2021 Tropical Season

rb924119 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:GFS Op trended with everything else tonight, landfalls central Long Island as a Cat-2. I expect thebGFS Ensembles to look worse, as the operational has been chasing the southwestern periphery of them for days.

what??

Eastern* Long Island. My bad.

But yeah, things got way worse in a hurry. Every model has come much more in line with me tonight, in fact, almost perfectly, but I don’t think we are done trending westward yet based on what I’m seeing tonight. As I expected the GFS Ensembles were scary, especially aloft, the GEM and the UKMET also caved, though the GEM isn’t quite there yet. Waiting on the EURO now, but I would expect it to follow everything else tonight and come in significantly further west.

that's not good are you still living down the shore. I am by Sandy hook..do you think it would effect us here??

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:GFS Op trended with everything else tonight, landfalls central Long Island as a Cat-2. I expect thebGFS Ensembles to look worse, as the operational has been chasing the southwestern periphery of them for days.

what??

Eastern* Long Island. My bad.

But yeah, things got way worse in a hurry. Every model has come much more in line with me tonight, in fact, almost perfectly, but I don’t think we are done trending westward yet based on what I’m seeing tonight. As I expected the GFS Ensembles were scary, especially aloft, the GEM and the UKMET also caved, though the GEM isn’t quite there yet. Waiting on the EURO now, but I would expect it to follow everything else tonight and come in significantly further west.

that's not good are you still living down the shore. I am by Sandy hook..do you think it would effect us here??

I am!! Unfortunately, yes. I don’t think we are done trending with the westward extent of this storm, and I think our area (this forum’s as a whole) is very susceptible to this threat right now.

jmanley32 wrote:rb NHC cone jumped west and now the coast is barely in but still in the wind probability zone.  Yesterday that area was well out at sea and they have henri turning to a hurricane as he turns to the north, this will def be interesting. So far things you have said are all falling in line so kudos so far. My question is how much of a impact COULD this have on the area? Are we looking at potential of a very impactful hurricane? Usually the worst part is on the eastern side, if it were to retrograde around cape cod and made it far enough west I would think we would mainly see just rain maybe some blustery winds, the main winds usually reside in the NE quadrant.  I would think it would need to retrograde in NJ to really have big impacts on the tristate?

In terms possible impacts; yes. I think substantial disruption is certainly possible, if not probable in this case, especially IF my ideas hold true. In my opinion, I can see us taking a hit from a high end tropical storm to a high grade category 1 hurricane, even if it doesn’t technically make landfall. THAT SAID, as of current modeling, the highest threat of this is into southeastern New England. Some of the guidance is indicating the potential for an even stronger storm with much more damage potential, but I’m not ready to jump on that bandwagon yet. Lets get the track settled first, and then we can try to pin down the intensity if we need to.

The storm wouldn’t necessarily need to make it inland for widespread impacts, especially in a situation like this where it interacts with a mid-latitude trough. Depending on the extent of the interaction, it could/would allow the storm to remain steady-state or even strengthen further while increasing the overall size of its wind field, just like Sandy did. So if that happens, it could stall 100 miles offshore, but if the wind radius is 500 miles, it doesn’t matter. Plus, if it does stall, it would prolong those conditions thereby increasing the damage.

jmanley32 wrote:BTW check 18z GFS, tries to retrograde into cape before immediately pulling east.  Still showing signs you are onto something.  A day or so ago this was not even on the operational models at all.  Usually we are talking about these things 15+ days out not 5-6.

Yeah, modeling has been HORRIBLE this year, which is why I said the Operational models will be useless even inside of a couple days. Now you see why haha idk why they’ve been so bad, though. But they are awful.

Wow rb models keep going in your direction (yes I know you said not to look at operationals but I do anyways lol), 06z GFS is NOT good at all verbatim. 985mb cane into eastern LI, fairly large cane too. So does 00z NAM show a direct path north from its last frame? I imagine you are talking extrapolated out because only goes to 84 hrs, it has henri pretty weak. And yet again NHC bumps cone west, still a huge spread on the cone but thats normal.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:rb NHC cone jumped west and now the coast is barely in but still in the wind probability zone.  Yesterday that area was well out at sea and they have henri turning to a hurricane as he turns to the north, this will def be interesting. So far things you have said are all falling in line so kudos so far. My question is how much of a impact COULD this have on the area? Are we looking at potential of a very impactful hurricane? Usually the worst part is on the eastern side, if it were to retrograde around cape cod and made it far enough west I would think we would mainly see just rain maybe some blustery winds, the main winds usually reside in the NE quadrant.  I would think it would need to retrograde in NJ to really have big impacts on the tristate?

In terms possible impacts; yes. I think substantial disruption is certainly possible, if not probable in this case, especially IF my ideas hold true. In my opinion, I can see us taking a hit from a high end tropical storm to a high grade category 1 hurricane, even if it doesn’t technically make landfall. THAT SAID, as of current modeling, the highest threat of this is into southeastern New England. Some of the guidance is indicating the potential for an even stronger storm with much more damage potential, but I’m not ready to jump on that bandwagon yet. Lets get the track settled first, and then we can try to pin down the intensity if we need to.

The storm wouldn’t necessarily need to make it inland for widespread impacts, especially in a situation like this where it interacts with a mid-latitude trough. Depending on the extent of the interaction, it could/would allow the storm to remain steady-state or even strengthen further while increasing the overall size of its wind field, just like Sandy did. So if that happens, it could stall 100 miles offshore, but if the wind radius is 500 miles, it doesn’t matter. Plus, if it does stall, it would prolong those conditions thereby increasing the damage.

You keep referencing Sandy are you hinting that this could a be anear identical situation? Cuz to mention Sandy is nothing to be taken lightly as I am sure you are aware.  Was terrible storm, I still remember it like yesterday, we were lucky and I guess I cannot complain aboiut losing power for 7 days in comparison to all the shore areas that were lost.

And 00z Euro appears that she lost Henri all together and doesnt even have him starting where he is at at the beginning of the run but I can only see the TT site for Euro so.

Euro continues to insist that the shear wins out weakening the system, and rendering it a non event as it approaches. Ray I think you're 100% correct in the idea that if it remains stronger and does not weaken from the shear then the diabatic outflow will enhance that ridging confirming your original idea. However you can already see on WV imagery the nice cirrus outflow arms that were extending out nicely last night on the northern side are being suppressed by the northerly shear. There does remain a compact area of convection over top of what appears to be the LLC. The next 24-48hrs will be key to if NE really needs to be on guard or not. Some of the models have caught onto your idea Ray, but not all of them. The euro continues to show a much weaker system. At least my curiosity is being tickled..lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=wv-mid

So I guess...we track. Thanks rb Jman and Sroc for all the updates and analysis. rb, once again an amazing job of outperforming the models to this point. That said, I obviously hope that Srocs shearing theory wins out. A retrograded 3-day TS/Cat1 bearing down on the shore points of NJ and NY will all that wind and all that surging saltwater would be disastrous to say the least.  

But if we can manage a little Jman special just catching a glancing blow of a TD or a weakened TS for a day or two, that could be cool...

Starting to see flash flood warnings, and heavy rain predicted up here starting tonight. Could be a few soggy days ahead. How much more humid can it get?

Henri is getting a little too close for comfort. Although majority are likely to feel little to no impacts, the extreme eastern areas of NJ and LI should pay close attention in the event he keeps trending west.

12z guidance today is keeping him off the coast. However, the surf is going to be extremely dangerous this weekend. No swimming!



One reason we're seeing this trend west is due to timing of a cold front moving into the area which attempts to partially capture Henri and 'reel' him in.

Frank_Wx wrote:Henri is getting a little too close for comfort. Although majority are likely to feel little to no impacts, the extreme eastern areas of NJ and LI should pay close attention in the event he keeps trending west.

12z guidance today is keeping him off the coast. However, the surf is going to be extremely dangerous this weekend. No swimming!



One reason we're seeing this trend west is due to timing of a cold front moving into the area which attempts to partially capture Henri and 'reel' him in.

Yeah, 12z GFS pulls a sandy-like retrograde into eastern LI and CT as a strong cane, not saying its go happen but NHC also pushed the cone west again and the wind probability field is slow expanding west, they should have a rain probability field. But this def has my watch and if rb is right oy.

Yikes 12z GFS, keeps heading west riding LI, that would be devastating.  When have we ever seen something like that happen though. These movements to the west remind me of what we saw with sandy as i recall she starting showing a retrograde around LI then ended up being southern jersey. Yeah frank def no swimming, i wont go in ocean anymore with the great whites all over anymore. Used to love the cape.

Close Up

It took a 100 mile jump west at 12Z.
It has my interest for sure now since teh tend is starting BUT there is lots of timing that needs to happen but IN Rb and SROC we Trust.
These storms have somewhat defied shearing, there is and have had RI as they are close to the coast. Now IF we get a cold front which looks to be moderate in teeth comes into play then it will not mater what the water temps are cause it will drove into this storm an injection of energy that can allow for teh cold cloud tops to reinvigorate/form thus helping Henri strengthen. Makes sense?

Stu is on the scene now as well. Many have woken from the Dog Days of summer slumber LOL!

#Henri 🧐 pic.twitter.com/NAClc3jaks

— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) August 18, 2021

Andy is out too

Definitely a trend worth watching on the 12Z GFS ensemble for #Henri. Majority of members now get close enough to cause impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and/or coastal New England. Still lots of uncertainty but this is one to keep an eye on. pic.twitter.com/iITsm6PhZx

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 18, 2021

Jman, I referenced Sandy because it's the clearest and well-remembered example. I hesitate to answer the second part of your question, because, if I'm being completely transparent, I'm getting the same "oh crap" feeling that I had days before that actually happened. That said, I don't think this storm will be as strong or as large, and using my approximate track graphic from earlier, I'm not sold on a technical landfall/inland retrograde; but I am banking on a (very) near miss offshore. Even if the center is 100 miles away, there would still be substantial impacts if it's a category 1, or as some guidance is now indicating, category 2 storm, especially to the coastal communities, and depending on exactly where it goes.

Scott, at face value, you're correct. However, I'm looking solely at the trends aloft, and the EURO is steadily caving to the other guidance, as is the GEM. And after seeing the GFS suites, the NAM, and the UK holding firm and even opening the door for a continued westward shift in the track based on the look/evolution of their upper level representations, I expect the EURO will continue to trend in that direction also. Seeing that the GFS suite and the UKMET be more amplified/further west of the EURO suite when they are normally the most progressive (south/east outliers) in the multi-model ensemble, is a HUGE red flag to me that the EURO is still adjusting.

Additionally, Henri is looking really healthy to me right now on satellite with the deep convection over the central circulation now, and an expanding cirrus outflow allowing for better venting aloft. I have also seen brief instances of transverse banding, all of which are usually indicative of intensification, so it would not at all surprise me to see it drop pressure/increase the wind speeds throughout the day today.

Frank_Wx wrote:Henri is getting a little too close for comfort. Although majority are likely to feel little to no impacts, the extreme eastern areas of NJ and LI should pay close attention in the event he keeps trending west.

12z guidance today is keeping him off the coast. However, the surf is going to be extremely dangerous this weekend. No swimming!



One reason we're seeing this trend west is due to timing of a cold front moving into the area which attempts to partially capture Henri and 'reel' him in.

Frank! To quote Bruce Willis: "Welcome to the party, pal!" hahaha Good to see ya posting, brother!

The Euro made additional corrections with a deeper and more negatively tilted eastern CONUS trough, which is significant, but it was still an overall incremental adjustment; nothing MAJOR. Still brings the storm harmlessly out to sea, but seeing as though it's initializing nearly 15mb too high with Henri's pressure right off the bat, and continues to trend stronger versus previous runs overall through the first 60 hours, or so, makes me think that we should continue to anticipate corrections westward with it and its ensemble. The same goes for the GEM suite. Just my opinion, though; time will tell.

rb924119 wrote:Jman, I referenced Sandy because it's the clearest and well-remembered example. I hesitate to answer the second part of your question, because, if I'm being completely transparent, I'm getting the same "oh crap" feeling that I had days before that actually happened. That said, I don't think this storm will be as strong or as large, and using my approximate track graphic from earlier, I'm not sold on a technical landfall/inland retrograde; but I am banking on a (very) near miss offshore. Even if the center is 100 miles away, there would still be substantial impacts if it's a category 1, or as some guidance is now indicating, category 2 storm, especially to the coastal communities, and depending on exactly where it goes.

Scott, at face value, you're correct. However, I'm looking solely at the trends aloft, and the EURO is steadily caving to the other guidance, as is the GEM. And after seeing the GFS suites, the NAM, and the UK holding firm and even opening the door for a continued westward shift in the track based on the look/evolution of their upper level representations, I expect the EURO will continue to trend in that direction also. Seeing that the GFS suite and the UKMET be more amplified/further west of the EURO suite when they are normally the most progressive (south/east outliers) in the multi-model ensemble, is a HUGE red flag to me that the EURO is still adjusting.

Additionally, Henri is looking really healthy to me right now on satellite with the deep convection over the central circulation now, and an expanding cirrus outflow allowing for better venting aloft. I have also seen brief instances of transverse banding, all of which are usually indicative of intensification, so it would not at all surprise me to see it drop pressure/increase the wind speeds throughout the day today.

Look at NHC wind potential percentage it has a area curving west into NE, guess they are seeing this potential, though low as something to watch.

18z update: max winds up to 60 knots. Just about category 1. I expect pressure to drop with a possible upgrade at 5pm. Also, now majority of hurricane model guidance now shows some form of northwestward hook into southern New England. Mean intensity up to mid-high grade category 1.

Another jump west with the 18z suite

Euro ensembles:




Euro op conts to insist that a much weaker system will emerge before shear lets up come friday.  The worst of the shear will come today through friday morning.  That is also the approx time we will see the turn towards the more northerly direction.  

You can clearly see the shear as noted on the loop by the N to south movement of the clouds.  You can see it moving under the cirrus outflow quite nicely.  Im pretty confident that we wont see much strengthening between now and Friday.  But do we see the weakening the euro has insisted on or will it cave?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=wv-mid

https://mobile.twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1428061832246333442?s=10

#Henri is unfortunately a case where ECMWF guidance is not useful. It does not assimilate synthetic observations of TC intensity, so it thinks Henri is much too weak at 1013 hPa. Models like HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC should perform better here. pic.twitter.com/l0axoOWu47

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 18, 2021