2021 Tropical Season

From JB - the correlation of tropical storms/hurricanes correlation to MJO phases

Busiest time of year for a reason!
Texas GC 1st then EC then????

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Euro might be over guessing the rain totals (61.2”)from Nicholas on Texas but man if that ever verified it would be beyond biblical.

Doc, you truly are the man if you can remember that. Not that I doubt you but you display an amazing recall and clarity of times gone by.  I want what you are drinking. I was in first grade. I think I remember it. I remember three days of a cold house without electricity and seeing the view outside the window as buried with snow. This was in Bordentown, NJ. My mom kept the oven on and the window open a few inches during one of those storms. Thus this is my childhood memory of winters being more intense than now. That was the winter. The storm-I remember the wind and rain but we did not have trees near us. Power seemed to go out for a few days often. I remember my dad cooking on a fire outside of our garage.

Those were the days.

amugs wrote:

Models aren't doing much with that area off EC, yet anyways. Lets see if you are right and something ends up developing. It looks like Nicolas may have a impact on the steering of this out to sea if timing is right as nicholas crosses the US, he does not look to really have a impact on us as he is weak, but damn the rain down there....yikes.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Models aren't doing much with that area off EC, yet anyways. Lets see if you are right and something ends up developing.  It looks like Nicolas may have a impact on the steering of this out to sea if timing is right as nicholas crosses the US, he does not look to really have a impact on us as he is weak, but damn the rain down there....yikes.

Nicholas is screwing up my call as he will rob the energy from the development of this as the GFS and EURO were showing just 2 days ago. We shall see but I am not hopeful at this time.

watching reed timmer live..on Tropical storm Nicolas...right now wild weather..3-4 storm surge right now..winds 80 mph

Oh so close with Odette!

Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

Yeah.  What a shame.  Esp with now a days you can bet on anything any time anywhere.  He is the greatest hitter of all time.

100:1 for Pete and 125:1 for Rose

But Sam, likely the orange area, is coming in at 50:1 right now.

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

Yeah.  What a shame.  Esp with now a days you can bet on anything any time anywhere.  He is the greatest hitter of all time.

100:1 for Pete and 125:1 for Rose

But Sam, likely the orange area, is coming in at 50:1 right now.  

Heh funny, but yeah Sam could pose a threat, 12z GFS was a near miss of a potent hurricane. I think Sam will be our last major threat or impact, watch.

This needs to be watched. Sam

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

Yeah.  What a shame.  Esp with now a days you can bet on anything any time anywhere.  He is the greatest hitter of all time.

100:1 for Pete and 125:1 for Rose

But Sam, likely the orange area, is coming in at 50:1 right now.  

Heh funny, but yeah Sam could pose a threat, 12z GFS was a near miss of a potent hurricane.  I think Sam will be our last major threat or impact, watch.

No way Jon. Threats will cont through mid-late Oct

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

Yeah.  What a shame.  Esp with now a days you can bet on anything any time anywhere.  He is the greatest hitter of all time.

100:1 for Pete and 125:1 for Rose

But Sam, likely the orange area, is coming in at 50:1 right now.  

Heh funny, but yeah Sam could pose a threat, 12z GFS was a near miss of a potent hurricane.  I think Sam will be our last major threat or impact, watch.

No way Jon.  Threats will cont through mid-late Oct

No I meant to our area but yeah technically season does go to Nov. but waters up this way cool even more so they will have less of a strong impact if coming up here.

Jon they turn post tropical and can with a front or trough interaction explode. That is our risk.

This could have impacts on the US later this month.

12Z EURO COMING IN HOT...
1RUN... pic.twitter.com/LD4JzzaEsY

— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) September 22, 2021

With forecast Mega honor SE CAN and Greenland can spell trouble.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

Yeah.  What a shame.  Esp with now a days you can bet on anything any time anywhere.  He is the greatest hitter of all time.

100:1 for Pete and 125:1 for Rose

But Sam, likely the orange area, is coming in at 50:1 right now.  

Heh funny, but yeah Sam could pose a threat, 12z GFS was a near miss of a potent hurricane.  I think Sam will be our last major threat or impact, watch.

No way Jon.  Threats will cont through mid-late Oct

No I meant to our area but yeah technically season does go to Nov. but waters up this way cool even more so they will have less of a strong impact if coming up here.

Jon Sandy was not a pure tropical system. It got stronger at landfall because of the phasing with the front. That is the risk for our area given the pattern.

amugs wrote:Jon they turn post tropical and can with a front or trough interaction explode. That is our risk.

This could have impacts on the US later this month.

12Z EURO COMING IN HOT...
1RUN... pic.twitter.com/LD4JzzaEsY

— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) September 22, 2021

With forecast Mega honor SE CAN and Greenland can spell trouble.

Yes, I have seen the runs, latest GFS fantasy land has a near miss by Sam and a second system form off GA coats and just miss, def still be tracking to do!!

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Someone at the NHC is a baseball fan using Pete(r) and then Rose lol

Yeah, but all bets are off that either one hits the east coast.

We should all "place bets" on it.

What odds are you giving? Betting got Pete Rose in trouble and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

Yeah.  What a shame.  Esp with now a days you can bet on anything any time anywhere.  He is the greatest hitter of all time.

100:1 for Pete and 125:1 for Rose

But Sam, likely the orange area, is coming in at 50:1 right now.  

Heh funny, but yeah Sam could pose a threat, 12z GFS was a near miss of a potent hurricane.  I think Sam will be our last major threat or impact, watch.

No way Jon.  Threats will cont through mid-late Oct

No I meant to our area but yeah technically season does go to Nov. but waters up this way cool even more so they will have less of a strong impact if coming up here.

Jon Sandy was not a pure tropical system. It got stronger at landfall because of the phasing with the front. That is the risk for our area given the pattern.

Yes i am aware Sandy was not fully tropical which is what allowed her to be so insanely large and destructive. Yeah Sam and now a potential new development at the end of GFS run, so we def still have tracking to do. Was getting boring but the coming 10-15 days looks to be interesting potentially.

NAO forecast now saying -2/3SD Negative by OCT 10TH. What timing for TC to come up the coast.

Time lapse infrared satellite of IDA. Mesmerizing

amugs wrote:NAO forecast now saying -2/3SD Negative by OCT 10TH.  What timing for TC to come up the coast.

What does that mean bad news for us with potential Sam?

sroc4 wrote:Time lapse infrared satellite of IDA. Mesmerizing

Def cool look at way that area of deep convention blew up right over us. Why exactly did that happen cuz coming is it didn't look that bad until it was on top us.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:NAO forecast now saying -2/3SD Negative by OCT 10TH.  What timing for TC to come up the coast.

What does that mean bad news for us with potential Sam?

Jon,

It could block the storm from going OTS and force to hug the coast or push it into the coast. Lots of time but the set up is something we need to pay attention to.

NAO

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Time lapse infrared satellite of IDA. Mesmerizing

Def cool look at way that area of deep convention blew up right over us. Why exactly did that happen cuz coming is it didn't look that bad until it was on top us.

My goodness!! That was amazing to watch...so glad it ran all the through so we could what unfolded up our way. It almost looks like Ida acted like an inverted plunger and just kept pressure pumping all of that deep gulf convection until it finally broke through...right over NNJ-SNE. You can also totally see how the coast got spare the worst of it. I'm gonna watch it again...thanks for posting Sroc!