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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:21 pm

Got a coating of ice just got in from sledding with my daughter woohh it was like clark griswold speed jeeze.  Great sledding snow, icy.  Likeing that look for the next round, im hoping can squeeze out 3 from it to make it a even 6. Fran638, you guys literally got a inch more the cutoff was amazingly small, central park measured 4 too.  Seems to cut off was just south of me, no biggie but amazing how razor thin this can be.
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:32 pm

HRRR is showing a mix Freezing Precp at 1:00 am then all snow at 9:00 am, going to be a fun night, hopefully it's sleet and NOT freezing rain like we just had here in KP
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Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:03 pm

Micro flakes for about an hour now. Nice little dusting
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:07 pm

This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.

[b [/b]

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:35 pm

@amugs wrote:This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.

[b [/b]

Yep. Based on soundings I figured about 820 mb. Definitely though the snow growth was terrible as I was getting pixie dust when should've been 3"/hr rates. Mother Nature letting us know where we stand.

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:47 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:

Yep.  Based on soundings I figured about 820 mb.    Definitely though the snow growth was terrible as I was getting pixie dust when should've been 3"/hr rates. Mother Nature letting us know where we stand.

Bingo. As I explained to my 10 year old this morning, that is what ‘real humility’ is all about. A real gut level understanding of just how important we clearly are not compared to Big Momma and whatever she decides to do.


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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:56 pm

@SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Ha ha SNJSnowman check it out, same ruler, LOLThursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 20210211

Ha ha. I’m guessing Toms River Target for both. I unscrewed the pike on mine cuz I could never get it to stick in the ground. Ground is always too frozen!!

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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:48 pm

I am pushing two inches here. It is not snowing right now. The temp is 22 degrees. I have realistic expectations for overnight and into tomorrow. I am begging for 2-3 inches more. I don't think I 'll get it. As Doc said, this storm has busted low. Still, it was a lovely day today watching the very light snow fall and the birds treating the suet and bird feeder as an airport runway. We have the next three weeks, and after that three to four weeks where snow is a gift. I am happy enough with the winter so far. Very Happy
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:02 pm

0z Nam snows till 5pm tmw
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:04 pm

Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 C8eda010
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:18 pm

@aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 C8eda010
a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct. That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:29 pm

NWS storm totals

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 C8eda010
a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 2971c210
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 74321210

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:48 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:NWS storm totals

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

ha, they used my measurement submission!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:49 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 C8eda010
a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 2971c210
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 74321210
tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:15 pm

Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:19 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 C8eda010
a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 2971c210
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 74321210
tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.

Jon I’m not exactly sure what your taking about but Alex posted tonights 00z Nam through later Friday. I then posted the same map plus the first map to show you that at least according to the 00z 12k NAM this is going to fall between initiation and late tomorrow. Alex and I posted the same map. Different sites.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:49 pm

@aiannone wrote:Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid

Same here. It's not really droplets it's like freezing fog and it's not showing up on radar.
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:00 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid

Same here. It's not really droplets it's like freezing fog and it's not showing up on radar.


It’s bad here on the Island. Ice is building up with the freezing drizzle
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:23 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 C8eda010
a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 2971c210
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 15 74321210
tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.

Jon I’m not exactly sure what your taking about but Alex posted tonights 00z Nam through later Friday. I then posted the same map plus the first map to show you that at least according to the 00z 12k NAM this is going to fall between initiation and late tomorrow.  Alex and I posted the same map. Different sites.
Oh jesus the eggs on my face, when I looked at the NAM on pivotalwx it defaulted me to the 18z instead of the 00z even though 00z was running how mean a site, sorry guys.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:25 pm

Well so according to the NAM I might be looking at another 3 inches, that would be a nice addition to round out to a nice 6 total to add to my year.
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Post by Scullybutcher Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:51 am

Does anyone know what’s going to happen on Long Island today?
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:01 am

Ice accrual occurred last night. < .1", but still everything is extremely slippery especially south of I-78. Be careful stepping outdoors.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:24 am

24 degrees and light snow.Looks like another inch fell here last night,bringing total up to around 2.5 inches.Hoping to hit 4 when it's all over.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:25 am

@Scullybutcher wrote:Does anyone know what’s going to happen on Long Island  today?

Bob O. 1-2”

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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