Long Range Discussion 22.0

Snow88 wrote:Holy PNA in the long range



There also might be a threat of a big storm mid month but that's too far out to talk about it..

That’s the one mugsy and I have been barking at for almost a week now (though the foundation was laid a long time before that). Now that the models are finally seeing the proper pattern evolution, they will start (and have already started) to pick up on the actual storm threat itself.

Rb here is the holy progression of the MJO by the CFSv2 - If this come to fruition that would be majestic:

Storm after storm rolls through with this pattern - March 2018 redux??
Massive Cold in this pattern ......if it comes to fruition.

The -EPO/+PNA is bound to deliver. The timeframe you guys are speaking of (13th-16th) looks great. For most of this month there appears to be ample opportunity. I don’t think the pattern supports Roodzilla or anything extreme but a moderate to Godzilla certainly on the table.

Frank_Wx wrote:The -EPO/+PNA is bound to deliver. The timeframe you guys are speaking of (13th-16th) looks great. For most of this month there appears to be ample opportunity. I don’t think the pattern supports Roodzilla or anything extreme but a moderate to Godzilla certainly on the table.

There’s the Frank we all know and love! Haha

Also, the pattern being portrayed by the GEFS, and even the GEPS in the extended range is a brutally cold pattern. The EPS, per usual with this whole thing, seems to be behind the 8 ball right now. That said, I think the GEFS are the most accurate with where this pattern is likely to go, though I think even it too may be trying to play with too much retrogression at the end of its run. I like the mean ridge axis to set up shop right on or JUST west of the coast of North America and then extend into Alaska (and even beyond, depending on how nicely the WPO wants to play lol). IF this turns out to be correct, then getting to what Frank said, we are going to have a HECK OF A LOT of tracking to do, as we would have access to both the northern AND southern streams to be ejecting disturbances into the mean trough, and I like our chances. Either way, this is where my ideas will make or break my forecast, so to say that I’ll be on pins and needles for the next two weeks or so is an understatement haha

WE TRACK!!!

This IA an ABSOLUTELY BOMB SET UP!!
PAGING RB!!
PLEASE COME TRUE!

My LORD!! This has maybe not 1 but 2 bombs possible.

amugs wrote:This IA an ABSOLUTELY BOMB SET UP!!
PAGING RB!!
PLEASE COME TRUE!

Youuuuuu rannnnggggggggggggggg???? Lol

It’s the Holy Pentad. Verbatim, the above graphic and your EURO image would be a major snow storm, no doubt about it. That is a powder keg with a lit fuse. You want better news? MJO plots. OLR plots indicating broad subsidence over the Maritime Continent and ascent getting toward the Dateline. Extended ranges of the three global ensembles (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) showing signs of trying to reverse their retrogression of the pattern and maintain the time-mean ridge axis just offshore of the West Coast. And, the Strat is still looking decent through the end of the extended Ensembles.

As I stated in my previous post, the ideas that were presented are looking VERY good, but this next two-week stretch (or so) is what is going to make or break those ideas. So, while I’m incredibly excited, optimistic, and confident, since the ideas have gotten us to this point, I am also INCREDIBLY nervous haha because I don’t want to trip up five feet from the finish line and let you all down.

WE TRACK!!

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:This IA an ABSOLUTELY BOMB SET UP!!
PAGING RB!!
PLEASE COME TRUE!

Youuuuuu rannnnggggggggggggggg???? Lol

It’s the Holy Pentad. Verbatim, the above graphic and your EURO image would be a major snow storm, no doubt about it. That is a powder keg with a lit fuse. You want better news? MJO plots. OLR plots indicating broad subsidence over the Maritime Continent and ascent getting toward the Dateline. Extended ranges of the three global ensembles (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) showing signs of trying to reverse their retrogression of the pattern and maintain the time-mean ridge axis just offshore of the West Coast. And, the Strat is still looking decent through the end of the extended Ensembles.

As I stated in my previous post, the ideas that were presented are looking VERY good, but this next two-week stretch (or so) is what is going to make or break those ideas. So, while I’m incredibly excited, optimistic, and confident, since the ideas have gotten us to this point, I am also INCREDIBLY nervous haha because I don’t want to trip up five feet from the finish line and let you all down.

WE TRACK!!

rb,

You have absolutely nothing to be nervous about. I, for one, greatly appreciate the time, effort and videos (which I mostly don't understand) that you put together. If your predictions come to fruition... AWESOME! If they don't, they've created great conversation and daily interest. I know that I can't be the only one who wakes up in the morning eager to read an update!

Irish

Are we going to keep that strong influx of pacific moisture coming in? So far we haven’t seen anything materialize? Any chance of the pacific moisture combining with the gulf for a massive event?? Sorry first time this year it’s been exciting to track!!!!1!

Emo- happy new year brother! Looks like the second half of January we may get the goods!

Emo- happy new year brother! Looks like the second half of January we may get the goods!

Thanks, Irish!!

Welcome back, emo!! It’s not necessarily Pacific moisture that we are looking for, rather systems (energy) coming from the Pacific underneath the western North American ridge. As they move across the southern tier of the U.S. they can begin drawing Gulf moisture northward, as you correctly stated, but with the ridge over western North America, can also have energy from the northern stream come down the eastern side of that ridge and interact with the southern energy. In my opinion, this type of evolution is VERY likely as it looks right now, and with the projected pattern, any system that develops like that would be a slow mover thanks to the pseudo-blocking in the Atlantic domain. So, a slow moving storm with access to Gulf and then Atlantic moisture and cold air is a recipe for excitement. We just have to be patient, but this is why mugs and I have been so enthusiastic for Week 2 or 3 of January for a long time, and more specifically, the 13th-16th. The pattern has a very high ceiling, and I mean VERY HIGH. But, it has to be realized.

I’m not sure how good the model is, but we can find out together lol for the first time this entire winter season, the GEFS Extended (35-day forecast) is wall to wall cold for its entire run. That takes us through the first week of February, and the pattern it is projecting aligns with my thoughts exactly. Again, not sure if it can be trusted, but it has completely flipped from the same old -PNA/Eastern U.S. ridge (what we saw all of December and opening days of January) that it has been reverting to beyond its Day 15. Interesting, for sure.

UHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHH………





Right on track, folks. Now it seems others may be picking up on things.

Keep distorting that pressure pattern and the atmosphere will respond in due course. Well, this hasn’t just happened over night, but has been occurring for the last couple months. Meaning? We will start seeing the rewards, and the modeling is seeing it now in the medium range, and might be starting to catch on in the extended

The 12z GFS Operational just lost its mind in the long range lol takes Tropospheric PV and drops it into the Great Lakes. I haven’t checked thicknesses yet, but it’s probably sub-474dm. For those that are less well-versed, that would equate to below 0 temperatures, and if we have even a little snow on the ground, -10s to -20s haha BRING IT!

Edit: forgot to mention the blizzard it brings lol I’m not one for hype, or at least try not to be, and usually I laugh at stuff like this, but this time around, I truly believe that this is at the very least POSSIBLE if things line up how I expect. This run fits the overall progression I believe will occur. This is just the extreme end of the possibility spectrum.

Rb it's coming brother!!
Umm our call is moving up in time my man!!

Docstox... energy stocks my man play Nat Gas and you'll be happy. Did so in Oct before Wyrope went into the freezer.

Just your run of the mill triple phaser at the end of the GFS run.

Have not said anything this winter so far but following up on Rb’s comments late in the G F S run. It looks like a blizzard of 1888 set up, quasi stationary front off the coast with upper energy diving into it. Low moves into central or eastern LI as it heads up the front. Very intriguing at this point!

WeatherBob wrote:Have not said anything this winter so far but following up on Rb’s comments late in the G F S run.  It looks like a blizzard of 1888 set up,  quasi stationary front off the coast with upper energy diving into it.  Low moves into central or eastern LI as it heads up the front.  Very intriguing at this point!

Welcome back, Bob!! I must admit that I’m not too familiar with 1888, but I’ll trust your judgement haha that said, the February blizzard of 2010 was the same evolution. I know that much because I did a case study on it in college haha either way, to see those types of analogs appearing on a model run that fits long-standing ideas is encouraging to say the least lol

I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home

chief7 wrote:I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home

Welcome aboard! No chain, no lock, and this train won’t stop




All three global ensembles continuing to shift in our favor today at 12z. Fingers crossed!

chief7 wrote:I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home

Me three

Bob!! Welcome back.
I'm tellinf you all NYC will have a crippling snowstorm this winter.
And the MJO wave stuck in pahse 7 is fine for January. If it gets moving into 8 for February even better and will align with Rb call quite nicely.

Frank_Wx wrote:

chief7 wrote:I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home

Me three

EPS Weeklies also flipped - verbatim, we rock through all of January before it tries flipping us back to the pattern we had in December, just like the GFS Extended. However, I know the EPS weeklies are not exactly too reliable once beyond Week 2-3 anyway - look how late they are to the party this time. So, that being said, I’ll take the Weeklies’ flip to cold for this entire month as a victory for now, and be happy that my ideas continue gaining momentum.