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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

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Post by brownie Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:59 am

3.5” on the ground here. Seems to have stopped.

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Post by lglickman1 Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:04 pm

What is a realistic expectation for additional snow accumulation through tomorrow morning in the NYC metro area?

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:07 pm

4" OTG - 25 minutes sleet/mix - tonight into tomorrow some more white gold
Sharpen up that rough a bit more and we'll add another nice round.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:08 pm

lglickman1 wrote:What is a realistic expectation for additional snow accumulation through tomorrow morning in the NYC metro area?

1-2”

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:21 pm

amugs wrote:4" OTG - 25 minutes sleet/mix - tonight into tomorrow some more white gold
Sharpen up that rough a bit more and we'll add another nice round.

So that would make it 4.5"? geek

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:24 pm

Ended up with 3” with round one.
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Post by Radz Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:26 pm

3” here as well...
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Post by kalleg Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:49 pm

New Hope update--very light rain/drizzle, maybe a bit of tiny sleet, 28*

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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:55 pm

Had very fine sleet about a half hour ago. Now snowing very lightly at 20.8*. Looks like there's a little more light snow moving into my area according to radar. I only received 3/4" with the first round.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:11 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Looks like it's pretty much over for wave 1 here.

I'm going to call it at 1.5 inches and try to pretend that this never happened and lick my wounds and move on.

52 inches for the season now and 13.5 inches otg so I can't bitch too much.

Moderate snow started again and radar filled in a bit over us CP. Let's see how the next round goes, wave 1 has busted low.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:22 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 20210217

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:29 pm

Ended up being a fun afternoon. 3 hours of good hearty winter precip and one hour of good heavy snow.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Img-7816

Using that icy foundation to make a little speed pipe.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Img-7817

Oops, need a little modification here, let's try that again...

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Img-7818

Looking better...way to keep that corner tight Lily!!

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Img-7819

And a successful test run!

Trying to eyeball the amount snowfall we got in Bayville...I think Snowey is mad at me for leaving him out in the sleet, so he isn't helping any. Matter of fact, he's being a smart ass about it!

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Img-7820

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:20 pm

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 18 at 3:52PM EST until February 19 at 7:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton
DESCRIPTION: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Light snow and sleet with a chance of freezing drizzle.
Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through
Friday afternoon, and ice accumulations of a light glaze
possible tonight. Total snow and sleet accumulations Thursday
through Friday afternoon of 6 to 8 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:21 pm

Sleet / FRZ mix right now and coming down hard.
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:22 pm

There was mention earlier of a coastal low developing tonight. When I look at the radar, it looks strung out and sliding off to the east. How is this coastal low supposed to develop?

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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:28 pm

Ha ha SNJSnowman check it out, same ruler, LOLThursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 20210211
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:29 pm

GreyBeard wrote:There was mention earlier of a coastal low developing tonight. When I look at the radar, it looks strung out and sliding off to the east. How is this coastal low supposed to develop?

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Bbb10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:33 pm

Thanks Scott. Just didn't look like there was much to work with. Still doesn't, to be honest, but what do I know? lol

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:34 pm

sroc4 wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:There was mention earlier of a coastal low developing tonight. When I look at the radar, it looks strung out and sliding off to the east. How is this coastal low supposed to develop?

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Bbb10

I think this part to the storm will be way more isolated.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:There was mention earlier of a coastal low developing tonight. When I look at the radar, it looks strung out and sliding off to the east. How is this coastal low supposed to develop?

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Bbb10

I think this part to the storm will be way more isolated.  

Going to need to wait until about 5-7am to start to see this second part really take shape with isolated pockets of light and maybe mod snow/sleet overnight. Will have to watch for back filling, esp for the southern area I have circled.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 Hrrr-s10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:55 pm

Same here

Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

IMPACTS...Expect slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the commute times this evening and on Friday morning.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Patchy freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow will continue through the evening hours. Snow, sleet, and rain will then increase Friday around sunrise from the southwest as the next system approaches.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:57 pm

Official numbers are in from NWS and the jackpot out of all the listed areas was central park at 4.0!! HA
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:12 pm

Happy Hour Gfs is hitting Lou's shot n beer joint again

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 CE1E220A-DDC6-42F4-925B-9196D3CDD34D.png.2edafcd2f5353e6f7b09874c3f535477


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:18 pm

amugs wrote:Happy Hour Gfs is hitting Lou's shot n beer joint again

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 CE1E220A-DDC6-42F4-925B-9196D3CDD34D.png.2edafcd2f5353e6f7b09874c3f535477


I'll take that darker blue all over my area (Middlesex county) right over the rain.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:42 pm

Happy Hour Runs of GFS and RGEM
An idea of another 2-3".

Have a coating as light snow continues here in varying intensity that last hour

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:48 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 14 B9766557-286F-47FB-A543-D5372100BF3A.png.0a69c2c93ecccfedf45fd43a65d67f3b

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:08 pm

Just finished shoveling by me we ended up with 4 inches of snow .now it’s freezing drizzle 😞

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