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2021 Tropical Season

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Post by docstox12 Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:31 am

@Joe Snow wrote:Larry? Hurricane Larry, it doesn’t even sound like a hurricane name.

Sounds more like a friend that comes over just to drink your beer.
Yes it’s trending west.
Watch this be the “one”

Larry no less ….

LMAO, you made me laugh with this one Joe. Why not have Curly and Moe too as hurricane names?

Anyway, the hits keep coming this tropical season.I will be watching if Larry comes up for a beer to the Lower Hudson Valley.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:15 am

I hate to say this Larry my father’s name lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:52 am

@frank 638 wrote:I hate to say this Larry my father’s name lol
I mentioned this earlier mine too!! And my dad in the right setting and right conditions can get nasty. But yeah larry is such a dorky name my friend said that sounds like a pathetic name for a hurricane lol, short for lawrence actually which should have been the name. Hurricane Lawrence sounds better.

Accuwx already suggesting that the EC and new england need to watch. But from the track he is taking it is going to take a lot of mechanics to cause a hit rather than OTS.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:09 pm

There really is no N Atlantic blocking to clog things up at the moment, and the incoming trough is very progressive, meaning it moves in and moves out. So unless the timing, and /or strength of the trough over the eastern US changes dramatically relative to its currently modeled forecast there is no way Larry comes within 500-1000miles of the EC.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Lwt10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:33 pm

@sroc4 wrote:There really is no N Atlantic blocking to clog things up at the moment, and the incoming trough is very progressive, meaning it moves in and moves out.  So unless the timing, and /or strength of the trough over the eastern US changes dramatically relative to its currently modeled forecast there is no way Larry comes within 500-1000miles of the EC.  

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Lwt10
Thank you!!! And ps...wish we lived near you to be our vet. Love mine don't get me wrong ...but you would get a kick out of Ruby..she may look like Fluffy.(finally got 4 pounds!!).but she is a Dynamo...all she needs is a cape as she flies around the house..( I might not survive this puppy stage)and for her baby teeth to fall out .she looks like she has shark teeth ..😂😂
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:39 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:There really is no N Atlantic blocking to clog things up at the moment, and the incoming trough is very progressive, meaning it moves in and moves out.  So unless the timing, and /or strength of the trough over the eastern US changes dramatically relative to its currently modeled forecast there is no way Larry comes within 500-1000miles of the EC.  

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Lwt10
Thank you!!! And ps...wish we lived near you to be our vet. Love mine don't get me wrong ...but you would get a kick out of Ruby..she may look like Fluffy.(finally got 4 pounds!!).but she is a Dynamo...all she needs is a cape as she flies around the house..( I might not survive this puppy stage)and for her baby teeth to fall out .she looks like she has shark teeth ..😂😂

lol! lol! lol!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:04 pm

Well honestly scott, that's good news. I have had enough excitement, give me a few weeks to recover.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:44 pm


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Post by dkodgis Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:13 pm

Good God y’all
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:12 pm

Freinds son in Mamaroneck were on the 1st floor of their newly purchased home and in 10 minutes their basement filled with water. They had to be rescued by a front bucket loader. The water then flooded there 1st floor with 4' of water. House is basically destroyed.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:25 pm

Larry is a insanely large amazing hurricane, luckily no threat to US and minimal to Bermuda.  What is going on with this area that is supposed to cross FL and re-emerge into the primo area off SC? Could this be the next threat potentially? rb it is okay we forgive you on ur thoughts about Larry not panning out, that would have been the last thing we needed.  Who says a moderate to major hurricane threatens the area still this year? With all this craziness I would not be shocked it all with the way things are going, things come in 3's.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:30 pm

@amugs wrote:Freinds son in Mamaroneck were on the 1st floor of their newly purchased home and in 10 minutes their basement filled with water. They had to be rescued by a front bucket loader. The water then flooded there 1st floor with 4' of water. House is basically destroyed.
Mamaroneck was devastated, many of my clients live there or nearby, one told me in hysterics that she lost everything and is not sure if her cats survived or not. Then I lost her on her cell.  Very sad, Yonkers also it it's fair share of devastation, along Hudson many houses has their backyards slide into Metro north tracks and leave the back edge of foundations exposed.  I believe my boss had a major flood as he was out and the next day sounded very down, thought he is very private so I did not ask. There were two mud slides right up the road from me on Midland Ave. If anyone knows where that is. It has happened before and luckily can be repaired but they need a retaining wall of some sort to stop it from covering the road.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:43 am

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Two_atl_5d0

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 10, 2021 8:43 pm

Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen. Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:59 am

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

Good times if so...

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Gfs_re10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:34 pm

@Zhukov1945 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.

Good times if so...

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Gfs_re10
yup 12z GFS TS and it stalls over area till it dries itself up, just swell....yeah gonna be a long several days coming up, NHC just marked the area. rb scott we need you on this one, looks like this one could actually be a threat, do we think will remain minimal TS if develops or are we looking potential hurricane AGAIN. and Ida remnants showed us we do not even need any kind of direct hit. BTW a moment of silence for 9/11 and all the ones we lost and the heroes that survived.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:37 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.
looks like this is aiming at the following week if models are sniffing it out right, 10 days out and no TD yet we will have no clue but yeah as JB says your right, if thats the set up no good. And you called it man, I swear ur the weather whisperer.
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.
looks like this is aiming at the following week if models are sniffing it out right, 10 days out and no TD yet we will have no clue but yeah as JB says your right, if thats the set up no good.  And you called it man, I swear ur the weather whisperer.


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Only if I can call 6 numbers!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:27 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Euro and GFS sniffing something developing midweek around 15th or 16th. Fitting for it to be a wednesday. Mark my words it'll happen.  Wednesdays are doomsday it seems this year.

HP over Easter Canada. Trouble over tropical waters as JB would say. Fitting to what I said last month 2nd week of Sept to look for something to brew up th east coast and our takes a hit. Time will tell.
looks like this is aiming at the following week if models are sniffing it out right, 10 days out and no TD yet we will have no clue but yeah as JB says your right, if thats the set up no good.  And you called it man, I swear ur the weather whisperer.


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Only if I can call 6 numbers!!
Ha, yeah you best share the wealth at least with Frank for making such a great forum and keeping it funded lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:07 pm

Well maybe things come in 4's....holy 18z GFS if it is true. two TS hits within 2 days of each other. one making a shark left hook basically what rb was expecting with henri, way to far out to speculate but def disconcerting. 10 day rain forcast is also not good on GFS.
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:14 pm


This is crazy but right in the time frame I see. Jesus 2 TC would be like the 1950's or ealryb60's Donna n Hazel or??? Doc, CP anyone else recall?



 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Two_at10
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Gfs_ms15
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Two_at10
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Gfs_ms15

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Post by docstox12 Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:23 am

@amugs wrote:
This is crazy but right in the time frame I see. Jesus 2 TC would be like the 1950's or ealryb60's Donna n Hazel or??? Doc, CP anyone else recall?



 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Two_at10
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Gfs_ms15
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Two_at10
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Gfs_ms15

Mugsy, Donna was in Sept 1960.Had off from school that day and always remember looking out the back window of the house in Fort Lee NJ with Mom and seeing the trees bending over in the high winds.Remember also my Sister who was still living there, playing her 45 RPM "Donna" by Ritchie Valens who passed at Clear Lake Iowa in Feb. 1959.
Hurricane Donna presaged an amazing winter that year of 3 major snowstorms and a 15 day sub freezing stretch in Jan-Feb 1961.
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Post by amugs Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:48 am

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 E_FvwwOX0AouvYQ?format=png&name=small

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 E_Fvyx2XoAEVICU?format=png&name=small

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 E_Fv0EWWQAIttpl?format=png&name=small

From JB - the correlation of tropical storms/hurricanes correlation to MJO phases

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Post by amugs Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:50 am

Busiest time of year for a reason!
Texas GC 1st then EC then????

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 41 Two_atl_5d0.png.cd0c42cb88caf9f39a854598b9b7e688

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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