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2021 Tropical Season

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:09 am

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 3 Img_2025
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 3 Img_2026
Storms last night skirting past us..was a cool show


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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:10 am

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Current view
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Post by New Yorker 234 Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:19 am

Good morning. The Weather Channel says tropical storm conditions are possible here in NYC overnight yet there is no tropical storm watch/warning for NYC. Why is that?

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:54 am

@New Yorker 234 wrote:Good morning. The Weather Channel says tropical storm conditions are possible here in NYC overnight yet there is no tropical storm watch/warning for NYC. Why is that?

Honestly its likely a matter of semantics, meaning there is a very specific criteria that needs to be met to be placed in a warning.  I believe its sustained trop force winds expected within 24 or 36hrs I believe.  I dont recall how long of a duration defines sustained.  Sustained being the operative word regarding warning criteria though.  That said areas immediately west of the warning areas, like NYC/Westchester etc, can absolutely still get Trop storm force winds at times, esp under heavy bands.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:01 am

Seems to me like this is more of a flood threat for western LI into NW NJ and SNY. Wind threat seems low. One thing we will have to watch out for is a favorable environment for quick tornado spin ups.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:19 pm

@aiannone wrote:Seems to me like this is more of a flood threat for western LI into NW NJ and SNY. Wind threat seems low. One thing we will have to watch out for is a favorable environment for quick tornado spin ups.
yeah last night there was no chance for tornadoes. Now they are saying it's possible. She's still so far south I don't see how she gets here as soon as predicted.
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Post by Vinnydula Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:50 pm

Never seen that much rain come down for that long ☔☔
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:39 pm

Like midnight here. Saw report of a.5 inch hail in Bergen?! Anyone got in that? Go be a wild night.
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:10 pm

The strongest winds from Elsa are most likely to occur late tonight and Friday morning over Long Island and coastal sections of New Jersey and Connecticut, where the Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. Sustained winds could be between 40-50mph with gusts up to near 60mph for at least a few hours, as Elsa’s center passes nearby. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Around New York City, winds are likely to be between 20-30mph with some gusts to up to near 40mph possible.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 3 Hrrr-n10


2-4" of Rain

From Mike Mostwill and 33 & RAIN

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:01 pm

@amugs wrote:The strongest winds from Elsa are most likely to occur late tonight and Friday morning over Long Island and coastal sections of New Jersey and Connecticut, where the Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. Sustained winds could be between 40-50mph with gusts up to near 60mph for at least a few hours, as Elsa’s center passes nearby. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Around New York City, winds are likely to be between 20-30mph with some gusts to up to near 40mph possible.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 3 Hrrr-n10


2-4" of Rain

From Mike Mostwill and 33 & RAIN
umm if some of those spots of rain verify 7 to 10 plus....yikes. She intensified to 50mph as of 5. I could see her being a 60mph may be 70mph TS potentially.
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Post by amugs Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:38 pm

YIKES!!


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Post by amugs Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:10 am

If true YIKKESSSS!!


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Post by billg315 Sun Aug 01, 2021 2:21 pm

Tropics look very quiet for the next few days. Still forecast to get somewhat active later in August and September, but nothing brewing right now.
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 01, 2021 7:52 pm

MJO phase 2 and 3 will kick in and this will take off. Quiet before the storms.


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Post by sroc4 Sun Aug 08, 2021 7:01 pm

We've got some color.


 2021 Tropical Season - Page 3 Two_atl_2d0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:16 pm

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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:11 pm


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:13 pm

I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:14 pm

Potent* cold front, not potential lol can’t edit for some reason.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:26 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.
Am I reading correctly that you are concerned for a tropical threat up this way in 8-10 day period? That would have to be the next one in the atlantic or something we have not seen off the coast develop yet.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:10 am

@rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.


Yes sir.  Like the great JB always says....Ridge over troubled waters.  This looks really interesting.  The EC def needs to monitor this as we head into next week.  Jon its the area east of the Lesser Antilles around 50W that Im looking at.  

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 3 Aug_1810

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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:56 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.
Am I reading correctly that you are concerned for a tropical threat up this way in 8-10 day period?  That would have to be the next one in the atlantic or something we have not seen off the coast develop yet.

Yes, Jman. But before I jump on any bandwagon I want to sit and really take a look for a couple reasons: 1) I’ve not forecasted since about the end of February for that massive nor’easter (which I’m still sour over missing :p) and 2) these things are agonizingly fickle, and with how bad I know the modeling has been with storms in other parts of the world all year, it just adds to the complications.

I’ll probably take a look tomorrow night or Sunday before work and provide some further details, but it looks like the modeling has shifted toward more a true tropical entity being the threat instead of a transitioning entity further north, at least for now.

The biggest thing to focus on IMO is the evolution of the eastern Canadian ridging within the context of the surrounding mid-latitude pattern evolution (i.e. do we see the body of that ridge try to bleed southward (instead of eastward) over the western Atlantic, thereby preventing my idea entirely and forcing anything tropical further southwest? Or, is the southward bleeding unsuccessful, which would leave both options on the table? Forget operational models, even when we are within a few days; trust me, they’ve been AWFUL this year with tropics. Ensembles only, look at the drivers (overall pattern), and the storms will follow.

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Post by amugs Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:06 pm

Rb this pattern as JB has been harping on is what Eric Webb is stating as well. This pattern has given teh EC and NE some humdinger storms in its time.


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Post by dkodgis Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:42 pm

So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better, let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:47 pm

@dkodgis wrote:So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better,  let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?
Possibly, who knows only TD 7 does. Do not stop it at just a rain potential do not forget how destructive Isiahs was last summer. Not saying anything is going to happen but the conditions are right for a potential real tropical system to come up the coast. Will be interesting to watch to see if our pros and JB may be onto something.
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