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December 2021 Obs and Discussion

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hyde345
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
docstox12
jmanley32
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frank 638
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weatherwatchermom
dkodgis
rb924119
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sroc4
amugs
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:23 am

Happy Meteorological Winter everyone! Glad to see some flakes lately to get us in the winter mood!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:55 pm

34* and overcast here in Albany. The forecast for tomorrow here is 48* and rain. Mad

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:52 am

Thankful for a mild day today, going to decorate the outside of the house!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:24 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Thankful for a mild day today, going to decorate the outside of the house!

It looks like 10-14 day forecast is going to be quite mild indeed. I see a 61* high temp looming for next week imby, might even get there today! The avg high at GSP Exit 80 for the next 2 weeks is about 50-52*. The avg low looks to be 38-40. So, i figure to have plenty of opportunity to pursue my other other outdoor passion- yep, smoking meats!!!!

I absolutely loved both the conclusions and the tone of rbs latest posts. For both the long and short range, Ray is just gifted at sniffing out the snowstorm killing factors and conditions when they are present. So, if he ain't sniffing any out, and in fact LIKES what he sees super long range- then I gotta give a little WOOT WOOT! as I bide my time.

Last thought that some of you can relate to- I'm going to visit the fam in Florida in the late December. The idea of missing a big snowstorm like that- esp with how hard the big one's are to score down here, I just can't imagine.

(Ray, sorry for talking about you like you aren't here lol)


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:24 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:42 am

Regarding the threat on 12/8 there is very good antecedent air mass for snow especially for early December. The mid-level storm needs to stay far enough SE of the area to mitigate the WAA The best chance for this right now is NW of I-95. I liked what I saw on the EPS last night, but it's too far away for much enthusiasm from me. If I go by the H5 then this should be a quick flip to rain most everywhere. But sometimes even in bad patterns you can squeak something out as the pattern doesn't always dictate the individual event. Let's see if models can get better consensus in the next few days.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:18 am

Models still continue to suggest an SWFE (overrunning event) is possible next Tuesday night/Wednesday. If the short waves remain separate and weak then consolidation most likely occurs offshore and it should pass SE of the area. I don't see a big SE ridge that will nudge this inland without early consolidation. These SWFE's w/out a really good high to the north pumping in fresh cold air won't favor coastal plain. This is why the AO is so important. When you have a negative arctic oscillation then you get those 1030mb+ highs to park over Quebec and work their magic.

I would think no snow accumulation for coastal plain and there is a potential for at least a few inches north of rt 80 away from the coast. That is the area I think that could be interesting on this one.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:14 am

Roberto does a good job of explaining - the Monday system we need to dig a bit more and drag the cold air further down and keep the 2nd storm weak. If we can get that 1st storm to do some magic then I believe Rt 78 N sees their first accumulating snows of 1" plus - HV see 2-4" I'd say but NNJ 1-2". It may ultimately change to rain but the fact we are descending from a cold air mass pattern is as Ray alluded to in the LR 17-18 esque winter.



PS - the calls for blowtorch that some are making especially on line in the cease pools of SM need to quell their hype if you read some of these as models have kicked the can a bit - I do expect AN after this pattern goes to wayward but not to the degree some are portraying. Canada and the Arctic will be building a glacier bodes well down the road IMO. Also, Ural/Scandinavian HP and MJO phase 6 heat flux will aid in EAMT (East Asian Mountain Torque) engendering a knock around of the PV and displacement of the cold air baring any other developments.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:54 am

GEFS colder than OP only 96 hours to go LOL!
December 2021 Obs and Discussion FFsNV7kXsAgfWvN?format=png&name=medium

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:11 pm

Take look at the CMC...woof!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:Take  look at the CMC...woof!

Let me be clear here. I DONT think this is how this plays out, BUT if we wanted to see the coast plain have any chance this is about the only way it happen in this pattern. Timing is everything. In order to see how tuesaday to wed plays out one of many key factors will be the system and frontal bondary that swings through late Monday into early Tuesday.

Where the boundary is, and how far north and west the system that brings the front through will play an integral part in where the HP to the north sets up that will try and hold the cold. Again the pattern as a whole does not lean in our favor, both Pac and Atlantic side but if you have been doing this long enough you know it can def snow is shitty patterns when the timing is just right.

Carry on

We TRACK!! What a Face


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:36 pm

12Z UKIE is keeping the storm much further offshore similar to 12Z GDPS with a less consolidate weaker storm and much colder solution. 12Z GFS energy is more consolidated and tracks overhead with a warm solution. Still 120 hours out and the verification probably lies somewhere in the middle. The antecedent air mass should be decent.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:15 pm


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:05 pm

amugs wrote:

I disagree with what he says here Mugs.  If you expand out to the NA view you can clearly see where the HP is placed.  IMHO the placement of the HP AND strength of the lobe extending into the Atlantic on the GFS and weaker western flank vs CMC and how much stronger the HP is on the western flank on the CMC and centered further west compared to GFS is the difference and what allows the western track on the GFS compared to the weaker more southern and eastern soln on the CMC.   Look at the GFS surface map he posted compared to the CMC.  Path of least resistance.  Based on where the wake and confluence of the Monday eve system are near greenland is positioned, the HP to our N on the surface map is right where it should be on the GFS and CMC respectively.
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs_5011
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs14
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Cmc10


December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs_z500_vort_namer_22
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_22
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gem_mslpaNorm_namer_22

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:36 am

Many op models showing a fairly stationary 1030mb+ High parked over Southern Quebec. I don't think this is going to be suppressed and OTS with a decent WAR. That gives the coastal plain a chance at some snow if that high pressure is correct. The antecedent air mass is good for early December on this and I can tell you that high pressure CAD is often under modelled. It will depend on how far away from the coast the storm consolidates. Once again though NW of 95 are in a threat for several inches of snow especially I-80 and above.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:23 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Many op models showing a fairly stationary 1030mb+ High parked over Southern Quebec.  I don't think this is going to be suppressed and OTS with a decent WAR.  That gives the coastal plain a chance at some snow if that high pressure is correct.  The antecedent air mass is good for early December on this and I can tell you that high pressure CAD is often under modelled.  It will depend on how far away from the coast the storm consolidates.  Once again though NW of 95 are in a threat for several inches of snow especially I-80 and above.


Looking at 500 you can see why that makes sense and why the GFS still has the HP retreating quickly, and is warmest soln, the Euro is the most suppressed and coldest soln, and the CMC is in between.  

Here are the three global models at 500mb on approach and their respective surface depiction for the same time stamp.  All valid for 15z Wed, or 10am Wed.  Euro, CMC, and GFS.  

The set up is such that a boundary layer will set up after the Late Mond system passes NW and drags the front through.  Along the frontal boundary weak LP will develop,   black circle #1, and ride along it.  On the GFS you can see the result of #3 so far east and # 2 so far S&W relative to one another and the fact that #1 is out in front of #2 allows the boundary layer to set up    furthest N of all solns.  

The euro on the other hand is the other side of the soln cone where the proximity of both #3 to #2, forces the boundary much further S&E.  

The positioning of #1, #2, an #3 relative to each other is in between the GFS an Euro.  

December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs-de29
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gem-al12
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Ecmwf-70

December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs-de30
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gem-al13
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Ecmwf-71


So if you look at the GFS as the current warmest soln, and the Euro as the coldest soln, very very commonly the final soln lies somewhere in between which def bodes well for most of us to see some white gold at least, and areas N&W in line for accumulation.  

Just briefly below I expanded the 500mb view to see the location of where the system that passes Mondayends up.  Again, GFS furthest N which allows our HP to escape faster, hence the warmer soln.  Euro is the furthest S, and CMC in between.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs-de31
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gem-al14
December 2021 Obs and Discussion Ecmwf-72

Im getting a little excited.


WE TRACK!!!!   What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:24 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:24 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Many op models showing a fairly stationary 1030mb+ High parked over Southern Quebec.  I don't think this is going to be suppressed and OTS with a decent WAR.  That gives the coastal plain a chance at some snow if that high pressure is correct.  The antecedent air mass is good for early December on this and I can tell you that high pressure CAD is often under modelled.  It will depend on how far away from the coast the storm consolidates.  Once again though NW of 95 are in a threat for several inches of snow especially I-80 and above.
Yes heehaw  Love where that high is sitting.  If you take a model consensus right now with the GFS further North and the euro uk met  Further South it looks like we could see our 1st accumulating snow of the season for many of us.  I know many will say with such a  Positive AO And neutral to slightly positive NAO it can't snow in the I 95 corridor but that is not what happened from 2010 through 2020 when those 2 indices were predominantly positive
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:12 pm

Gfs making significant improvements at 500mb. If 00z holds and euro/cmc hold its on like Donkey Kong

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:50 pm

18Z GFS is what dreams are made of. The storm consolidates fast enough offshore where it stops the WAA hence you get a very significant snowfall for the area. The high pressure also pumps in cold air at the mid levels. This would your absolute best case scenario. I wouldn't buy into any models until tomorrow night at the earliest. But I am starting to believe coastal plain can see some accumulation which for early December in this pattern would be noteworthy. Caution is my best word right now.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:58 pm

(Sighs heavily)……Fineeeeeeeeee, I guess I’ll formulate some kind of opinion on this event, since everybody seems to be excited for it lmao Short video discussion coming up for those interested.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:35 pm

Sorry for the delay, folks, but I apparently had to upgrade my computer's OS to be able to use my Google Drive in order to upload my video discussion lol Upload is currently progress, so I will post the shared link when it's done. Please note, however, that with additional time, it should also render in HD, but the initial video should still be of passable quality. Thank you for your patience!!

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:38 am

Ok, gang, as promised, please visit the below link to watch my discussion. I actually kept it reasonably short this time - only 13 minutes!!! haha

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gonDCUaWVuA3Grk8Khi_qgno0tRQHRm5/view?usp=sharing

Anyway, a few things that I forgot to mention during the closing comments:

1. Another aspect that I don't like is how far west the main ridge axis starts - it's well off the west coast, which means that the approximate location of the long wave trough axis and associated pivot point will be located over the central portion of North America rather than over the Great Lakes, which is our preferred axis. So with the ridge axis being so far west, it puts us in a dangerous spot to allow further expansion of the Southeast Ridge.

2. If we lose too much mid-level energy during the trough split, then this will pretty much end up as nothing more than a harmless frontal passage, as the heights will remain flat with less dynamical forcing for ascent, and a development much too far offshore.

3. It is my experience that when you have so many factors supporting the thermal component, regardless of whether it's a cold or warm signal, the models underestimate it, and especially in these SWFE-type events and/or Ohio Valley runners, the warmth significantly outpaces guidance and the transition to mixed precipitation types/rain occurs much sooner than modeled. Aside from the issues I discussed in the above video, I have other indications that this would again be the case, assuming that the ideas presented prove to be true.

For good order, please note that the ideas presented here are all based on data up to and including today's 12z suites. I don't think that I clearly stated that in my introduction haha

I hope you all enjoy the video, and as usual, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them!!


Last edited by rb924119 on Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:25 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:47 am

Now that I've had a chance to glance at tonight's 00z suites coming in, I like the trends aloft even though the surface maps are not yet where I think they will end up.

00z GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly trend:

December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gfs-en11

00z GEM/CMC 500mb height anomaly trend:

December 2021 Obs and Discussion Gem_z510

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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:25 am

RB thanks for the video and discussion. I actually understood it. Highs and lows create the front, and they wrestle with the front getting pushed toward us BUT... . Thanks for bringing the discussion as so many here do in a way I can follow. It looks like if snow comes, it will be light enough and follow a tight path for some board members to be happy, and some sad. It is nice to see the engagement by those who know weather inside out. CP will have to come out for this one.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:48 am

Great video rb, thanks! It was easy to understand and very interesting to watch!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:05 am

RB love the video(not the possible outcome)...was easy to understand all the technical information with your explanations!!
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