Long Range Discussion 22.0

Looking at the H5 on this for next week I am not feeling good about coastal areas if there is a storm. For the most part they all are in the wrong area (AO/NAO/PNA) for a coastal snow threat especially this time of year. Even further inland I'd be skeptical. This feels like a CNE and well upstate NY (Binghamton to Catskills) snow threat. Definitely something to keep an eye on though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021112912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_27.png

This image highlights just a snapshot, but the context surrounding it ends up being very similar to what I think will be the true evolution. While there is moderate HP north of main, it scoots away to the east as the LP approaches. No 50/50 LP to block that HP in place to supply cold air…no Greenland Block/-NAO to hold a 50/50 in even if there was one. So even if we do get Pacific “help” in the form of a relaxed EPO or a temporary PNA ridge “spike”, most of that gets mitigated on today’s 12z operational GFS. Still fun to track, and obviously things can change - all caveats apply - but I agree with those who have viewed this threat period with skepticism.

amugs wrote:

ok..here's our next system potential to follow...still a bit out... just keep an eye on the ensembles until we're around 4-5 days

but a pretty robust wave passing through with inversion... euro a bit late on the trough tilt, heavier snows inland... GFS is a bit faster to coast pic.twitter.com/LM5ijgjmke

— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) November 29, 2021

We shall see but interesting how it was cutter city two days ago and last night 18Z runs it started to shift these SE on BOTH ENS and OP runs. Only 6 days away LOL!

Up close views:






Smoke City for LI! IF IT VERIFIES!!

Endless enthusiasm…..like a kid on Christmas, and I love it haha

Rb someone has to rally the troops and get them ready for what might be.!!
Rayno - I'll take the middle track for $800 Bernie!!

This is the set-up I have been waiting for.Trough digs into East (GFS-Sun am) if energy across southern branch can run out of ahead of trough,a storm will move along the coast or further inland, if southern energy lags it is out to sea.All scenarios possible. @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/SpiM2kvpJI

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) November 29, 2021

Unfort until proven otherwise I agreee with Heehaw, Matty Ice, and Ray ray. Not too much to add. There just isnt a mechanism to prevent this thing from cutting IMO. The PAC side of things is just awful

Yes. The PAC has been bad for several years. Consistent fast flow knocking down any chance of sustained west coast ridging. I think second week of December a possible phase 7 MJO could help facilitate a transient -EPO and maybe dump some cold air to the east coast. But how long until it gets beaten back? The MJO in phase 7 isn't stellar for winter weather in December but it's better than phase 6. Others have talked about the disruption of polar vortex, but that is a high risk/reward proposition. It could flip us to sustained -AO but it could also do the reverse if gets displaced in the wrong area. The only thing I'm confident on is if we don't get the favorable arctic oscillation then this winter will suck in a big way based on the PAC performance.

Saturdays Clipper can bring us some more snow showers Saturday into Sunday peeps.

From the Legend Jim Witt's Winter Forecast - he and Mr. G his buddy.

https://pix11.com/news/its-a-g-thing/long-range-weather-forecasting-for-a-good-cause/?fbclid=IwAR0jkiJpWM03F6bhh9nFVgijdQYB1R8Qw7ioZR7hlf-6bJXC3WC1U_M2OAs

The next 10 days will be critical into how the rest of this month unfolds in terms of colder than normal weather. If the tropical forcing is able to maintain strength and get into favorable phases of the MJO, it will allow ridging to build into the northern Pacific and drive colder air into our region. If this does not occur, and the Strat PV continues to intensify, we're looking at a warm mid/end month of December.

The next 8 days we'll see two storm system - both likely to cut to our N&W - but the chance remains we see some snow on the front-end with both storms. Obviously N&W of NYC remains favorable for snow December 5th and again December 8th.

It’s all coming together quite nicely. Things are on track…..





I like a blend of these two; GEFS amplitude, GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE blend of phase.

TRUST THE PROCESS.

We suffer and torch now, reap the reward later.

rb924119 wrote:It’s all coming together quite nicely. Things are on track…..





I like a blend of these two; GEFS amplitude, GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE blend of phase.

TRUST THE PROCESS.

MJO into seven is starting to look like this...Cut inside..nope going outside into 7, NOPE!! cutting back inside into 6!!!

If the MJO stays low amplitude and gets into phase 7 I think it's effect won't do much to offset the +AO state anyway. High amplitude stronger wave then I could see some ridging in the GOA which could keep us in a better temp regime. If it goes back to phase 6 with this +NAM state then come Christmas you may be wearing short sleeve shirts.

The only thing that seems clear to me is we haven't hit maximum +AO state yet. It's projected to go +3 sigma in a few days which concerns me the PV may be stubborn.

heehaw453 wrote:If the MJO stays low amplitude and gets into phase 7 I think it's effect won't do much to offset the +AO state anyway.  High amplitude stronger wave then I could see some ridging in the GOA which could keep us in a better temp regime.  If it goes back to phase 6 with this +NAM state then come Christmas you may be wearing short sleeve shirts.  

The only thing that seems clear to me is we haven't hit maximum +AO state yet.  It's projected to go +3 sigma in a few days which concerns me the PV may be stubborn.

I’m not looking at the near-term effects with this. My opinion for the last week or so has been that December and the front half of January is wasted, and I think so far, that’s being proven to have merit. With the coupling between the Stratospheric PV and Tropospheric PV constructively interfering with the coupling between tropical modes, it’s pretty clear to me that any hopes for winter in the near term are false.

I’m not playing that game. I’m playing the long-range game here, and looking at what the extended impacts will be of the pattern that we are experiencing now and during the next several weeks. So, regardless of the immediate MJO phase and amplitude, I don’t think it’s going to matter. I think warmth and cutters run the table through mid-January, on the whole. However, the atmospheric process that should evolve over the next six weeks, ESPECIALLY if we can get the higher amplitude MJO response in phases 6 and 7 (which, as I stated in my original discussion, should be the end result, and I think you’re seeing the modeling adjust in that direction. Slow rotation through those phases at notably increased amplitude), it will largely help our cause down the road. And that’s where my bets are placed.

La Nina is definitely having an impact on the overall base state

Positives polar vortex on our side of the globe.  Canada stays cold  with increasing snow pack. the warm up keeps getting pushed back it was supposed to start the last week of November now it looks like after December 10th .
   we will probably have a warm up after December 10th Fast pac flow should keep temps up-and-down Not a complete torch.  Lastly it won't take much to shuffle up the pattern with those factors mentioned above close by. let's get the MJO into phase 7 and see what happens from there

I should also note December is not a very snowy month only averages 4" in New York City.  We're still a ways from peak climo.

The system on the 8th has my interest We'll have a very cold air mass in place.  Not buying some of the amped up operational model solutions not with a very fast pac flow. we need that high pressure to sit over New England not off the East coast to get some overrunning snows

algae888 wrote:Positives polar vortex on our side of the globe.  Canada stays cold  with increasing snow pack. the warm up keeps getting pushed back it was supposed to start the last week of November now it looks like after December 10th .
   we will probably have a warm up after December 10th Fast pac flow should keep temps up-and-down Not a complete torch.  Lastly it won't take much to shuffle up the pattern with those factors mentioned above close by. let's get the MJO into phase 7 and see what happens from there

I have to respectfully disagree with your statements regarding “the warmup”. We start getting out our our current colder stretch in a couple days and get into a typical “back and forth” regime in a couple days. This then biases warm thereafter. So really, we are in the dying days of our colder stretch already.

algae888 wrote:The system on the 8th has my interest We'll have a very cold air mass in place.  Not buying some of the amped up operational model solutions not with a very fast pac flow. we need that high pressure to sit over New England not off the East coast to get some overrunning snows

I wouldn’t buy into this at all, honestly. It’s a classic case of the modeling under representing the warm air advection, and you already acknowledged the culprit - the retreat of the high pressure (and therefore, your cold air source) off the coast opens the flood gates for the warmth to surge (among other hemispheric properties).

Last 8 runs of the GFS.... this a pretty exponential trend for a frontal snow next week.... see how things continue to progress but a positive sign pic.twitter.com/IcNdBhKYbx

— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) December 1, 2021

Each day, I am looking at the long range looking for something exciting to track and it’s hard to see anything popping up in the short term. Even here in Albany, it looks pretty dull. While I may have a chance of a snow shower here or there, it doesn’t look like much else to be honest.

The match has been lit. How long and how strong can we go? I still like the amplitude of the GEFS, and a blend of the GEFS and EC for phase evolution:







Let’s watch it burn and see what happens. I like our prospects, increasingly from day to day, I might add. And, the long-range GEFS are beginning to show signs of EXACTLY what I’m looking for in the Strat. And with the magnitude that they are showing it at a two-week lead, it’s impressive. I know it’s the GFS at extended range, but when it fits my preconceived ideas, I start paying attention. I’m trying to claw around for additional details, but it’s tough lol so sit tight folks, and TRUST THE PROCESS.

Additionally, some of you are going to see “MJO Phase 7 at amplitude in December is cold”. Yes, at face value. But the problem is it’s enhancing the La Niña signal in the background state; it’s not acting on a tropically “neutral” playing field. This means that it will act very differently than it otherwise would. I believe a strong La Niña response (which is about what you’ll have if you combine the background La Niña forcing with the MJO pulse) is an all-out torch for us, similar to strong El Niño, with an enhanced Southeast ridge, and that should be our result here during the next several weeks. But somebody please check my memory on this and correct me if I’m wrong.

Note the increase in reds over Eastern Asia (warming) combined with the expansion of the height field in that area (warming, slowing of the wind field, respectively). This is at the heart of the Stratosphere, that would be the start of a true Stratospheric warming event. The signal at this lead is impressive, especially for an ensemble. Let’s see if it keeps showing it, AND if it keeps the progression…



My gif isn’t working again

Rb  If I understand correctly from your post the last several days you're  Punting the 1st 6 weeks of 
 met Winter and you're excited about that.   Winter starting mid January  just doesn't do it for me. for the most part it would be a Winter fail

algae888 wrote:Rb  If I understand correctly from your post the last several days you're  Punting the 1st 6 weeks of 
 met Winter and you're excited about that.   Winter starting mid January  just doesn't do it for me. for the most part it would be a Winter fail

Yeah, I think we are out of the game until mid-January, but by Week 3 of January we start making up for lost time. To clarify, I’m NOT happy that we are losing the opening month (plus) of my favorite season, but unlike some other years, I don’t see any reason to jump off the cliff. Right now I fully believe that we are just going to have to be patient, and in time, we will be rewarded pretty handsomely. As I said, once we flip, which I think will be during Week 2 of January, I think we flip hard and have an old-fashioned winter from Week 3 of January through most, if not even all of March. In looking at how I expect this winter to play out regarding the overall evolution of winter, I like ‘17-‘18 as an analog, but we will be about a month to six weeks ahead of that pace. Granted, I’ve not compared ENSO or QBO states, SST configurations, or things like that, and that may be my downfall. But conceptually, I like a similar evolution to how that winter played out, just on an earlier timeline relative to the seasonality.

rb924119 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Rb  If I understand correctly from your post the last several days you're  Punting the 1st 6 weeks of 
 met Winter and you're excited about that.   Winter starting mid January  just doesn't do it for me. for the most part it would be a Winter fail

Yeah, I think we are out of the game until mid-January, but by Week 3 of January we start making up for lost time. To clarify, I’m NOT happy that we are losing the opening month (plus) of my favorite season, but unlike some other years, I don’t see any reason to jump off the cliff. Right now I fully believe that we are just going to have to be patient, and in time, we will be rewarded pretty handsomely. As I said, once we flip, which I think will be during Week 2 of January, I think we flip hard and have an old-fashioned winter from Week 3 of January through most, if not even all of March. In looking at how I expect this winter to play out regarding the overall evolution of winter, I like ‘17-‘18 as an analog, but we will be about a month to six weeks ahead of that pace. Granted, I’ve not compared ENSO or QBO states, SST configurations, or things like that, and that may be my downfall. But conceptually, I like a similar evolution to how that winter played out, just on an earlier timeline relative to the seasonality.

I'm impressed that you have the conviction to make that kind of call. It's very easy to bail on winter if the first half is poor. Mob mentality can many times take over and make one change their mind with or w/out good reason. Kudos and am certainly rooting for this!