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Long Range Discussion 22.0

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:09 pm

@amugs wrote:

We shall see but interesting how it was cutter city two days ago and last night 18Z runs it started to shift these SE on BOTH ENS and OP runs. Only 6 days away LOL!

Up close views:
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 FFXXXtdWYAMAgnk?format=jpg&name=medium

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30

Smoke City for LI! IF IT VERIFIES!!
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31

Endless enthusiasm…..like a kid on Christmas, and I love it haha

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:32 pm

Rb someone has to rally the troops and get them ready for what might be.!!
Rayno - I'll take the middle track for $800 Bernie!!


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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:36 pm

Unfort until proven otherwise I agreee with Heehaw, Matty Ice, and Ray ray. Not too much to add. There just isnt a mechanism to prevent this thing from cutting IMO. The PAC side of things is just awful

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:05 pm

Yes. The PAC has been bad for several years. Consistent fast flow knocking down any chance of sustained west coast ridging. I think second week of December a possible phase 7 MJO could help facilitate a transient -EPO and maybe dump some cold air to the east coast. But how long until it gets beaten back? The MJO in phase 7 isn't stellar for winter weather in December but it's better than phase 6. Others have talked about the disruption of polar vortex, but that is a high risk/reward proposition. It could flip us to sustained -AO but it could also do the reverse if gets displaced in the wrong area. The only thing I'm confident on is if we don't get the favorable arctic oscillation then this winter will suck in a big way based on the PAC performance.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:39 pm

Saturdays Clipper can bring us some more snow showers Saturday into Sunday peeps.

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:18 am

From the Legend Jim Witt's Winter Forecast - he and Mr. G his buddy.

https://pix11.com/news/its-a-g-thing/long-range-weather-forecasting-for-a-good-cause/?fbclid=IwAR0jkiJpWM03F6bhh9nFVgijdQYB1R8Qw7ioZR7hlf-6bJXC3WC1U_M2OAs

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:26 am

The next 10 days will be critical into how the rest of this month unfolds in terms of colder than normal weather. If the tropical forcing is able to maintain strength and get into favorable phases of the MJO, it will allow ridging to build into the northern Pacific and drive colder air into our region. If this does not occur, and the Strat PV continues to intensify, we're looking at a warm mid/end month of December.

The next 8 days we'll see two storm system - both likely to cut to our N&W - but the chance remains we see some snow on the front-end with both storms. Obviously N&W of NYC remains favorable for snow December 5th and again December 8th.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:49 pm

It’s all coming together quite nicely. Things are on track…..

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 08f0f710

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 27bcf810

I like a blend of these two; GEFS amplitude, GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE blend of phase.

TRUST THE PROCESS.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:52 pm

We suffer and torch now, reap the reward later.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 0ecda410

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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:09 pm

@rb924119 wrote:It’s all coming together quite nicely. Things are on track…..

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 08f0f710

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 27bcf810

I like a blend of these two; GEFS amplitude, GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE blend of phase.

TRUST THE PROCESS.


MJO into seven is starting to look like this...Cut inside..nope going outside into 7, NOPE!! cutting back inside into 6!!!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCyFJgEI

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:41 pm

If the MJO stays low amplitude and gets into phase 7 I think it's effect won't do much to offset the +AO state anyway. High amplitude stronger wave then I could see some ridging in the GOA which could keep us in a better temp regime. If it goes back to phase 6 with this +NAM state then come Christmas you may be wearing short sleeve shirts.

The only thing that seems clear to me is we haven't hit maximum +AO state yet. It's projected to go +3 sigma in a few days which concerns me the PV may be stubborn.


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Post by rb924119 Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:25 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:If the MJO stays low amplitude and gets into phase 7 I think it's effect won't do much to offset the +AO state anyway.  High amplitude stronger wave then I could see some ridging in the GOA which could keep us in a better temp regime.  If it goes back to phase 6 with this +NAM state then come Christmas you may be wearing short sleeve shirts.  

The only thing that seems clear to me is we haven't hit maximum +AO state yet.  It's projected to go +3 sigma in a few days which concerns me the PV may be stubborn.


I’m not looking at the near-term effects with this. My opinion for the last week or so has been that December and the front half of January is wasted, and I think so far, that’s being proven to have merit. With the coupling between the Stratospheric PV and Tropospheric PV constructively interfering with the coupling between tropical modes, it’s pretty clear to me that any hopes for winter in the near term are false.

I’m not playing that game. I’m playing the long-range game here, and looking at what the extended impacts will be of the pattern that we are experiencing now and during the next several weeks. So, regardless of the immediate MJO phase and amplitude, I don’t think it’s going to matter. I think warmth and cutters run the table through mid-January, on the whole. However, the atmospheric process that should evolve over the next six weeks, ESPECIALLY if we can get the higher amplitude MJO response in phases 6 and 7 (which, as I stated in my original discussion, should be the end result, and I think you’re seeing the modeling adjust in that direction. Slow rotation through those phases at notably increased amplitude), it will largely help our cause down the road. And that’s where my bets are placed.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:39 pm

La Nina is definitely having an impact on the overall base state

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 FFi3DVnWYAo9ybe?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:05 pm

Positives polar vortex on our side of the globe.  Canada stays cold  with increasing snow pack. the warm up keeps getting pushed back it was supposed to start the last week of November now it looks like after December 10th .
   we will probably have a warm up after December 10th Fast pac flow should keep temps up-and-down Not a complete torch.  Lastly it won't take much to shuffle up the pattern with those factors mentioned above close by. let's get the MJO into phase 7 and see what happens from there
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 pm

I should also note December is not a very snowy month only averages 4" in New York City.  We're still a ways from peak climo.
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:11 pm

The system on the 8th has my interest We'll have a very cold air mass in place.  Not buying some of the amped up operational model solutions not with a very fast pac flow. we need that high pressure to sit over New England not off the East coast to get some overrunning snows
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Post by rb924119 Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:36 pm

@algae888 wrote:Positives polar vortex on our side of the globe.  Canada stays cold  with increasing snow pack. the warm up keeps getting pushed back it was supposed to start the last week of November now it looks like after December 10th .
   we will probably have a warm up after December 10th Fast pac flow should keep temps up-and-down Not a complete torch.  Lastly it won't take much to shuffle up the pattern with those factors mentioned above close by. let's get the MJO into phase 7 and see what happens from there

I have to respectfully disagree with your statements regarding “the warmup”. We start getting out our our current colder stretch in a couple days and get into a typical “back and forth” regime in a couple days. This then biases warm thereafter. So really, we are in the dying days of our colder stretch already.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:39 pm

@algae888 wrote:The system on the 8th has my interest We'll have a very cold air mass in place.  Not buying some of the amped up operational model solutions not with a very fast pac flow. we need that high pressure to sit over New England not off the East coast to get some overrunning snows

I wouldn’t buy into this at all, honestly. It’s a classic case of the modeling under representing the warm air advection, and you already acknowledged the culprit - the retreat of the high pressure (and therefore, your cold air source) off the coast opens the flood gates for the warmth to surge (among other hemispheric properties).

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:34 pm


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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:55 pm

Each day, I am looking at the long range looking for something exciting to track and it’s hard to see anything popping up in the short term. Even here in Albany, it looks pretty dull. While I may have a chance of a snow shower here or there, it doesn’t look like much else to be honest.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:04 am

The match has been lit. How long and how strong can we go? I still like the amplitude of the GEFS, and a blend of the GEFS and EC for phase evolution:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 953da610

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 5c0d4b10

Let’s watch it burn and see what happens. I like our prospects, increasingly from day to day, I might add. And, the long-range GEFS are beginning to show signs of EXACTLY what I’m looking for in the Strat. And with the magnitude that they are showing it at a two-week lead, it’s impressive. I know it’s the GFS at extended range, but when it fits my preconceived ideas, I start paying attention. I’m trying to claw around for additional details, but it’s tough lol so sit tight folks, and TRUST THE PROCESS.

Additionally, some of you are going to see “MJO Phase 7 at amplitude in December is cold”. Yes, at face value. But the problem is it’s enhancing the La Niña signal in the background state; it’s not acting on a tropically “neutral” playing field. This means that it will act very differently than it otherwise would. I believe a strong La Niña response (which is about what you’ll have if you combine the background La Niña forcing with the MJO pulse) is an all-out torch for us, similar to strong El Niño, with an enhanced Southeast ridge, and that should be our result here during the next several weeks. But somebody please check my memory on this and correct me if I’m wrong.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:14 am

Note the increase in reds over Eastern Asia (warming) combined with the expansion of the height field in that area (warming, slowing of the wind field, respectively). This is at the heart of the Stratosphere, that would be the start of a true Stratospheric warming event. The signal at this lead is impressive, especially for an ensemble. Let’s see if it keeps showing it, AND if it keeps the progression…

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 7 5f5dcb10

My gif isn’t working again Sad

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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:18 am

Rb  If I understand correctly from your post the last several days you're  Punting the 1st 6 weeks of 
 met Winter and you're excited about that.   Winter starting mid January  just doesn't do it for me. for the most part it would be a Winter fail
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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:49 am

@algae888 wrote:Rb  If I understand correctly from your post the last several days you're  Punting the 1st 6 weeks of 
 met Winter and you're excited about that.   Winter starting mid January  just doesn't do it for me. for the most part it would be a Winter fail

Yeah, I think we are out of the game until mid-January, but by Week 3 of January we start making up for lost time. To clarify, I’m NOT happy that we are losing the opening month (plus) of my favorite season, but unlike some other years, I don’t see any reason to jump off the cliff. Right now I fully believe that we are just going to have to be patient, and in time, we will be rewarded pretty handsomely. As I said, once we flip, which I think will be during Week 2 of January, I think we flip hard and have an old-fashioned winter from Week 3 of January through most, if not even all of March. In looking at how I expect this winter to play out regarding the overall evolution of winter, I like ‘17-‘18 as an analog, but we will be about a month to six weeks ahead of that pace. Granted, I’ve not compared ENSO or QBO states, SST configurations, or things like that, and that may be my downfall. But conceptually, I like a similar evolution to how that winter played out, just on an earlier timeline relative to the seasonality.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Rb  If I understand correctly from your post the last several days you're  Punting the 1st 6 weeks of 
 met Winter and you're excited about that.   Winter starting mid January  just doesn't do it for me. for the most part it would be a Winter fail

Yeah, I think we are out of the game until mid-January, but by Week 3 of January we start making up for lost time. To clarify, I’m NOT happy that we are losing the opening month (plus) of my favorite season, but unlike some other years, I don’t see any reason to jump off the cliff. Right now I fully believe that we are just going to have to be patient, and in time, we will be rewarded pretty handsomely. As I said, once we flip, which I think will be during Week 2 of January, I think we flip hard and have an old-fashioned winter from Week 3 of January through most, if not even all of March. In looking at how I expect this winter to play out regarding the overall evolution of winter, I like ‘17-‘18 as an analog, but we will be about a month to six weeks ahead of that pace. Granted, I’ve not compared ENSO or QBO states, SST configurations, or things like that, and that may be my downfall. But conceptually, I like a similar evolution to how that winter played out, just on an earlier timeline relative to the seasonality.

I'm impressed that you have the conviction to make that kind of call. It's very easy to bail on winter if the first half is poor. Mob mentality can many times take over and make one change their mind with or w/out good reason. Kudos and am certainly rooting for this!

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