Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:47 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:VERY active out there. Torrential tropical downpours headed our way for Wed into Thursday with the heaviest axis of QPF still not quite locked in yet. The footage coming in from LA is already mind blowing. As daylight emerges this morning the true devastation will be further revealed.

That new African wave needs to be watched. That’s the potential trouble maker that I’m referencing in my previous post.

Brother Rb, I said watch the second week of September 10thish to 16thish my man a while ago....after reading Farmers Almanac and looking at the pattern evolution- MJO, Africa, Arctic/PAC N regions.

by **rb924119** Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:04 am

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:VERY active out there. Torrential tropical downpours headed our way for Wed into Thursday with the heaviest axis of QPF still not quite locked in yet. The footage coming in from LA is already mind blowing. As daylight emerges this morning the true devastation will be further revealed.

That new African wave needs to be watched. That’s the potential trouble maker that I’m referencing in my previous post.

Brother Rb, I said watch the second week of September 10thish to 16thish my man a while ago....after reading Farmers Almanac and looking at the pattern evolution- MJO, Africa, Arctic/PAC N regions.

Indeed you did, mugsy - I didn’t forget or miss that post Wink

I was actually going to highlight that post when I write my discussion lol

I have to admit, though, you lost a little street cred when you mentioned the farmer’s almanac :p jk jk

by **essexcountypete** Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:40 am

dkodgis wrote:Did those people make it on Grand Isle? Anyone know?

No word from Grand Isle since yesterday.

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:44 am

This is insane. https://t.co/CeZGmJqxaG
— Doc V (@MJVentrice) August 30, 2021

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:51 am

https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-orleans-is-entirely-without-power-911-service-due-to-hurricane-ida-officials_3971363.html?utm_source=newsnoe&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=breaking-2021-08-30-1&est=nZ7mhXP%2BDgvZej49GYP3wxCfc%2BvLdRmcmvCAQZ7QumZIhH9P50o7jVTUWthYuAI%3D

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:11 pm

amugs wrote:https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-orleans-is-entirely-without-power-911-service-due-to-hurricane-ida-officials_3971363.html?utm_source=newsnoe&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=breaking-2021-08-30-1&est=nZ7mhXP%2BDgvZej49GYP3wxCfc%2BvLdRmcmvCAQZ7QumZIhH9P50o7jVTUWthYuAI%3D

how aweful, cannot even get help wow.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Man Twitter is filled with devastating videos from NOLA and other parts of LA. God bless those people and pray for a speedy recovery. I haven’t read anything on loss of life. Hopefully that’s the case.

Our area will deal with remnants Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS paints heaviest axis directly over our area. Other models keep the heaviest axis a bit more north. Either way it’s going to pour.

Sadly Frank one fatality reported from a tree falling on a house, with no 911 service I do not think we will know if there is a death toll of a higher amount (lets hope not) until 911 service is restored. Yeah we are gonna see some major flooding if her remnants track over the area, looks like it could get fairly breezy too. 4-6 inches on top of Henri no good.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:15 pm

rb924119 wrote:I know there’s much to deal with in the world of weather right now both here and elsewhere, but the Day 12-17 period has my feathers ruffled for the possibility of another, more substantial tropical threat for the Eastern/Northeastern CONUS. EXCRUCIATINGLY COMPLEX evolution, and one that certainly needs to be analyzed intricately before I can comment further, but it definitely has my attention. I will be providing a deeper discussion of what *could* evolve, but just keep it in the backs of your minds as an upcoming topic of discussion lol

I also still have yet to provide my final discussion of Henri, but fear not; for that too will be coming!

Does not surprise me in the least, this year has been hyper to say the least. Will check in on that from time to time. You did well with Henri far out so I have to put some stance in the potential.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:53 pm

Flash Flood Watches are now up from DC to Philly to NYC and for good measure. Our saturated grounds ain’t ready for this…

by **rb924119** Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:44 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Flash Flood Watches are now up from DC to Philly to NYC and for good measure. Our saturated grounds ain’t ready for this…

What the heck did the Euro do; drop a nuke??? Jinkies!!

Also, if anybody knows a Noah with an ark, now would probably be a good time to ask him to borrow it lol

by **sroc4** Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Flash Flood Watches are now up from DC to Philly to NYC and for good measure. Our saturated grounds ain’t ready for this…

What the heck did the Euro do; drop a nuke??? Jinkies!!

Also, if anybody knows a Noah with an ark, now would probably be a good time to ask him to borrow it lol

Compliments of tropical moisture and enhanced upper level divergence via some nice upper level jet dynamics

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:02 pm

River flooding as well Friday.

Winds to so well have some power outages due to the saturated soil as well from Henri.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Flash Flood Watches are now up from DC to Philly to NYC and for good measure. Our saturated grounds ain’t ready for this…

What the heck did the Euro do; drop a nuke??? Jinkies!!

Also, if anybody knows a Noah with an ark, now would probably be a good time to ask him to borrow it lol

Appears so wowwee, look at that 10-12 over PA, guess it loses some steam once reachs our area? Not that i really wanna see 10-12 inches rain 4-8 is more than enough and yeah mugs I noticed there will be some gusty winds, nothing to write home about but the ground is so saturated with all this rain coming wont take much to up root some shallow rooted trees. rb interested to see ur predictions with that system coming off africa, so you think its possible could pose a even bigger threat than Henri in terms of intensity, track what? I know too soon lol, 16 days is a long ways off.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:09 pm

amugs wrote:River flooding as well Friday.

Winds to so well have some power outages due to the saturated soil as well from Henri.

Why friday? isnt this coming wed/thurs? or just from water continuing to funnel down rivers? Yeah could see some gusty winds especially in convective areas which I think we see a lot of, is severe wx possible?

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:13 pm

Euro has a 996mb low exiting the midatlantic, so thats probably why its showing more intense rain and wind, anyone have the wing gusts for the area during the rain?

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:38 pm

3km nam is downright scary for rain and some wind, has PA getting 12-15 inches of rain!! Barely started here 60 hrs out and already put down 2-4. extrapolated out it would be a lot, but PA looks to be the bullseye.

by **phil155** Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:3km nam is downright scary for rain and some wind, has PA getting 12-15 inches of rain!! Barely started here 60 hrs out and already put down 2-4. extrapolated out it would be a lot, but PA looks to be the bullseye.

Look to my very amateur eye as though here in nj the heaviest rainfall totals should occur in the northern part of the state.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:57 pm

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:3km nam is downright scary for rain and some wind, has PA getting 12-15 inches of rain!! Barely started here 60 hrs out and already put down 2-4. extrapolated out it would be a lot, but PA looks to be the bullseye.

Look to my very amateur eye as though here in nj the heaviest rainfall totals should occur in the northern part of the state.

likely yes, the northern half of NJ into tristate and CT, the further south you go the less rain. The CMC is only model keeping remnants of ida suppressed way south.

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:15 pm

Houston we have a problem if this verifies!!
From Tomer Burg

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:River flooding as well Friday.

Winds to so well have some power outages due to the saturated soil as well from Henri.
Why friday? isnt this coming wed/thurs? or just from water continuing to funnel down rivers? Yeah could see some gusty winds especially in convective areas which I think we see a lot of, is severe wx possible?

Rivers crest after the storm. That's why I said such

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:20 pm

amugs wrote:Houston we have a problem if this verifies!!

Holy smokes....50 mph gusts and 10-14 inches possible!!! Umm this would be pretty devastating for the area, not like down NOLA but still we cannot handle this.

by **amugs** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:22 pm

JMAN cut the winds by about 25% but still if we get the right atmospheric inversion and mixing these winds could verify cut by about 10%

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:23 pm

amugs wrote:JMAN cut the winds by about 25% but still if we get the right atmospheric inversion and mixing these winds could verify cut by about 10%

Yeah I agree, Euro always overdoes the winds, ALWAYS. But I think there will be a lot of convection and inversion with this so the potential is there. That rain is majorly concerning 4+, ehh we can handle it would cause flooding but 10-14 ummmm.... With the saturation and the potential for a historic 10-14 inches of rain it wont even require wind to uproot trees. 30-35mph gusts would do it.

by **rb924119** Mon Aug 30, 2021 9:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Flash Flood Watches are now up from DC to Philly to NYC and for good measure. Our saturated grounds ain’t ready for this…

What the heck did the Euro do; drop a nuke??? Jinkies!!

Also, if anybody knows a Noah with an ark, now would probably be a good time to ask him to borrow it lol
Appears so wowwee, look at that 10-12 over PA, guess it loses some steam once reachs our area? Not that i really wanna see 10-12 inches rain 4-8 is more than enough and yeah mugs I noticed there will be some gusty winds, nothing to write home about but the ground is so saturated with all this rain coming wont take much to up root some shallow rooted trees. rb interested to see ur predictions with that system coming off africa, so you think its possible could pose a even bigger threat than Henri in terms of intensity, track what? I know too soon lol, 16 days is a long ways off.

Can’t really comment on this yet with any certainty, but at first glance, both are in play.

Also, regarding Ida’s wind threat, I would assume that the Euro is painting those winds because it’s registering actual convection instead of just heavy rainfall. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong, though, because I’ve not looked, and I can’t look right now. If convection is present, like thunderstorms, then those wind maps would be a bit more reasonable, but I’m not sure of the convective component. Maybe sroc can further expand on this? His post about the jet streak was a good start here……

by **dkodgis** Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:36 am

Oh say kids, what do we have incoming tomorrow?

5-6 inches?

by **aiannone** Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:10 am

by **sroc4** Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:44 am

dkodgis wrote:Oh say kids, what do we have incoming tomorrow?

5-6 inches?

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