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Long Range Discussion 22.0

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:55 am

The pattern should remain active.  These negative SOI values are indicative of an active subtropical jet.  Hopefully we get lucky on something.

 Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Soi11

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:43 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Image_10
Aha there it is. Taken verbatim with 1.5 QPF with temps in the teens during the event it’s a 2 footer. CMC shows a huge hit as well. GFS shows a very strong storm although OTS. The difference with next weekends potential compared to tomorrows rainstorm is that we have a high in the right spot this time. Currently the models see the Day 6 potential then lose it only to bring it back again. Plenty of time to track, but after last nights Euro and CMC runs I’m sure Frank will have a more detailed discussion on it.
wow that deayh band right over my house, ill take 1 for me plz. Not getting sucking in though, thursday.

Good call Jon! As for myself, I’ll be getting sucked in. Probably in the next 24 hours, if the signal persists…
Who am I kidding, I will probably get sucked in if theres ALL good signs, if I hear this is a thread the needle not getting my hopes up. Plus got a very busy week, won't be staying up for late night model runs and very little time during day that I can look at models or forum but ill def try.
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:30 am

EPS inside 96 hrs now now please be right.
Brooklyn 33 Rain

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-2917600.png.a72a4e68c7a4fa3c9170d9aafd5e3a00

Can we hold the banana or will it go....banana's!!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_anom-2766400.png.4aa56470b634fea108aa86bbb19154b5

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:13 am

TWC forecast for the 22nd - Snow showers. High 27F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Gotta love long range looks. 40% chance of snow showers but getting 3-5 inches, lol. Tells ya something's there but not quite sure at this range.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:59 am

Irish wrote:TWC forecast for the 22nd - Snow showers. High 27F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Gotta love long range looks. 40% chance of snow showers but getting 3-5 inches, lol. Tells ya something's there but not quite sure at this range.

TWC is the KOD - please ignore and don't post them LOL! Laughing

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 16, 2022 11:02 am

amugs wrote:
Irish wrote:TWC forecast for the 22nd - Snow showers. High 27F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Gotta love long range looks. 40% chance of snow showers but getting 3-5 inches, lol. Tells ya something's there but not quite sure at this range.

TWC is the KOD - please ignore and don't post them LOL! Laughing
Yup do not know why people even waste their time looking. All they do is fake sensationalization stuff, i liked it back when there was john hope and Cantore was a somewhat normal weather man. The only time I will look at it is to see live footage from places storms are going on they do take good footage.
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Irish Sun Jan 16, 2022 11:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
Irish wrote:TWC forecast for the 22nd - Snow showers. High 27F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Gotta love long range looks. 40% chance of snow showers but getting 3-5 inches, lol. Tells ya something's there but not quite sure at this range.

TWC is the KOD - please ignore and don't post them LOL! Laughing
Yup do not know why people even waste their time looking.  All they do is fake sensationalization stuff, i liked it back when there was john hope and Cantore was a somewhat normal weather man.  The only time I will look at it is to see live footage from places storms are going on they do take good footage.

I've wasted my time on there because before I stumbled onto this place, I was an ignorant weather watcher and TWC is all I had. Now I know better and just use them for laughs.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:54 pm

Irish wrote:TWC forecast for the 22nd - Snow showers. High 27F. Winds N at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Gotta love long range looks. 40% chance of snow showers but getting 3-5 inches, lol. Tells ya something's there but not quite sure at this range.

TWC had me for 10-17 inches for tonight and Mondays storm 5-6 days ago.

If I net 4 inches OTG when it's all said and done tomorrow I'll consider it a win.
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by MattyICE Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:57 pm

Looks like the 6z/18z Euro will now be available on Tidbits.

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by lglickman1 Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:43 pm

Is this a reasonable setup for the 22nd-23rd? Or something not likely to come together?

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:31 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Is this a reasonable setup for the 22nd-23rd?  Or something not likely to come together?

I think the setup on the 23rd is plausible and could deliver a nice snowfall for our area, but I’m particularly interested in the 25th-28th which I’m now extending out to the 1st of February. I’m going to give these waves a deeper look tomorrow

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:04 pm

18z GFS had a monster bomb just off coast all snow especially big for LI, went sub 980 and then hooks into maine sub 970mb wow. has def potential if for real and falls in the spoken of time frames.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:02 am

Next weekend's 1/22 threat looks highly correlated to how much a trough can dig.  And that will most likely depend on how vigorous the n/s s/w is as well as the ridging that sets up between the trough.  The GOM is open for business so if it sets up right it can deliver a nice event.  Probably won't know until Wednesday if this is viable.

If we can get a strong WAR then trough can dig more and EC heights can rise easier...

Euro is most aggressive ATTM
Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Euro41

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:43 am

The next two storm threats are planned for the 22nd-23rd and 25th-27th.

January 23rd:

This one had the appearance of a potentially big system, but over the last 48 hours we have seen this threat fizzle just a little bit. Below is a look at the GFS upper air map valid for Friday the 21st. You can clearly see a trough and associated energy entering the eastern CONUS, but the trough is positively tilted and the energy is a little strung out. There's 2 reasons for that:

1. There's a very strong piece of northern energy that is cutting off over the western U.S., which is bringing the PNA down to negative. This prevents the trough over the east from consolidating the energy at the base and going neutral-negative. There's also another piece of energy over Texas that is being held back. So, we have all this upper energy being held back over western areas of the U.S. which means there's no opportunity for our northern energy to phase.

2. I did not denote it on the map, but if you look in south-central Canada near the Great Lakes we have a ridge rolling east which is also acting to disrupt the trough over the east. That's because just N&W of there we have even more pieces of upper energy coming out of the Pacific. At this time, the AO and NAO are also positive.

The end result is a strung out mess of energy over the east coast, and a surface low positioned well off the coast. So, I am not very enthused about this threat unless we can get the southern short waves over SW CONUS to eject east instead of getting held back. If that happens, and we end up seeing a phase, it could capture the trough and help bring a low up the coast. There's still time for these trends to occur. Let's see what happens over the next 2-3 days.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 23rd

January 25th-27th:

I've mentioned it earlier, but this is the time period I am favoring over the 23rd at this time. By this point, we are seeing some very interesting developments at 500mb.

1). -AO and -NAO return
2). -EPO/+PNA are emerging
3). PV is centered over the Hudson Bay

Remember that ULL I circled in the other graphic in relation to the 23rd storm? Well by the time we get to the 25th, it finally moves out of the southwest U.S. and follows the jet east-northeast. Because of the aforementioned changes aloft, there's a very good chance this southern energy meets up with northern energy to create our next storm. I won't elaborate more beyond this point, but I really do like the upper level picture. Assuming these features do not change (i.e. NAO does not trend back to positive, etc.) then I am excited about a storm.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 26th




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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:25 am

I am intrigued with weekend threat because some ingredients are there.  The issue I see with the GFS and how it differs from Euro solution is the TPV.  The GFS is much lower latitude with the TPV and kind of smashes the ridge which leads to a softer trough.  The n/s then cannot hookup with the subtropical moisture and it goes out to see.  As far as the H5 they are pretty similar...  We will need to see how that interaction with the TPV goes.  We don't want it to interfere with n/s-s/s interactions otherwise we'll be cold and dry.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Gfssub10

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:31 am

Ooof, this was close to a phase. Energy over TX ejected east-northeast and we're seeing the ridge amplify above the ULL. Not far from a coastal (this relates to the 23rd)

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:58 am



We are seeing what could be and JH doesn't go this route unless he sees the potential at a medium confidence aka like Frank

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:33 pm

Good sign here with the cold air source of the EPO. Need PNA to respond + and get some NATL help.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Fjuafg10

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:33 pm

Euro likes the D5 weekend threat.  IMO the big differences I see are the Atlantic ridge is more robust on the Euro and allows the height to rise and bring storm up the coast and the western ridge is more intact as there is less interference from the TPV.  This allows the n/s trough to dig and hook up with the subtropical moisture. This may very may not verify, but pieces are there.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Euroso10

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:40 pm

I will say this too. This last storm has much better height fields than were originally forecasted. Ridging in NE carved out a path of minimal resistance. That was seen on the models about D5.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:41 pm

Money shot. That is a beautiful 500 mb evolution peeps. This would be a BIGLY storm ....if it happens. Friday into Sat.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-vort500_z500-2885200.png.7481ae68c5d18673bcfd9c2429f70b14

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:27 pm

EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

takenback

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Post by Irish Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:35 pm

amugs wrote:Money shot. That is a beautiful 500 mb evolution peeps. This would be a BIGLY storm ....if it happens. Friday into Sat.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 28 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-vort500_z500-2885200.png.7481ae68c5d18673bcfd9c2429f70b14
 
And here we go...  are we at serious tracking mode yet?

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

takenback

Many corroborating Ens members as well.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO just dropped a Roidzilla over the area this weekend

takenback
Back in the king Euro days I’d be jacked, but since it’s upgrade the model has been inconsistent. The 12z run peaked my interest and it’s a plausible scenario, but I’m not all in until I see more model support.
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