Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Just finished shoveling by me we ended up with 4 inches of snow .now it’s freezing drizzle
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Got a coating of ice just got in from sledding with my daughter woohh it was like clark griswold speed jeeze. Great sledding snow, icy. Likeing that look for the next round, im hoping can squeeze out 3 from it to make it a even 6. Fran638, you guys literally got a inch more the cutoff was amazingly small, central park measured 4 too. Seems to cut off was just south of me, no biggie but amazing how razor thin this can be.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
HRRR is showing a mix Freezing Precp at 1:00 am then all snow at 9:00 am, going to be a fun night, hopefully it's sleet and NOT freezing rain like we just had here in KP
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Micro flakes for about an hour now. Nice little dusting
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.
[b
[b
[/b]There is also drier air higher up that has prevented snow from growing. Saturation aloft increases again by Friday morning and the overall temperature profile will cool to support more light snow into Friday. (2/2)
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) February 18, 2021
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
amugs wrote:This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.
[b[/b]There is also drier air higher up that has prevented snow from growing. Saturation aloft increases again by Friday morning and the overall temperature profile will cool to support more light snow into Friday. (2/2)
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) February 18, 2021
Yep. Based on soundings I figured about 820 mb. Definitely though the snow growth was terrible as I was getting pixie dust when should've been 3"/hr rates. Mother Nature letting us know where we stand.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
heehaw453 wrote:
Yep. Based on soundings I figured about 820 mb. Definitely though the snow growth was terrible as I was getting pixie dust when should've been 3"/hr rates. Mother Nature letting us know where we stand.
Bingo. As I explained to my 10 year old this morning, that is what ‘real humility’ is all about. A real gut level understanding of just how important we clearly are not compared to Big Momma and whatever she decides to do.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
I am pushing two inches here. It is not snowing right now. The temp is 22 degrees. I have realistic expectations for overnight and into tomorrow. I am begging for 2-3 inches more. I don't think I 'll get it. As Doc said, this storm has busted low. Still, it was a lovely day today watching the very light snow fall and the birds treating the suet and bird feeder as an airport runway. We have the next three weeks, and after that three to four weeks where snow is a gift. I am happy enough with the winter so far.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
0z Nam snows till 5pm tmw
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
NWS storm totals
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
GreyBeard wrote:NWS storm totals
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX
ha, they used my measurement submission!
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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
jmanley32 wrote:tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.
Jon I’m not exactly sure what your taking about but Alex posted tonights 00z Nam through later Friday. I then posted the same map plus the first map to show you that at least according to the 00z 12k NAM this is going to fall between initiation and late tomorrow. Alex and I posted the same map. Different sites.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
aiannone wrote:Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid
Same here. It's not really droplets it's like freezing fog and it's not showing up on radar.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
essexcountypete wrote:aiannone wrote:Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid
Same here. It's not really droplets it's like freezing fog and it's not showing up on radar.
It’s bad here on the Island. Ice is building up with the freezing drizzle
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Oh jesus the eggs on my face, when I looked at the NAM on pivotalwx it defaulted me to the 18z instead of the 00z even though 00z was running how mean a site, sorry guys.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.
Jon I’m not exactly sure what your taking about but Alex posted tonights 00z Nam through later Friday. I then posted the same map plus the first map to show you that at least according to the 00z 12k NAM this is going to fall between initiation and late tomorrow. Alex and I posted the same map. Different sites.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Well so according to the NAM I might be looking at another 3 inches, that would be a nice addition to round out to a nice 6 total to add to my year.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Does anyone know what’s going to happen on Long Island today?
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Ice accrual occurred last night. < .1", but still everything is extremely slippery especially south of I-78. Be careful stepping outdoors.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
24 degrees and light snow.Looks like another inch fell here last night,bringing total up to around 2.5 inches.Hoping to hit 4 when it's all over.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast
Scullybutcher wrote:Does anyone know what’s going to happen on Long Island today?
Bob O. 1-2”
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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