2021 Tropical Season

The trend west with Larry on GFS is real last 3 runs of GFS pushing it closer and closer to the northeast, I know it is 168 hrs out and the waffling will be wild but ray (rb) may be onto something, still waiting on that expert analysis ray : )

Larry? Hurricane Larry, it doesn’t even sound like a hurricane name.

Sounds more like a friend that comes over just to drink your beer.
Yes it’s trending west.
Watch this be the “one”

Larry no less ….

Joe Snow wrote:Larry? Hurricane Larry, it doesn’t even sound like a hurricane name.

Sounds more like a friend that comes over just to drink your beer.
Yes it’s trending west.
Watch this be the “one”

Larry no less ….

LMAO, you made me laugh with this one Joe. Why not have Curly and Moe too as hurricane names?

Anyway, the hits keep coming this tropical season.I will be watching if Larry comes up for a beer to the Lower Hudson Valley.

I hate to say this Larry my father’s name lol

frank 638 wrote:I hate to say this Larry my father’s name lol

I mentioned this earlier mine too!! And my dad in the right setting and right conditions can get nasty. But yeah larry is such a dorky name my friend said that sounds like a pathetic name for a hurricane lol, short for lawrence actually which should have been the name. Hurricane Lawrence sounds better.

Accuwx already suggesting that the EC and new england need to watch. But from the track he is taking it is going to take a lot of mechanics to cause a hit rather than OTS.

There really is no N Atlantic blocking to clog things up at the moment, and the incoming trough is very progressive, meaning it moves in and moves out. So unless the timing, and /or strength of the trough over the eastern US changes dramatically relative to its currently modeled forecast there is no way Larry comes within 500-1000miles of the EC.

sroc4 wrote:There really is no N Atlantic blocking to clog things up at the moment, and the incoming trough is very progressive, meaning it moves in and moves out.  So unless the timing, and /or strength of the trough over the eastern US changes dramatically relative to its currently modeled forecast there is no way Larry comes within 500-1000miles of the EC.  

Thank you!!! And ps...wish we lived near you to be our vet. Love mine don't get me wrong ...but you would get a kick out of Ruby..she may look like Fluffy.(finally got 4 pounds!!).but she is a Dynamo...all she needs is a cape as she flies around the house..( I might not survive this puppy stage)and for her baby teeth to fall out .she looks like she has shark teeth ..

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:There really is no N Atlantic blocking to clog things up at the moment, and the incoming trough is very progressive, meaning it moves in and moves out.  So unless the timing, and /or strength of the trough over the eastern US changes dramatically relative to its currently modeled forecast there is no way Larry comes within 500-1000miles of the EC.  

Thank you!!! And ps...wish we lived near you to be our vet. Love mine don't get me wrong ...but you would get a kick out of Ruby..she may look like Fluffy.(finally got 4 pounds!!).but she is a Dynamo...all she needs is a cape as she flies around the house..( I might not survive this puppy stage)and for her baby teeth to fall out .she looks like she has shark teeth ..

Well honestly scott, that's good news. I have had enough excitement, give me a few weeks to recover.

Dramatic video shows a person walking though ankle-deep floodwater in their family’s basement in NJ when the entire wall caves in with gushing water. https://t.co/EhOSP3gEiA pic.twitter.com/izMVv57qYU

— Eyewitness News (@ABC7NY) September 3, 2021

Good God y’all

Freinds son in Mamaroneck were on the 1st floor of their newly purchased home and in 10 minutes their basement filled with water. They had to be rescued by a front bucket loader. The water then flooded there 1st floor with 4' of water. House is basically destroyed.

Larry is a insanely large amazing hurricane, luckily no threat to US and minimal to Bermuda.  What is going on with this area that is supposed to cross FL and re-emerge into the primo area off SC? Could this be the next threat potentially? rb it is okay we forgive you on ur thoughts about Larry not panning out, that would have been the last thing we needed.  Who says a moderate to major hurricane threatens the area still this year? With all this craziness I would not be shocked it all with the way things are going, things come in 3's.

amugs wrote:Freinds son in Mamaroneck were on the 1st floor of their newly purchased home and in 10 minutes their basement filled with water. They had to be rescued by a front bucket loader. The water then flooded there 1st floor with 4' of water. House is basically destroyed.

Mamaroneck was devastated, many of my clients live there or nearby, one told me in hysterics that she lost everything and is not sure if her cats survived or not. Then I lost her on her cell.  Very sad, Yonkers also it it's fair share of devastation, along Hudson many houses has their backyards slide into Metro north tracks and leave the back edge of foundations exposed.  I believe my boss had a major flood as he was out and the next day sounded very down, thought he is very private so I did not ask. There were two mud slides right up the road from me on Midland Ave. If anyone knows where that is. It has happened before and luckily can be repaired but they need a retaining wall of some sort to stop it from covering the road.

Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen. Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

Good times if so...

Zhukov1945 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

Good times if so...

yup 12z GFS TS and it stalls over area till it dries itself up, just swell....yeah gonna be a long several days coming up, NHC just marked the area. rb scott we need you on this one, looks like this one could actually be a threat, do we think will remain minimal TS if develops or are we looking potential hurricane AGAIN. and Ida remnants showed us we do not even need any kind of direct hit. BTW a moment of silence for 9/11 and all the ones we lost and the heroes that survived.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

looks like this is aiming at the following week if models are sniffing it out right, 10 days out and no TD yet we will have no clue but yeah as JB says your right, if thats the set up no good. And you called it man, I swear ur the weather whisperer.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

looks like this is aiming at the following week if models are sniffing it out right, 10 days out and no TD yet we will have no clue but yeah as JB says your right, if thats the set up no good.  And you called it man, I swear ur the weather whisperer.

Only if I can call 6 numbers!!

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

looks like this is aiming at the following week if models are sniffing it out right, 10 days out and no TD yet we will have no clue but yeah as JB says your right, if thats the set up no good.  And you called it man, I swear ur the weather whisperer.

Only if I can call 6 numbers!!

Ha, yeah you best share the wealth at least with Frank for making such a great forum and keeping it funded lol

Well maybe things come in 4's....holy 18z GFS if it is true. two TS hits within 2 days of each other. one making a shark left hook basically what rb was expecting with henri, way to far out to speculate but def disconcerting. 10 day rain forcast is also not good on GFS.

This is crazy but right in the time frame I see. Jesus 2 TC would be like the 1950's or ealryb60's Donna n Hazel or??? Doc, CP anyone else recall?

amugs wrote:
This is crazy but right in the time frame I see. Jesus 2 TC would be like the 1950's or ealryb60's Donna n Hazel or??? Doc, CP anyone else recall?

Mugsy, Donna was in Sept 1960.Had off from school that day and always remember looking out the back window of the house in Fort Lee NJ with Mom and seeing the trees bending over in the high winds.Remember also my Sister who was still living there, playing her 45 RPM "Donna" by Ritchie Valens who passed at Clear Lake Iowa in Feb. 1959.
Hurricane Donna presaged an amazing winter that year of 3 major snowstorms and a 15 day sub freezing stretch in Jan-Feb 1961.

From JB - the correlation of tropical storms/hurricanes correlation to MJO phases

Busiest time of year for a reason!
Texas GC 1st then EC then????