Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **dkodgis** Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:19 am

Good point! I notice the NWS is calling for low rain totals Sat evening into Sunday. Something like 3/4 of an inch for Sun. That seems so low. Let’s see the 12z run

by Nyi1058 Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:40 am

Been a while since I checked in here. Can somebody please steer this thing away from Montauk ?

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:42 am

12z hurricane models west

2021 Tropical Season - Page 12 08L_tracks_12z

6z

2021 Tropical Season - Page 12 08L_tracks_06z

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:04 am

Man...might need to sound the alarm with this one. Granted, we’re not looking at anything catastrophic but certainly has the potential to cause flooding for both the coast and interior sections away from the shore. The coast could deal with surge, NOT like Sandy but minor enough it can still cause issues.

Wind will also be a factor. Seems like Long Island will be in the thick of it with winds gusting at tropical storm force. Potentially over 60mph. I’m going to take a better look at this one as today’s models come in.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:15 am

EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

by **amugs** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:17 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Man...might need to sound the alarm with this one. Granted, we’re not looking at anything catastrophic but certainly has the potential to cause flooding for both the coast and interior sections away from the shore. The coast could deal with surge, NOT like Sandy but minor enough it can still cause issues.

Wind will also be a factor. Seems like Long Island will be in the thick of it with winds gusting at tropical storm force. Potentially over 60mph. I’m going to take a better look at this one as today’s models come in.

Astronomical High tide due to full moon fever peeps. Add about 1' to this.mkderate CF is possible IMO.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:19 am

amugs wrote:EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

If thatws the ensembles which it is I hate to see what some of the higher end ones are in terms of rain. Looks at very least NYC gets a ton rain.
western side always highest rain, that wind threat doesn't have come far to get into NYC and jrsy, bought 50 miles. we will see.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:22 am

I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

by **dkodgis** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:23 am

The Eagles give as perfect a concert as you could want. Excellent musicians

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:37 am

amugs wrote:EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:38 am

Sanchize06 wrote:12z hurricane models west

6z

Jinkies!!!

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:40 am

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

rb when do you think that spread will shrink? Thats a nuts spread though it is trending west there's still plenty to the east. Not a whole bunch time left. 48 hrs from first effects NHC said in discussion. Interesting none show a hurricane strength storm at all in those paths, do you think that will change? Or are we expect now for Henri to stay a TS?

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:42 am

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Might have to jump on The Long Road Out of Eden and take the exit for Hotel California for evacuation if Henri comes any further west lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:43 am

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z hurricane models west

6z

Jinkies!!!

Cant ignore those tracks smack into NYC, wow, not many but lets see where the others to the east trend.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:50 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

rb when do you think that spread will shrink? Thats a nuts spread though it is trending west there's still plenty to the east. Not a whole bunch time left. 48 hrs from first effects NHC said in discussion. Interesting none show a hurricane strength storm at all in those paths, do you think that will change? Or are we expect now for Henri to stay a TS?

I think tonight’s 00z runs should hone in pretty good. That said, the EURO still appears to be adjusting, along with the rest of the guidance, so personally, I’m knocking off those eastern members anyway. Additionally, those eastern members are members that still steadily weaken the storm as it comes northward, which, in my opinion, is incorrect. Overall, I also think the EURO suite is too weak, which is partially why we continue to see it adjust. The other reason is because of the changes with the trough. As I’ve maintained, I think we see anywhere from a high-grade tropical storm to a mid-high grade category 1 storm.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:53 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z hurricane models west

6z

Jinkies!!!
Cant ignore those tracks smack into NYC, wow, not many but lets see where the others to the east trend.

Keep in mind that the hurricane guidance hast consistently been on the eastern side of the multi-model ensemble. Seeing them come that far west AGAIN makes me think the 12z runs of the short-range and global guidance may get pretty ugly……

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:53 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

rb when do you think that spread will shrink? Thats a nuts spread though it is trending west there's still plenty to the east. Not a whole bunch time left. 48 hrs from first effects NHC said in discussion. Interesting none show a hurricane strength storm at all in those paths, do you think that will change? Or are we expect now for Henri to stay a TS?

I think tonight’s 00z runs should hone in pretty good. That said, the EURO still appears to be adjusting, along with the rest of the guidance, so personally, I’m knocking off those eastern members anyway. Additionally, those eastern members are members that still steadily weaken the storm as it comes northward, which, in my opinion, is incorrect. Overall, I also think the EURO suite is too weak, which is partially why we continue to see it adjust. The other reason is because of the changes with the trough. As I’ve maintained, I think we see anywhere from a high-grade tropical storm to a mid-high grade category 1 storm.

Do you still feel a more west track is in play putting it near central or western LI or even further west as some of the GEFS show heading smack into NYC, even one into central jrsy.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS HUMINA! HUMINA!

rb when do you think that spread will shrink? Thats a nuts spread though it is trending west there's still plenty to the east. Not a whole bunch time left. 48 hrs from first effects NHC said in discussion. Interesting none show a hurricane strength storm at all in those paths, do you think that will change? Or are we expect now for Henri to stay a TS?

I think tonight’s 00z runs should hone in pretty good. That said, the EURO still appears to be adjusting, along with the rest of the guidance, so personally, I’m knocking off those eastern members anyway. Additionally, those eastern members are members that still steadily weaken the storm as it comes northward, which, in my opinion, is incorrect. Overall, I also think the EURO suite is too weak, which is partially why we continue to see it adjust. The other reason is because of the changes with the trough. As I’ve maintained, I think we see anywhere from a high-grade tropical storm to a mid-high grade category 1 storm.
Do you still feel a more west track is in play putting it near central or western LI or even further west as some of the GEFS show heading smack into NYC, even one into central jrsy.

100%

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:00 am

12z NAM looks to be coming in stronger with slightly better ridging in the western Atlantic even compared to 6z which was very west

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:03 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z hurricane models west

6z

Jinkies!!!
Cant ignore those tracks smack into NYC, wow, not many but lets see where the others to the east trend.

Keep in mind that the hurricane guidance hast consistently been on the eastern side of the multi-model ensemble. Seeing them come that far west AGAIN makes me think the 12z runs of the short-range and global guidance may get pretty ugly……

Was afraid you would say that. As much as I get excited about storms I do not want to lose power and if this was a strong cat 1 into the area could be weeks, and very bad for the shore with the full moon. Also NHC track has impacts from initial to exit for nearly 24 hrs. That is insane and any prolonged winds like that is going to be bad, I disagree with Frank that it isn't going to be potentially really bad, probably not catastrophic but I could see a lot worse than 60mph gusts in some places, mostly to the east but if he is strong enough he may have pretty symetrical windfield.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:04 am

Sanchize06 wrote:12z NAM looks to be coming in stronger with slightly better ridging in the western Atlantic even compared to 6z which was very west

My eyes are more drawn to stronger energy rounding the base of the trough in addition to a more retracted setup between the trough and Henri - should see a tighter hook here as the capture should be more efficient. Lets let it play out though.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:09 am

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z NAM looks to be coming in stronger with slightly better ridging in the western Atlantic even compared to 6z which was very west

My eyes are more drawn to stronger energy rounding the base of the trough in addition to a more retracted setup between the trough and Henri - should see a tighter hook here as the capture should be more efficient. Lets let it play out though.

Long range, but the 12z HRRR shows this by the look of it lol

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:11 am

Sanchize06 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z NAM looks to be coming in stronger with slightly better ridging in the western Atlantic even compared to 6z which was very west

My eyes are more drawn to stronger energy rounding the base of the trough in addition to a more retracted setup between the trough and Henri - should see a tighter hook here as the capture should be more efficient. Lets let it play out though.

Long range, but the 12z HRRR shows this by the look of it lol

Oh no…..ehh, screw that model - I never liked it anyway lmao

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:15 am

Looks to me like this should be west of 00z, not sure versus 06z. Might be about the same. The same trends are continuing aloft, though, which is incredible.

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:16 am

rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Might have to jump on The Long Road Out of Eden and take the exit for Hotel California for evacuation if Henri comes any further west lol

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:20 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Might have to jump on The Long Road Out of Eden and take the exit for Hotel California for evacuation if Henri comes any further west lol

Thank you, Scott, I was getting very upset that nobody saw what I did there aha

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:27 am

NAM actually came pretty far east, still a LI hit but 06z was more towards NYC. Probably still waffling.

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