2021 Tropical Season

jmanley32 wrote:

Zhukov1945 wrote:Another interesting tidbit - overstated or accurate?

this could be one the big players in the steering west, but due west? I will let rb or sroc comment on that cuz IMO that sounds unlikely.

In my opinion, this is completely valid. The question becomes where/how/if it develops this way, and this is exclusively governed by the evolution of things beneath it. What sroc and I have been debating is a very large aspect of this entire evolution, and that is how we think the mid-levels will evolve, because this helps to govern the track and all of the dynamics associated with it.

Per my thinking, the above is perfectly plausible, and honestly, partially why I’m so worried about further westward corrections. That said, I’ve not attacked it from this specific/dynamical angle. But it makes physical sense if it evolves that way.

jmanley32 wrote:Is it just me or does he look like he is aligning back up? I do not see the exposed LLC anymore. and man that covection, he could easily overperform imo

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

The shear might be lessening from the look of it. Earlier during the day you could see the outer most cirrus bands of Henri converging southward towards the storm. Now they seem to be fanning outward which gives the cyclone proper ventilation.

SoulSingMG wrote:

looks like came east a bit. having a hard time buying rb theory of a sharp turn toward nyc but levi said its possible in his video too so

0z suite should be interesting. Most models definitely went back east a bit at 18z

Sanchize06 wrote:0z suite should be interesting. Most models definitely went back east a bit at 18z

of course we know 18z often does wonky things.

recon found 79mph flight level winds, 995mb though rose one mb. i think 11pm will be minimal cane

From 33 n Rain
He's intensifying

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:0z suite should be interesting. Most models definitely went back east a bit at 18z

of course we know 18z often does wonky things.

Hopefully the 0z's will give us a pretty good idea on a consensus. Seems like we're getting there with the short ranges models going east a bit and earlier the globals came west.

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:0z suite should be interesting. Most models definitely went back east a bit at 18z

of course we know 18z often does wonky things.

Hopefully the 0z's will give us a pretty good idea on a consensus. Seems like we're getting there with the short ranges models going east a bit and earlier the globals came west.  

i dunno rb said earlier we may not know till the very last minute earlier. if that sharp west turn is go happen it prolly wont be realized until tomorrow.

NAM alot weaker almost 10mb last run at 12 hrs was 985, now 994mb. watch this end up falling apart and being nothing lol

jmanley32 wrote:NAM initialized a lot weaker almost 10mb last run at 12 hrs was 985, now 996mb. watch this end up falling apart and being nothing lol

Hahahaha

My gut is telling me it will be bad worse then most people will be expecting. Slow moving, the leaves in August. I’m actually going to put my pool cover on the pool tomorrow.

All the convection is to the east and south of the center, center is almost still completely exposed. seems be get shear coming from west now maybe?

Scullybutcher wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:NAM initialized a lot weaker almost 10mb last run at 12 hrs was 985, now 996mb. watch this end up falling apart and being nothing lol

Hahahaha

My gut is telling me it will be bad worse then most people will be expecting. Slow moving, the leaves in August. I’m actually going to put my pool cover on the pool tomorrow.

yeah i was kidding, i expect it will be bad maybe worse than models are showing, as has been stated all along the models have been crapola this yr. this may be a nowcast which is not fun like a snowstorm.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:0z suite should be interesting. Most models definitely went back east a bit at 18z

of course we know 18z often does wonky things.

Hopefully the 0z's will give us a pretty good idea on a consensus. Seems like we're getting there with the short ranges models going east a bit and earlier the globals came west.  

i dunno rb said earlier we may not know till the very last minute earlier.  if that sharp west turn is go happen it prolly wont be realized until tomorrow.

Yeah we need to see how much this will strengthen tonight, that could be a big difference tomorrow. It's taken it's time to strengthen so far and that could be part of the reason we're seeing these runs go more east. The 18z NAM was fairly east and this run looks similar, if not further east

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:0z suite should be interesting. Most models definitely went back east a bit at 18z

of course we know 18z often does wonky things.

Hopefully the 0z's will give us a pretty good idea on a consensus. Seems like we're getting there with the short ranges models going east a bit and earlier the globals came west.  

i dunno rb said earlier we may not know till the very last minute earlier.  if that sharp west turn is go happen it prolly wont be realized until tomorrow.

Yeah we need to see how much this will strengthen tonight, that could be a big difference tomorrow. It's taken it's time to strengthen so far and that could be part of the reason we're seeing these runs go more east. The 18z NAM was fairly east and this run looks similar, if not further east

its possible the models are reading this easterly track because of intensity and once he intensifys if he does the track may change back west, in fact i'd expect nothing less from these useless models.

yup nam is def east of 18z at hr 24.

0z NAM is way east. The weaker solutions were always going to be on the eastern side and you can see from the NAM it's east from hr 0, doesn't strengthen very much at all and if it's that far east on approach, you aren't going to see it come back. The wild card tonight is can it strengthen rapidly for a period of time

Still not a hurricane at the 11pm advisory

And the cone moves slightly west, go figure lol

jmanley32 wrote:Yes but nhs says he is intensifying and new warnings went up. Not sure where and new cone isn't in yet.

Well it'll be approaching the gulf stream toward morning, so these next 12-16 hours could be go time, if it's going to strengthen before getting into cooler water

Sanchize06 wrote:And the cone moves slightly west, go figure lol

that's actually pretty Sig change on cone. Now ts warnings along jrsy shore. I think NYC will be in hurricane warning soon.

rgem is also far east and 10mb weaker. 1000mb wow wth lol

11pm NHC update: FURTHER shift to the west in track with Tropical Storm Warnings now up for the city and Monmouth & Nassau counties…

SoulSingMG wrote:11pm NHC update: FURTHER shift to the west in track with Tropical Storm Warnings now up for the city and Monmouth & Nassau counties…

with that just to include jrsy shore in TS warning i would thought hurricane warning would been into NYC, i still think it is maybe morning.

I don’t get it. What does the NHC see that would warrant a shift west with the cone?

nutleyblizzard wrote:I don’t get it. What does the NHC see that would warrant a shift west with the cone?

pfffff who knows, maybe they are go by recon data and not the models.