2021 Tropical Season

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Might have to jump on The Long Road Out of Eden and take the exit for Hotel California for evacuation if Henri comes any further west lol

Thank you, Scott, I was getting very upset that nobody saw what I did there aha

NAM actually came pretty far east, still a LI hit but 06z was more towards NYC. Probably still waffling.

That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Might have to jump on The Long Road Out of Eden and take the exit for Hotel California for evacuation if Henri comes any further west lol

Thank you, Scott, I was getting very upset that nobody saw what I did there aha

I saw it and LOL'd I just did not comment. Good one.

3km nam is west so far. Lets see what it does, not always exact same track as lower res NAM.

Huge shift west on 3km NAM basically into western LI nyc. wow, and has come off the insane sub 930mb intensity, still around 950mb but coming up to a more reasonable pressure and will probably continue to correct intensity.

WOW



Thats some serious wind (yes I know it is 850's but there is plenty of convection to bring down most of it verbatim, likely do not take this verbatim), not no weak TS, strange the highest winds are on the western side and the heaviest rains, thats not usual.

3k NAM looks like what the regular NAM SHOULD HAVE looked like IMO.

rb924119 wrote:3k NAM looks like what the regular NAM SHOULD HAVE looked like IMO.

just posted the nam images above, thats about as bad as it could get for the tristate and southern NY, I get creamed as do many on that run.

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough. If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real. I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run. This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall

3km NAM Wow western LI landfall then another landfall in far western CT/eastern southern NY. bad bad run in terms of impacts.  basically takes RI and cape out of it, ironic. And the wost part he crawls extremely slowly the entire time moving inland, not like our usualy 3-4 hour fly bys.

current observations have the LLC almost completely exposed with the convection centered well SSEof its center indicating the system is still significantly tilted NW to SE. This is a direct result of the shear and the reason the intensity forecst has been delayed a bit.  Look at the real time loop to see for yourself:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=truecolor

jmanley32 wrote:Wow western LI landfal lthen another landfall in far westerCT/eastern southern NY. bad bad run i nterms of impacts.  basically takes RI and cape out of it, ironic.

Any model that jumps run to run like the NAM is doing should be tossed. At least looking at landfall and track. Still fine with lookingh at upper level features, but ts track should not be looked at. 99% of the time the differences between the GFS and the Euro is going to give you a fairly accurate cone of uncertainty.

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Oh man, I hope you make it and hope you enjoy the show. If we get that jog west, that might be a tough call to let that show go on, but hopefully things will calm by the evening.

Love the Eagles, and Joe Walsh is one of my all time favs. Joe moved to my hometown, Montclair, NJ, when he was young and graduated from our high school, and we always dreamed of him coming back to do a show for us students. Fast forward a few decades to 2015, on his 50th graduation anniversary, and the 100th anniversary of our high school, he came and did a benefit show in our high school auditorium. It was just awesome. I hope you get to see them Sunday. Enjoy!

https://www.njarts.net/joe-walsh-returns-to-his-high-school-in-montclair-for-a-rocking-benefit/

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

sroc4 wrote:current observations have the LLC almost completely exposed with the convection centered well SSEof its center indicating the system is still significantly tilted NW to SE.  This is a direct result of the shear and the reason the intensity forecst has been delayed a bit.    Look at the real time loop to see for yourself:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=truecolor

still looks impressive but i see what your saying but is still holding on, good spin on both levels and huge convection continues to fire. we just need that shear to let up. which as far as i understand is the expected outcome today.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow western LI landfal lthen another landfall in far westerCT/eastern southern NY. bad bad run i nterms of impacts.  basically takes RI and cape out of it, ironic.

Any model that jumps run to run like the NAM is doing should be tossed.  At least looking at landfall and track.  Still fine with lookingh at upper level features, but ts track should not be looked at.  99% of the time the differences between the GFS and the Euro is going to give you a fairly accurate cone of uncertainty.  

Oh I know hence why I said do not take verbatim but it is still a possibility that a farther western track happens. We will see, you and rb are leading th way on this, im just having fun following along haha

ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

well then...that is surely a S##t show, right smack into nyc. How much stance do we put in the ICON?

11am advisory out no change in intensity, nice job rb about the maintenance part!! did the cone shift west? I think the plots did but i do not have the cone from this morning or last night to compare. the wind chances have upped to the west even nyc is near 50-60% now and eastern LI is now at 80% chance of 39mph-57mph. it is crazy how far north west and east that wind field chances are.

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

RGEM slightly more west than 6z as well. Then, of course there's the ARW.

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

RGEM slightly more west than 6z as well. Then, of course there's the ARW.

well now we have sandy redux on that run albeit not as intense or large, just in terms of a extreme turn west. The models are still not set on any one solution.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

well then...that is surely a S##t show, right smack into nyc. How much stance do we put in the ICON?

ICON to me tends to bounce around from run to run so I would take it for what it is. That being said it was a scary run. If the rest of the 12Z suite trends that way I’ll be much more concerned.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

well then...that is surely a S##t show, right smack into nyc. How much stance do we put in the ICON?

If it was alone/unsupported in its ideas? Pretty much zero. But it’s not lol

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

Timing and positioning are kind of one in the same. 6 of one half dozen of another. I still think we cannot look at this as simple as "being captured by the trough" And positioning of "the trough", because this is a cutoff low capturing Henri which acts as the fulcrum to the pivot to start. It, the ULL, gets captured, by the mean trough coming in from the west. Its capture is weak at best until our system has made landfall. So this is a much more complex discussion on that front. The energy rounding the base of the mean trough is minimally consequential in its direct influence to Henri. The capture of the ULL and its initial interactions with Henri, before it is weakly captured by the mean trough, is adding minimal amts of energy to Henri. Its main influence is in its capture, and uses as the pivot to steer him along with the ridge to the NE, and weakly at that as the steering current will be weak when he reaches North of the latitude of NCarolina.





I undertsnd

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

well then...that is surely a S##t show, right smack into nyc. How much stance do we put in the ICON?

ICON to me tends to bounce around from run to run so I would take it for what it is. That being said it was a scary run. If the rest of the 12Z suite trends that way I’ll be much more concerned.

well NAM did not, so I doubt the ARW is right, and who uses that model anyways.

GFS should be coming further west as well based on the upper levels.