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December 2021 Obs and Discussion

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hyde345
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
docstox12
jmanley32
aiannone
frank 638
essexcountypete
Frank_Wx
weatherwatchermom
dkodgis
rb924119
algae888
sroc4
amugs
heehaw453
SENJsnowman
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:33 am

The Atlantic ridge on the 06Z GFS a little less robust. Each successive run seems to get more relaxed and its surface map continues to take a turn towards other guidance like Euro and CAN. If the ridge is like what Euro and CAN depict then the storm can more easily escape OTS. I will wait for 00Z and better yet 12Z tomorrow before I go one way or the other.

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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:26 am

Great example of how even the ugliest 500mb view could still produce a snowy outcome for our area.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_16

There’s enough interaction with the northern and southern jet to pop a low along the coast, despite the lack of western ridging. However, I can easily see how the south and east scenario plays out given the lack of amplification across the CONUS. The critical player in all of this is the HP to the north. Keep him stationary and it forces consolidation along the coast.

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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:05 am

Seperate thread to discuss model runs for this threat.  ??December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1f600



Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:11 am

Concur.
We won't no true details until we get full sampling tonight IMO. Mondays systems plays a crucial role into how the secondary storm turns out. Drag the boundary South to the Delmarvaish region game on drag it to SNJ more N&W. That to me is the Playa here.
But those juiced up GFS runs and GEFS runs yesterday were What a Face What a Face

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:52 am

Strong Cold Front moves through around 6-7PM - rain and strong gusty winds - 40mph gusts possible. This sets up Wednesdays system. IF clouds break these clouds for a couple of hours we can hit DOC's favorite decade - 60!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:34 pm

Those N&W should be on the lookout for additional wintry precip on Friday morning. Some models showing snow showers mixed with sleet/freezing rain.

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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Those N&W should be on the lookout for additional wintry precip on Friday morning. Some models showing snow showers mixed with sleet/freezing rain.
Sunday into Monday morning might be a doozy with a strong anafront/LP from the Southern Apps. IF GFS is correct winds upwards of 40-45mph with heavy rains and and then a 20 degree temperature drop in about an hours to snows on the back side.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:04 pm

Geez Louise the wind is rocking out there. 55 mph. Temp is 51 but man o man the wind is prominent. Roaring.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:39 pm

House is making those "ooooo" noises and the garbage cans are on the move. Winds are kicking.
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:41 pm

Trees down in the next town over as winds just kicked up a few minutes ago.

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:43 pm

Wow heavy wind driven rain 🌧 now

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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by aiannone Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:53 pm

Wind just starting to pick up, gusting to 20mph
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:06 pm

Wow, those winds came fast and fierce, had to be 50mph. Totally destroyed the garbage, the neighborhood is littered with everyones garbage and the garbage men will NOT pick it up. If a bag or boxes are even 5 inches from the drop spots they wont take it. I mean everywhere yards, and street is more garbage and boxes than pavement, disgusting. usually I like wind but this just made the area look like a toxic wasteland. now we need a decent amount of snow to cover it up until it eventually decomposes or the street cleaner MAY be able to pick some of it up.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:10 pm

frank 638 wrote:Wow heavy wind driven rain 🌧 now
ya, is it garbage night in the bronx? As I posted yonkers look like a dump just got poured over it.... : (
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:16 pm

amugs wrote:Strong Cold Front moves through around 6-7PM - rain and strong gusty winds - 40mph gusts possible. This sets up Wednesdays system. IF clouds break these clouds for a couple of hours we can hit DOC's favorite decade - 60!

Bump

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:15 am

Did I sleep through this wind? I don’t believe any of you

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Did I sleep through this wind? I don’t believe any of you
Are you joking? You must go to bed early if you did not hear the gust front, it was around 8:30-9:15 here so would been before that for you.
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:44 am

Very light snowflakes down at Exit 80 of the garden state parkway. Yaaay!!!😁❄😁❄😁❄

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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 08, 2021 5:16 pm

Maybe Zoo??

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 FGHWLviXsAMO9k1.jpeg.3c93878f70e84660cdd041cf30e4bde1

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:04 pm

amugs wrote:Maybe Zoo??

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 FGHWLviXsAMO9k1.jpeg.3c93878f70e84660cdd041cf30e4bde1


Would love it! Just watching the radar now, seeing a few lines of snow showers making it's way here.

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:14 pm

Been snowing here since 7PM at 34*

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:14 pm

Saturday wind gusts since it will verify due to the strong cold front moving through after the warm surge of air.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 FGMRR5tXIAQxpe9?format=jpg&name=medium

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:04 pm

No torch for NWNJ for sure - Sat Sunday yes but the rest of the week - AN yes but no torch

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 FGMqOWoXsAICj0W?format=png&name=medium

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:45 pm

amugs wrote:No torch for NWNJ for sure - Sat Sunday yes but the rest of the week - AN yes but no torch

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 FGMqOWoXsAICj0W?format=png&name=medium
Yuck I know it’s only for one week but I hope we make it Up for it

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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:42 pm

Wow, has anyone else ever seen them go to TORCON 7? And this will be rolling through at night!

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Torcon10

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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