2021 Tropical Season

Zhukov1945 wrote:Anyone have thoughts on the relative level of disorganization on Henri now and its ability (or lack thereof) to restore itself and strengthen (or not)?

Check a few pages back, somebody posted a little discussion from Twitter about this. If you still have questions about it, then follow up but that may answer your question sufficiently.

JackShephard wrote:Do you think the Hurricane watches will be dropped for Cape Cod? Heading up there tomorrow.

I do, if the track remains this west. However, the NHC just issued a Storm Surge Warning for the Cape which I believe will remain in place as astronomical high tides will produce coastal flooding well away from the center of Henri, especially to the east of it with a fetch off the Atlantic.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Im not done with yet Ray...lol  I still think my side of the argument is more correct.  Im at work and struggling to find the time to rebuttal.  But I will.  lol

I would expect nothing less!! Lmaoooo now, get back to saving Fluffy!!!  

I dont have time to further my argument tonight BUT take a listen to Levi's video.  
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/



Obv fast forward to the discussion on Henri, I believe it starts at about 2:15.  He seems to be 100% on my side with the point Im trying to make, and actually talks about it in the video.  And for the record I posted my argument at 1:17pm and he posted his video at 1:30pm and I do not have his number, so I didn't call him before hand lol

All our differences aside I REALLY appreciate your contributions.   Ive learned a ton from you over the last few yrs.  You did an absolutely phenomenal job at sniffing out the big picture with this.  You truly have a gift my friend.  

WE TRACK!!  

Oo I’ll definitely have a look a little later and report back!! Haha but no problem, man, duty calls! And I believe your thoughts are your own, but even if the timing was reversed and you watched his stuff, I know you wouldn’t just agree with him because he makes it sound good haha

Differences? Only difference I see is our opinion on this storm - we both love the weather, discussing it, and trying to forecast it, and that’s good enough for me

Thank you, Scott. Sincerely. But that’s a two-way street FOR SURE with the learning, and I ain’t counting any unhatched chickens yet; premature celebrations are always the worst lol besides, you and others on here have bested me with your collective fair share of events since we’ve all been tracking together haha

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GFS another slight tick west of 12z

Gahhh you beat me to it!! Haha

Haha GEFS about the same, but still a huge spread from NJ to east of Long Island

Wow everyone is going crazy long lines at the gas station the Home Depot dister

frank 638 wrote:Wow everyone is going crazy long lines at the gas station the Home Depot dister

And we have been ready for days...lol tx RB...I did my weekly shopping order early ..but the rest of the prep really I have learned from this pandemic...heres to hoping we don't have too much damage from this thing..
Sanchize-- I forgot we are neighbors..

frank 638 wrote:Wow everyone is going crazy long lines at the gas station the Home Depot dister

no one going crazy here and we live miles from each other.

Jman the Home Depot by the brunker blvd is crazy I am doing side work right now people are buying flashlights and batteries and so on

frank 638 wrote:Jman the Home Depot by the brunker blvd is crazy I am doing side work right now people are buying flashlights and batteries and so on

ugg i was gonna go the store this afternoon but im go wait til learly morning, worst case ill deal with what i have here.

So what I take from Levi video is that the track over NYC is a very real possibility out of 3. The weakening potential makes sense and i believe happened with bob. Levi also said winds could reach 100mph if he really gets going and it looks like Henri may be trying to get vertically stacked. Next 24 hrs are go b key and hopefully we can nail this track down to at least 2 of the tracks rather than 3.

Another interesting tidbit - overstated or accurate?

yikes 3km nam.

Zhukov1945 wrote:Another interesting tidbit - overstated or accurate?

this could be one the big players in the steering west, but due west? I will let rb or sroc comment on that cuz IMO that sounds unlikely.

is there any chance this storm shifts east and just gives western li/nyc area a regular rainy day as opposed to strong winds and flash flooding?

love storms, especially snow storms, and love tracking, but dont want power out, especially in summer when its hot outside.

hoping for the best

Ummm…

SoulSingMG wrote:Ummm…

well then hrrr welcome to rb's party, how does hrrr go out 48 hrs. tt only goes 18.

18z HWRF coming in more west and a bit stronger…

SoulSingMG wrote:18z HWRF coming in more west and a bit stronger…

Is it odd that the heavier/wider precipitation on this is on the west side?  Thought we'd seen a lot of the models where that stays on the east side...

Zhukov1945 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:18z HWRF coming in more west and a bit stronger…

Is it odd that the heavier/wider precipitation on this is on the west side?  Thought we'd seen a lot of the models where that stays on the east side...

Typically, the heaviest rain is actually on the western side while the strongest winds and worst storm surge are on the eastern side.

It reminds me of a water wheel. It scoops the water then tosses it from 12 to 7 position. Either Henri will hit us or New England which I believe the last direct hit in the Boston area was Hurricane Bob in 1991. I guess somebody is due. Is it still ticking NW?

Is it just me or does he look like he is aligning back up? I do not see the exposed LLC anymore. and man that covection, he could easily overperform imo

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

Well well gonna be a toe tapper

jmanley32 wrote:Is it just me or does he look like he is aligning back up? I do not see the exposed LLC anymore. and man that covection, he could easily overperform imo

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

Definitely looks a little better organized and I would not be surprised if it becomes minimal hurricane by 11pm update.

CT called a SOE.

https://portal.ct.gov/Office-of-the-Governor/News/Press-Releases/2021/08-2021/Governor-Lamont-Declaring-State-of-Emergency-in-Advance-of-Tropical-Storm-Henri

jmanley32 wrote:

Zhukov1945 wrote:Another interesting tidbit - overstated or accurate?

this could be one the big players in the steering west, but due west? I will let rb or sroc comment on that cuz IMO that sounds unlikely.

In my opinion, this is completely valid. The question becomes where/how/if it develops this way, and this is exclusively governed by the evolution of things beneath it. What sroc and I have been debating is a very large aspect of this entire evolution, and that is how we think the mid-levels will evolve, because this helps to govern the track and all of the dynamics associated with it.

Per my thinking, the above is perfectly plausible, and honestly, partially why I’m so worried about further westward corrections. That said, I’ve not attacked it from this specific/dynamical angle. But it makes physical sense if it evolves that way.

jmanley32 wrote:Is it just me or does he look like he is aligning back up? I do not see the exposed LLC anymore. and man that covection, he could easily overperform imo

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

The shear might be lessening from the look of it. Earlier during the day you could see the outer most cirrus bands of Henri converging southward towards the storm. Now they seem to be fanning outward which gives the cyclone proper ventilation.