Long Range Discussion 22.0

Mugsy - If we build it, they will come. We are building it, and I think they’ll be coming lol

Frank - Great post regarding storm threats. I’ve not paid attention to the 27th-29th, but I’ll take your word for it

Heehaw - I don’t think there’s any question of whether or not we CAN do it. The potential in the pattern is there. The question is whether or not that potential will be realized. There are some interesting goings on for the 13th-16th threat regarding the evolution, and I’m probably going to do a video discussion either tomorrow (really today at this point lol) or Sunday highlighting exactly what I mean. But basically, you have a juxtaposition of a decaying progressive pattern within a larger retrograding pattern that’s reaching the end of its retrogression. Now, to me, my preliminary excitement for this particular period still appears to be warranted BIGLY based on two things: 1) pattern recognition and 2) looking at the intricacies of the ensembles and how they should eventually evolve as we start getting inside Day 4-5. And yes, I do think it will take that long before we “see” the threat really showing up on guidance. And based on preliminary analysis, I don’t think we will be talking about another 5-10 incher. I don’t want to hype too much, but I think the potential ceiling is VERY MUCH HIGHER than that. And that’s just system 1. We are entering a pattern that is not dissimilar from the pattern that produced Snowmageddon, in my opinion.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1641600000/1642334400-qD1HlX9JIzA.png

Explosive pattern ahead

Snow88 wrote:Explosive pattern ahead

Let's hope so long range looks good

Rb this is a very interesting look.  You have a low getting pinned under an east based block off Labrador coast and another one forming off the Delmarva coast.  That look is how big ones are formed and how an ULL can cutoff and stack vertically with mid-level energy.  That is potential for sure.  I won't get my hopes up yet but I'm intrigued.  Let us know if you are going to post a video on this one...

The following upper level maps from the GEFS show the average 500mb anomaly between days 10 to 17 and 17 to 24. I will be shocked…shocked if this pattern does not deliver something special. 

Snow88 wrote:Explosive pattern ahead

In regard to weather or are you going on a trip to Mexico and intend on drinking the water?

Irish wrote:

Snow88 wrote:Explosive pattern ahead

In regard to weather or are you going on a trip to Mexico and intend on drinking the water?

I literally spit coffee out reading that.

Hey Scott, check your SOI

Let’s see if it sustains itself for a little while. I think it may.

12Z GEFS for 1/16.
This is one of the loudest barks you'll see on ensembles for a snowstorm at D7+.  Wow and it's consistent with the EPS setup.

From what I have seen over the years some big snowstorms for this area are times of initial relaxation or times of initial flexing of the NAO.  This is a time of initial significant flexing of the NAO as progged. Note the dip around 1/14.

Heehaw, check the 12z EURO it’s not there yet, but it’s a start. EPS should be…….interesting lol

I know. I know. Extended range. GFS. Blah blah blah…I just don’t care. And can’t help myself.

MattyICE wrote:
I know. I know. Extended range. GFS. Blah blah blah…I just don’t care. And can’t help myself.

Check the date, January 20th. That’s one of the three periods Frank mentioned. Legitimate possibility.

The pattern being advertised in the medium range GEPS and GEFS today so far is absurd. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a signal beyond Day 10 across multiple ensembles.

HIS PATTERN VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE NOT ONE BUT MULTIPLE MAJOR EC STORMS.
EPO/PNA COUPLET WITH PV OVWR HUDSON BAY IS JUST DELICIOUS!

Jet Retraction after this week and the Aleutian Low allows for teh EPO to Negative, PNA to spike and the STJ to get in on the act.
From Jim Sullivan Pro Met

After struggling mightily with the Pacific pattern through December...WOOF...extended jet resulting in a milder spell next week retracts and settles into a configuration allowing for an Aleutian low/West Coast ridge. Some sub-tropical jet too. Second half of January looks wintry. pic.twitter.com/kQFfSZaoy3

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) January 8, 2022

rb924119 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:
I know. I know. Extended range. GFS. Blah blah blah…I just don’t care. And can’t help myself.

Check the date, January 20th. That’s one of the three periods Frank mentioned. Legitimate possibility.

Rb said in his video from early December, “you might have to wait as far into Jan as Week 3…” And just look at what’s out there, right on cue! Amazing.

This snow map showed over a foot for every single member of the board. It’s quite literally one of the biggest ‘clown maps’ you’ll ever see.

SENJsnowman wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:
I know. I know. Extended range. GFS. Blah blah blah…I just don’t care. And can’t help myself.

Check the date, January 20th. That’s one of the three periods Frank mentioned. Legitimate possibility.

Rb said in his video from early December, “you might have to wait as far into Jan as Week 3…” And just look at what’s out there, right on cue! Amazing.

This snow map showed over a foot for every single member of the board. It’s quite literally one of the biggest ‘clown maps’ you’ll ever see.

Right. Totally aware. That’s why I said “I know I know…” etc!

MattyICE wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:
I know. I know. Extended range. GFS. Blah blah blah…I just don’t care. And can’t help myself.

Check the date, January 20th. That’s one of the three periods Frank mentioned. Legitimate possibility.

Rb said in his video from early December, “you might have to wait as far into Jan as Week 3…” And just look at what’s out there, right on cue! Amazing.

This snow map showed over a foot for every single member of the board. It’s quite literally one of the biggest ‘clown maps’ you’ll ever see.

Right. Totally aware. That’s why I said “I know I know…” etc!

I wasn’t suspecting you of clowning Matty. Was just pointing the surreal nature of the potential that’s being teased out. Sorry for the confusion.

SENJsnowman wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:
I know. I know. Extended range. GFS. Blah blah blah…I just don’t care. And can’t help myself.

Check the date, January 20th. That’s one of the three periods Frank mentioned. Legitimate possibility.

Rb said in his video from early December, “you might have to wait as far into Jan as Week 3…” And just look at what’s out there, right on cue! Amazing.

This snow map showed over a foot for every single member of the board. It’s quite literally one of the biggest ‘clown maps’ you’ll ever see.

This is nothing compared to the EURO Control run from today. Multiply this by three over a nine-day span, and it keeps going lol the thing is, that WILL BE the result IF the maximum potential is realized here with this upcoming pattern. Not saying it’s definite, but that’s what the ceiling is of this pattern.

Now, regarding the 13th-16th, I’m doing some preliminary analysis, and I think I like what I’m seeing so far, but it is a highly delicate setup; more than usual. So there are a lot of ways it can go wrong, but from what I’m seeing right now, I still like the threat.

Hopefully our good luck on staying all snow at the coast continues too. Track and temp been very hostile to us Ocean County residents for a few years now. Seems like the next few weeks could continue to be different in that regard…we’ll see!

Someone post the gfs for next weekend lol

We can’t sleep on the 13th either, although I think that will likely just miss to our east.

rb924119 wrote:We can’t sleep on the 13th either, although I think that will likely just miss to our east.

Upton take

"In wake of polar trough, northern stream upper flow will dominate
mid to late week with E US trough amplifying in response to a series
of shortwaves moving through the flow. The shortwave energy of note
appears to be NE PAC origin, diving towards the SE US coast for
midweek. General agreement with this energy being the catalyst for
northern and southern stream phasing Thu/Fri with development of
[url=https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=closed low]closed low[/url] upper low and strong low pressure off the SE US coast. At
this time, model consensus is that that this phasing will take place
too far east in a progressive flow, keeping developing low pressure
well east of the region. Since this is still 5-6 days out, with
these interactions inherently tough for models to resolve, something
that bears watching through the week for development and track
closer to the coast. Otherwise, locally just a weak and dry frontal
passage on Thursday in response to digging and eastward translating
northern stream trough.

rb924119 wrote:We can’t sleep on the 13th either, although I think that will likely just miss to our east.

Let me know as soon as you get a feel on this, my Mom is supposed to fly out to Florida Thursday at 2 pm, I may change her flight to the 12th.