Re: October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread

[aiannone]

Low temps looks like they might be colder than expected tonight here on LI. NWS expects winds to keep temperatures milder, but winds have almost completely died here on the north shore of LI and temp is already down to 47

Agreed, calm winds here also. Down to 45 with a foretasted low of 39. Probably end up somewhere around 34-35 degrees, a degree or two colder than last night. NWS might be way to high on this one.

Yupp down to 44 now. Mainly a calm wind with gusts to around 3mph at times.

[amugs]

Got down to 32* last night - first freeze of hopefully many for the upcoming winter and late fall season!! Dew point got down to 22*! BRRRRRRR! Tonight upper 20's??

Is Halloween going to be dry - talk of a GLC system?

[sroc4]

Got down to 32* last night - first  freeze of hopefully many for the upcoming winter and late fall season!! Dew point got down to 22*! BRRRRRRR! Tonight upper 20's??

Is Halloween going to be dry - talk of a GLC system?

General trend so far seems to have the bulk of the precip hold off until late Thurs eve into early Friday.  The euro seems to still have precip that may affect trick or treaters on thurs, but last nights run was alot dryer compared to yest 12z run.  Bottom line is individual model runs, and significant differences regarding timing and intensity between the models still exist.  My prelim thoughts would be that for the most part, if not all of Thurs will be dry for trick or treating.

[amugs]

Thanks Roc and we will know more as we get closer - I would hate to have all this candy left over for the third year in a row if it does indeed rain on Halloween!

[Frank_Wx]

Halloween forecast looks pretty gloomy right now. I would say rain is a good bet along a warm front, with a passing cold front carrying over into November 1st. Rain and temps in the 40's/50's would be my early forecast for Halloween. Meanwhile, parts of the southeast and southern plains could see some nasty severe weather next week.

[sroc4]

Yeah upon further review of today's 12z's the warm front out ahead of the GLC pushes north into the area creating damp conditions on thrus. That being said i'm not sold on the timing of the front lifting that far north just yet. We shall see by Monday morn

[amugs]

I hate GLC's dark, damp and gloomy especially if they linger - uugghhh!!

Okay, this is what a kid (not  a kid anymore but a young man I taught and coached back in the 1990's sent me about Nov signal - do not know what to make of this at this point - interpretation anyone?? We will be warmer in Nov while the Pacific will be....
I am still trying to learn the lingo and what the tech terms mean

Mugs

As the ESRL maps keep updating, it looks like the dominant blocking this month will end up being
over the EPO region near Alaska. The stronger PV development near the Atlantic side over the 
coming week will knock down the higher than normal heights there to some extent on the 
monthly average. So we may be looking at a winter signal that may end up favoring the 
EPO region for blocking while the Atlantic would see less blocking overall. The free maps
that JB has posting seem to match this idea. But as always, we'll have to see how things actually
progress.
 

 

[Dunnzoo]

Thanks Roc and we will know more as we get closer - I would hate to have all this candy left over for the third year in a row if it does indeed rain on Halloween!

Mugs, you work in a school...bring it to work! lol I haven't bought candy yet...think there's any left?

[amugs]

Do you remember our last Governor  who is now serving time for bringing a billion dollar company to it s knee's - Corzine?? He passed a law that prohibits us from bringing in or selling such foods in schools!!  If a kid tells my job could be on the line as crazy as this might sound - with the teacher lover Gov. Christie especially (sorry to get political here)!!

I'll just spread the wealth amongst the children in the neighborhood and soccer teams I coach - you know a half time snack!

[HectorO]

 Halloween isn't what is was when I was growing up, or when "we" were growing up. Right after labor day, stores go right to Christmas. I like all the holidays and try to enjoy them as they approach. Thanksgiving is one of my favorite. For some reason my computer at work is acting weird. But some maps I was looking at earlier also shows that thanksgiving could be both very cold and wet. Maybe some very cold rain. Glad I've been to the Macy's parade. From here on out I enjoy the smell of food and relaxing from home. But lets save that for the November thread.

[Frank_Wx]

@Mugs- impressive stuff! You seem to be learning a lot when it comes to this weather stuff \

And yes, there are definite signs of the returning EPO ridge in the north Pac. thanks to the recurving typhoons in the western Pacific.

[docstox12]

Do you remember our last Governor  who is now serving time for bringing a billion dollar company to it s knee's - Corzine?? He passed a law that prohibits us from bringing in or selling such foods in schools!!  If a kid tells my job could be on the line as crazy as this might sound - with the teacher lover Gov. Christie especially (sorry to get political here)!!

I'll just spread the wealth amongst the children in the neighborhood and soccer teams I coach - you know a half time snack!

LOL, the nanny state at it's best telling you how to run every aspect of your life because they are oh so smart and you are oh so dumb.

All kidding aside, I avoid the candy issue by giving the kids money.Guess it will be a dollar bill per kid with inflation these days.A dollar bill is worth less than a quarter was years ago anyway.

We really need the rain but hoping it does not arrive Thursday night to rain on the kids parade.They need all the fun they can get as kids.

[sroc4]

35* out here on LI. OOO Baby.

[HeresL]

28 degrees in NWNJ right now.... The skis are ready, just need some white stuff!

[Quietace]

30 here right now at my house with a low of 29. 36 at the beach. Haven't felt a chill like this in the air in a while!

[Dunnzoo]

28.6* in Westwood overnight! Glad I'm in Texas!

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty sure it got down to 30 here last night! Frost everywhere.

[Frank_Wx]

Today is an example of a perfect weather day. Not unbearably cold. Rather comfortable.

[Frank_Wx]

Winds gusting between 20-30 mph today

[HectorO]

Today is an example of a perfect weather day. Not unbearably cold. Rather comfortable.

Great day indeed. Went hiking up through Campgaw mountain in Mahwah. Pretty chilly when your in the woods and the wind is blowing. Got to see some deer and turkey, no bears yet. Next Week, Thursdayish, looks to be getting warm.

[Dunnzoo]

80* in Houston, on my way home tomorrow, but with a chance of thunderstorms around flight time, maybe I will get to stay in the warmth an extra day ;-)

[aiannone]

Got down to 29 here in Saint James, LI. Frost everywhere! Growing season has ended at my house. All plants are dead.

[amugs]

It's really impressive to still be in the top ten driest months at Central Park through the 27th with .30" Check out this table! Aug 2011 - Irene added tremendously to the almost 19"
 

[aiannone]

Down to 44* here already on the island. Probably going to be colder than forecasted again. Forecast low is 40.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

We've been below freezing every morning for the last week. 26 is our closest morning so far. This should finish off the lawn until next spring, which as always I hope will be late next year.

[Frank_Wx]

Please be alert of the winds tonight into tomorrow. At the 850mb level, winds will be gusting around 60 mph. Some of that may get down into the surface, especially along coastal NJ and Long Island. Gusts should definitely reach 35-40 mph region wide. Tie down Halloween decorations and other loose objects outside.

[Frank_Wx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
312 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

CTZ007-011-NYZ078-080-010400-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0002.131101T0900Z-131101T1900Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.131101T1000Z-131101T2000Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
312 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONG WINDS
MAY ALSO MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

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