Long Range Discussion 22.0

dkodgis wrote:And…we watch paint dry

We’re facing the Guns of warmth now, Damian, but we’ll get the sweet smell of Roses later - “all we need is just a little patience”.

Not gonna lie, I thought that was pretty clever lmao

Remember, Week 2 into Week 3 of January has always been my target period for the flip before we should largely run the rest of the table with Winter. Again, it’s only my opinion, but so far, the cards that I was expecting to be played have been, so I see no reason to abandon what’s gotten me to this point.

rb924119 wrote:

Wheezer wrote:It just seems like we've  been poo-pooing this LaNina event far to long as record warmth has inundated the lower 48 all winter. And now we see a +80 point rise in SOI in just over just a few days,  which tells me , atm , that LaNina is well in control  still.

Who’s been disregarding the La Niña? If anything, I feel like we have collectively been acknowledging the fact that it has, and continues to drive the pattern.

Refering more to those that had predicted back in November a fast and early .start to winter

Temps for next week are going down. I see this as an indication things are changing.

I recall several winter storms last season that featured a primary low cutting west and a secondary low developing off the coast that would change rain over to snow/mix. I’m seeing a couple of those types of storms show up in the medium range. Given the current conditions at 500mb, this does not surprise me.

The gradient pattern is difficult for the models and Ens to figure out 7 days let alone 4 days out. But the NAO looks to be holding on which will help at times as long as the trough over the WC is not on roids. If the trough gets pumped then things will be to far west for us and become purely inland runners. BUT I like where the gradient t is for now being modeled. Transitions is the pattern.
Wheeler a few calls for this due to typical Nina's are a fast start to winter and there where indicators and analogs showing such. We learn with each season, pattern and storm in the hobby, & profession.

amugs wrote:The gradient pattern is difficult for the models and Ens to figure out 7 days let alone 4 days out. But the NAO looks to be holding on which will help at times as long as the trough over the WC is not on roids. If the trough gets pumped then things will be to far west for us and become purely inland runners. BUT I like where the gradient t is for now being modeled. Transitions is the pattern.
Wheeler a few calls for this due to typical Nina's are a fast start to winter and there where indicators and analogs showing such. We learn with each season, pattern and storm in the hobby, & profession.

SWFEs often produce a narrow jackpot zone that usually sit just north of the baroclinic zone. There may be just enough blocking to prevent the inland runners / cutters but I’m not feeling hopeful just yet.

Maybe this belongs in Banter, but the EURO Op at Days 11-12 would probably be a HECS if extrapolated verbatim lol just figured I’d post it so we can all dream in unison and maybe make it a reality haha

6z gfs is interesting

rb924119 wrote:Maybe this belongs in Banter, but the EURO Op at Days 11-12 would probably be a HECS if extrapolated verbatim lol just figured I’d post it so we can all dream in unison and maybe make it a reality haha

Hope springs eternal. At least the expected temperature regime in that time-frame is snow friendly.

Think there will be a storm on 1/2ish time frame, but it depends on the gradient setup. I'm not a big believer in Miller B's or poorly spaced secondary waves working out in this area. What I could see is if High pressure is strong enough in Quebec then maybe get some front end WAA stuff until the mid-levels collapse. Quite honestly though a setup like this favors I-90 on north. I'd put this at a low probability to have much of an impact for most of the area. Not ready to say next yet...

Sleeting

Makes 3 out of the last 5 days we have had snow - weather a shower, accumulation, it still has snowed!

From Dr. Cohen

Look at this SE ridge on latest 12Z GEFS.  It has been modeled to be there for days, but every run it builds stronger and stronger and lasts longer.  So basically you get a break in the SE ridge first couple days of January (which is the low prob window for snow) then it goes gang busters which would imply that first 7-10 days of January will be AN temps.  Not that anyone was predicting January to start off with a bang, but what is troubling is the strength and persistence of the SE ridge.  Past 10 days I don't trust any models, but you can clearly see bad trends with that ridge.

This is a good look overall if we can keep it.
From 33 n Rain wx bd

Nice jet streak

amugs wrote:Nice jet streak

There is a window there Mugs, but we have bad wave spacing as modelled.  Extremely complex for this to work out as the low has room to go east based on the WAR position.  The other thing is the antecedent air mass would be bad.  Of course this implies this Euro run has it right one week out which we know it doesn't.  Definitely worth watching though.

Legitimate Eastern US storm chances are appearing in the 5-7 day timeframe, thanks to the temporary collapse of the Pacific Ridge. This collapse makes the overall pattern more progressive, allowing troughs to make it into the previously walled-off Eastern US. pic.twitter.com/TYQwsNlAtp

— Nikhil Trivedi (@DCAreaWx) December 27, 2021

There is some indication of a more serviceable PAC as we get passed January 7.  This would allow for much better storm potential and the colder air to bleed eastward. I would take this with a grain of salt for now as the PAC trough could easily hang tough and pump the SE ridge and push things back even further.

Need to see this look within 5 days.  

Some pictures to show differences of the mess we are in and where models are hinting of going.  Note the positive tilt of the PAC trough in the Now picture and this is what IMO is causing that SE ridge to pump.  Even deep trough can be go not so bad if it was neutral.

Future



Now

Of course I'm not letting the GFS suck me into this at day 5+, but that is a nice h5 look for decent snow.  If that is true, then coastal areas have a shot at something around 1/2-3.  Will the GFS show this in 2 days, lol?  

heehaw453 wrote:Of course I'm not letting the GFS suck me into this at day 5+, but that is a nice h5 look for decent snow.  If that is true, then coastal areas have a shot at something around 1/2-3.  Will the GFS show this in 2 days, lol?  

As long as we cont to maintain those positive heights in the west there is a chance. Like you said still too far out to take serious though. CMC much flatter out west with 12z resulting in the progressive flow and nothing. Must must must maintain some sort of ridging in the west. As we have said in the past baby bear needed.

GFS vs CMC:

heehaw453 wrote:There is some indication of a more serviceable PAC as we get passed January 7.  This would allow for much better storm potential and the colder air to bleed eastward. I would take this with a grain of salt for now as the PAC trough could easily hang tough and pump the SE ridge and push things back even further.

Need to see this look within 5 days.  

Some pictures to show differences of the mess we are in and where models are hinting of going.  Note the positive tilt of the PAC trough in the Now picture and this is what IMO is causing that SE ridge to pump.  Even deep trough can be go not so bad if it was neutral.

Future



Now

Right on track

Rb, are the horrific temps and pattern coming up for this week a direct manifestation of “the worse it gets sooner, the better it will be later” that you have been alluding to?

The 12Z Euro western heights are pumped tantamount with GFS.  The issue is you don't have much s/w energy rounding the base of the trough and it's a bit of a positive tilt.  If this was to amount to anything I'd like to see more neutral tilt and some s/w energy rounding the base. However, any s/w energy sampling won't be for a few days, and the tilt could definitely be adjusted at this range.  I'd just say low probability window right now.

SENJsnowman wrote:Rb, are the horrific temps and pattern coming up for this week a direct manifestation of “the worse it gets sooner, the better it will be later” that you have been alluding to?

Not just the next week or so, but the whole month of December as well haha it’s a process that takes time evolve, and we are nearing the point in that evolution where it’s darkest just before dawn. At least in my opinion.

rb924119 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Rb, are the horrific temps and pattern coming up for this week a direct manifestation of “the worse it gets sooner, the better it will be later” that you have been alluding to?

Not just the next week or so, but the whole month of December as well haha it’s a process that takes time evolve, and we are nearing the point in that evolution where it’s darkest just before dawn. At least in my opinion.

So far RB it does look like your forecast is coming into better view we approach January. Also there are some hints of PV lobe displacement coming from Hudson Bay that could enhance the colder temps. All I can say is I want to believe, I really do, but I just need to see things materialize further to have much confidence.

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z Euro western heights are pumped tantamount with GFS.  The issue is you don't have much s/w energy rounding the base of the trough and it's a bit of a positive tilt.  If this was to amount to anything I'd like to see more neutral tilt and some s/w energy rounding the base. However, any s/w energy sampling won't be for a few days, and the tilt could definitely be adjusted at this range.  I'd just say low probability window right now.

The real difference between the two is the timing and positioning of the energy early on.  Look at the difference between the side by sides with Euro on the left and GFS on the right by hr 90.  Euro already phasing alot of energy where as GFS is not.  



Its messy with all that phasing energy as it exits into the Plains and heads into the east but by hr 126 on the Euro, which coincides with the image you posted above, it results in one long strong strung out progressive line of vorticity and a seperate thinner line of vort well out ahead of it just off the E coast ; hence the very positive tilt you mention whereas the GFS is weaker with the trailing line of vorticity and taking its time but catching up with the second leading line of vorticity.



Notice the difference between the gap between the two lines I drew outlining the two areas of SW to NE oriented vorticity on both models on both hr 126 and the last image which is hr 138. The euro keeps both lines or vort separate hence the warmer run and no storm forming south of us.  The GFS however catches up with that energy and you get a phase, and hence a storm develop to the south and a colder soln.  The phase is just a few hours too late so you still have a pos tilt,(albiet much less pos/closer to neutral tilt) relative to the euro soln, and the system scrapes the area.  





Overall if you look at the western trough in the side by side comparisons they look pretty damn similar which is good news.  There is SO much energy coming into the west coast of NA and diving in from Alaska etc that I think its still at least 2 days before we start to see some consistency with how models from run to run depict all the energy.  Heck look at the energy difference even at hr 75 on the side by side: