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2021 Tropical Season

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:37 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys we are on vacation on our boat for 3 weeks..in CT...do you think Elsa could effect us..we will be in Rhode Island the end of the week??

Hey Weathermom.  There is def a chance for both direct and/or indirect effects from Elsa as we head into the end of the week and weekend.  There is a trough sweeping in as Elsa head up towards the Carolina's, so timing and positioning will determine the details.  Even if Elsa stays south and us as it heads OTS the cold frontal boundary will likely bring us gusty unsettled weather.   Stay tuned.

Hey Weathermom. It’s def looking more and more likely that traveling on Friday is not the best move. Whether we see tropical storm force watches or warnings or not will be irrelevant. It’s going to blow. Where ever you end up stay safe and make sure those spring lines are the right length.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:39 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys we are on vacation on our boat for 3 weeks..in CT...do you think Elsa could effect us..we will be in Rhode Island the end of the week??

Hey Weathermom.  There is def a chance for both direct and/or indirect effects from Elsa as we head into the end of the week and weekend.  There is a trough sweeping in as Elsa head up towards the Carolina's, so timing and positioning will determine the details.  Even if Elsa stays south and us as it heads OTS the cold frontal boundary will likely bring us gusty unsettled weather.   Stay tuned.

Hey Weathermom. It’s def looking more and more likely that traveling on Friday is not the best move. Whether we see tropical storm force watches or warnings or not will be irrelevant.  It’s going to blow. Where ever you end up stay safe and make sure those spring lines are the right length.
thanks...we will be in Watch Hill we were supposed to travel Friday ..but we have been watching and will be tied up for sure!! Lots of adventures on this trip!..why not add a tropical storm! Will keep you posted...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:14 am

The cone shifted west even further has 2 to 4 rain winds yet to be seen if a issue I wouldn't be surprised to see TS watches up today or tomorrow. Hang in there weathermom it looks like go b quick pass on Friday morning and a decent weekend.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:27 am

TS watches issued up to just south of Staten Island. Now the nhc has center directly over NYC on Friday morning. I presume watches will eventually go up all way to Cape Cod. Shouldn't be too bad unless she regains more than is predicted. 2 to 4 inches or rain and gusts to 40mph we can handle. Sorry to those on boats though.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:56 am

Euro is a little stronger and more tucked into the coast. Would bring heavy rain and gusty winds to most of the area. GFS seems to keep the heavy rains just offshore maybe clipping Ocean and Monmouth counties and eastern Long Island. Either way doesn't look too bad for the area, but certainly could be some typical coastal flooding from the onshore flow. Should be cleared out by Friday afternoon/evening which is good.
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Post by billg315 Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:58 am

NAM is closer to the Euro solution with more rain onshore.
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:15 pm

I am on Wildwood till Saturday.
Been following updates and The Bermuda Ridge is gonna press here and interact with the front. Not a good set up. I am Hu Keri g down on the 4th floor of our oceanside hotel.
Will take videos to share.
Maps for those interested. She gonna whack us really good peeps = prepare for whatever u need to do.
Wind Gusts likely I say.
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 16256610

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:23 pm

@amugs wrote:I am on Wildwood till Saturday.
Been following updates and The Bermuda Ridge is gonna press here and interact with the front. Not a good set up. I am Hu Keri g down on the 4th floor of our oceanside hotel.
Will take videos to share.
Maps for those interested. She gonna whack us really good peeps = prepare for whatever u need to do.
Wind Gusts likely I say.
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 16256610
don't we usually think these are overdone? 50 to 60 mph imby no good. What is the duration approx? Is she going to expand? Right now tiny. 80 to 90mph on LI? I guess that's the combo? Is this kind of like the setup we had with isiais last summer? When do you think nhc pulls the watches warnings for area?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:26 pm

@billg315 wrote:Euro is a little stronger and more tucked into the coast. Would bring heavy rain and gusty winds to most of the area. GFS seems to keep the heavy rains just offshore maybe clipping Ocean and Monmouth counties and eastern Long Island. Either way doesn't look too bad for the area, but certainly could be some typical coastal flooding from the onshore flow. Should be cleared out by Friday afternoon/evening which is good.

I dont think 12z GFS has much of a clue as it initialized Elsa at 1008mb.  As of the latest recon it has been hovering between 1000-1002mb overnight and this am.  Euro has been much better at initalization making me think its soln is more likely.  GFS has it come off the NJ coast as a 1009 mb Low vs the euro has it in the low 990's.  A HUGE difference.  If euro is correct wind impacts will be more significant area wide, but esp for eastern half of LI and eastward; esp if we get 2"+ of rain.  

Looking at 500 the interaction with the mean trough has it try and tilt neutral to slt neg which will allow for that strengthening as it undergoes the tropical to subtropical transition.

Well see.  So far the euro soln is way more plausible IMHO

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jul 07, 2021 2:14 pm

Those winds better not verify...,😬😬😳😳
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:03 pm

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 Output_Cr2wxq.gif.164651a78382907eac7021c3175346f4

Compliments of 33& Rain


Last edited by amugs on Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:02 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 07, 2021 5:03 pm

Coast gets raked

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:04 pm

@amugs wrote:Coast gets raked
wow 989 just off NYC that's a potential hurricane no? What causes that rapid intensification?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:30 pm

@amugs wrote: 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 Output_Cr2wxq.gif.164651a78382907eac7021c3175346f4
mugs one of those is 00z other 12z. What are you showing here?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:13 pm

Surprised tgat NYC and southern Westchester didn't get a TS watch maybe the majority of issues is on right flank? I still think more the area goes up and ts warnings tomorrow at least for the areas under watches now. Gotta see if she makes it across land and as we know track can change.
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Surprised tgat NYC and southern Westchester didn't get a TS watch maybe the majority of issues is on right flank? I still think more the area goes up and ts warnings tomorrow at least for the areas under watches now. Gotta see if she makes it across land and as we know track can change.
ur right about that all of Long Island is under a tropical storm watch .I guess by tomorrow we all have a warning

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:02 pm

Showing that it slowed down a bit.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:51 pm

@amugs wrote:Showing that it slowed down a bit.
What does that mean?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:27 am

@frank 638 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Surprised tgat NYC and southern Westchester didn't get a TS watch maybe the majority of issues is on right flank? I still think more the area goes up and ts warnings tomorrow at least for the areas under watches now. Gotta see if she makes it across land and as we know track can change.
ur right about that all of Long Island is under a tropical storm watch .I guess by tomorrow we all have a warning
nope guess they decided to keep the warning to the east of NYC. Though the heaviest rain is supposed to be north and west of NYC. Any change in track of course will change things. If she's slowed down that's not good longer duration and potential to regain if gets over water
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:45 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@amugs wrote:Showing that it slowed down a bit.
What does that mean?

In reality probably nothing major except for subtle changes in timing. Looks like winds begin to pick up after about 8pm tonight and into the overnight.  Rain from Elsa looks like it begins to move in around Midnight from SW to NE with the heaviest rains coming through early Friday.    

As the euro has been stating for some time, although has backed off as to how much, Elsa looks to intensify a little as she heads NE. As you can see the NWS has issued Trop Storm warnings along the coast as a result.  

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 111936_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Intensification will have nothing to do with any extra time over water, but rather its interactions with the trough that is capturing it and is ultimately what is steering her NE up and out by Friday afternoon.  

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 G16_co11
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 Neg_ti10


Recall many a discussion during winter time when we talk about the trough axis tilting negative leading to a bombing winter system.  When the trough axis tilts negative this adds energy into a system strengthening it.  Elsa is no longer a truly tropical system anymore.  As she continues her journey NE she goes from a warm core system, being driven by the warm waters beneath her while over open waters, into a cold core system as she is picked up by and interacts with the trough.   This transition will shift the axis of heaviest rainfall from the E/NE quadrants to the N/NW quadrant of the center.

In the end This likely wont have major impacts area wide, but certainly with tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rain there will certainly be some downed trees/tree limbs, isolated power outages, minor coastal flooding on the east side of the center, and potential for flooding where the heaviest rainfall amts occur.  

Its been a relatively boring spring so far so this was fun to track.   Stay safe everyone.  Hope all is well.  What a Face

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:50 am

Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:27 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Those winds better not verify...,😬😬😳😳
the warning doesn't have gusts anywhere close to that. They may be being cautious but we are 24 hrs or less away so if those winds were to verify without notice that would not be good. I'm hoping to see more than a soaking rain but nothing damaging don't need lose power but all the wind is to east of center so I think that puts NYC just barely to the West but I still thing TS warnings could go up there purely for the rain. We will see. If nothing else as Scott said tracking has been fun.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:27 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?

NHCs classification has changed since Sandy. There was the big debate over whether she was a hurricane or not. If you recall NHC at some point tried to declassify her as such because of her interactions with the trough that reaped her in. Now they go more by winds. People are stupid apparently so if you tell them tropical storm they react; whereas, if you say no longer a tropical storm, even though tropical storm force winds are present, people don’t react.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:36 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Scott seems nhc is keeping her tropical all the way up and not subtropical. So above your saying you disagree with them?

NHCs classification has changed since Sandy. There was the big debate over whether she was a hurricane or not. If you recall NHC at some point tried to declassify her as such because of her interactions with the trough that reaped her in. Now they go more by winds. People are stupid apparently so if you tell them tropical storm they react; whereas, if you say no longer a tropical storm, even though tropical storm force winds are present, people don’t react.

Actually upon closer inspection she does stay warm core. Until she gets past us. That said the reason for strengthening still applies. Negative tilt to the trough.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 2 Temp10

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:05 am

Thank you for the updates and explaination..we are headed back to Mystic to tuck in for the next 2 days..only an 1.5 hours aways .Nice day so far. Had some interesting storms surround us last night at sunset
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