm

Again as with SB storm and 2017-18 and 2014-15 storms. The convection in the South I'd a tell tale sign for how much latent heat, wv/moisture tnis will have and the frontogenesis that will be occurring once it gets up here. That just doesn't dissipate from experience. The moisture in front will saturate the column and then boom its like tstorms in the summer as we well know here. There will be positive surprises with this for some if not many
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 C45DB0A4-CE99-498F-8A07-B93681AFDBBC.jpeg.76f12a76a746958b643289506bdc2a0a

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:24 pm

Hmm maybe I’m in the minority but the radar doesn’t look fantastic to me. It looked a lot better with the SB storm. 00z NAM kept almost all of SNJ in a mix and really tried to blow up the coastal element of the storm. Might get some nice banding setting up WNW of NYC tomorrow night into Friday

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:44 pm

Frank the SB storm had much more convection than modeled and this one does too. Just using this an apology for compassion purposes
Snowing in Altoona and Armando S put up a great post on another board that portends to what I have been posting about the convection and 700 and 850 frontGenesis. Not wish casting but nowcasting. Time will tell but also GFS has a better Costal LP placement as well to bring some band into the NNJ LHV and NYC metro Friday afternoon and early evening

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Zhukov1945 Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:49 pm

@amugs wrote:Frank the SB storm had much more convection than modeled and this one does too. Just using this an apology for compassion purposes
Snowing in Altoona and Armando S put up a great post on another board that portends to what I have been posting about the convection and 700 and 850 frontGenesis. Not wish casting but nowcasting. Time will tell but also GFS has a better Costal LP placement as well to bring some band into the NNJ LHV and NYC metro Friday afternoon and early evening

I like weather forecasting apologies for compassion purposes too...can think of a lot of us on this board that would benefit from that Smile
Zhukov1945
Zhukov1945

Posts : 106
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:53 pm

Coastal on GFS sbows for 30 hours with this

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 C024FC73-8803-4EB2-BA10-C58F1C31EAB2.png.a76e430a2a13cc972113aef1d71b554f

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:56 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 20B5071C-457C-46D7-B1AF-FA8C760E8FD7.png.b0236dbf7d6da4944ec1368b7d711659

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by amugs Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:57 pm

Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Irish Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:00 pm

@amugs wrote:Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!

So is this a newer development?

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 43
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Irish Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:03 pm

Just upped my predicted totals from 4-6 to possibly upwards of 11.

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 43
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:11 pm

A decent band of snow covering Orange County right now. On radar  but not in reality, I haven't seen a flake.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Inxr1k10
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:13 pm

@amugs wrote:Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!
wait huh? This didnt look at all like this in any runs prior did it?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:19 pm

@amugs wrote:Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!
yet highest is 8-9 inches and NYC south sees 4-5. Thats a super light snow high or low end for 30 hrs.  I get that the main part comes at one point but its still not much and SNJ sees 1.2 qpf but only a few inches other than that one blob?!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:23 pm

GFS is wonky, doesnt show any kind of band like other models.  And even though it shows precip for a long period it doesnt add up to  a whole lot relatively speaking for many, and CP check it out if it's right you jackpot on this one buddy.  I did not see that coming thought this was go be south of NYC win.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Sn10_a12
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:52 pm

00z summary:

GFS- mostly 5-7", a few 4-5" spots and a few 6-10" jackpots (LHV).

CMC- mostly 4-6", So. NJ jackpot 6-9" thru all of coastal Ocean Co. Some 2" spots.

Icon- We all get 2-3"

Nam 12K- So NJ Spectacular- borderline GZ south of 95, 3-4" above it.  Razz  Razz  Razz  Razz

Nam 3K- So NJ Slight Edge- Same as above, but mostly 6" with some 8" south of 95, a layer of 4-6" right along 95 and LI and then 3-5 NEPA on thru NNJ and into LHV. Some spots with 2".

HRRR- 4-6" North of SENJsnowman and 1-3" from SENJ on down. 6-9" jackpot zones NNJ and LHV.

RGEM- generally 4-6", 6-8" jackpot zones in nw NJ and in eastern Suffolk County.

So, my analysis from that summary is that we are all in the game for anywhere from 2-8".

SENJsnowman

Posts : 767
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow and jmanley32 like this post

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:26 am

I just compared all the models too, they are still all over the place jeeze. NAM is all south Jersey special with 2 inches here (in 24 hrs? cool, ill be able to show you guys each flake as they fall and i put them in my freezer. lol, to HRRR who is more uniform from central jersey to LHV. And anywhere in between, yeah 2-8 sounds right.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 5 Empty Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 11 ... 18  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum