NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion

+19
hyde345
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
docstox12
jmanley32
aiannone
frank 638
essexcountypete
Frank_Wx
weatherwatchermom
dkodgis
rb924119
algae888
sroc4
amugs
heehaw453
SENJsnowman
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
23 posters

Page 4 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 19, 2021 6:50 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Normal Christmas Day high low in the HV is 36/18 right now we’re looking at a Christmas Day high of 46. I’m really growing tired of these crappy December’s. 1/4 of winter down the drain and unfortunately my favorite winter month which more and more seems to succumb to the negatives of our changing climate. December’s just not what it used to be.

Will not be posting much this year as I just find these patterns that we get stuck in for what seems like an eternity just frustrate the Hell out of me. Hopefully the January flip happens but not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and and Happy New Year to all.

Good to see you back my good man, the board was about to organize a search party for you.Glad you are ok and agree with the frustrating pattern as well.I posted in banter what a front end winter is like (1960-1961) which is not this year, but , remember, hope is a good thing.The best Christmas and New Years for you and your loved ones.Our gift will be if that pattern lights up like a candle and gives us megasnows in the LHV.

OK,Damian, you owe me on that "when CP returns date.I had Dec 3 marked down, you were in late November.Stake me 10 bucks on that poker game some day and we will be square,LOL.BTW, as per your post above, if I came home lster than 10, my wife would bar the doors,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7369
Reputation : 218
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 71
Location : Monroe NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by SENJsnowman Sun Dec 19, 2021 7:25 am

Great to hear from you cp! Now, the missing piece to a winter wonderland is here! One of my professors in college told us about the CP rule. It’s like the opposite of Groundhog Day: Winter weather officially starts 2-3 weeks after CP’s first post of the winter season! Sweet!

SENJsnowman

Posts : 877
Reputation : 60
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 19, 2021 8:19 am

Good to hear from you CP. The pattern does suck, but the good news is we will be breaking out of it shortly after New Years. Some snow threats even possible before then.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20435
Reputation : 321
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 19, 2021 9:21 am

AO is already in negative territory at -1 sigma. Projected to go to to -3 sigma by NYD. Let's see how long the ground remains bare with this rapid drop in what I would say is the most important indicator or wintry weather chances. To put it into perspective the AO was +3 sigma and we all can see the results of that.

heehaw453

Posts : 2100
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

sroc4 and CPcantmeasuresnow like this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:17 am

Glad to see you CP.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7219
Reputation : 296
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:10 am

16.2 was low this morning with excellent radiational cooling effect. This is the coldest reading of the season to date.

heehaw453

Posts : 2100
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:18 pm

19 for my low - and boy did it feel like winter!!

Xmas Miracle - reel this in please!!
LOL
December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 FHERsNNWYAIDnvZ?format=png&name=small

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13119
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:25 pm

@amugs wrote:19 for my low - and boy did it feel like winter!!

Xmas Miracle - reel this in please!!
LOL
December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 FHERsNNWYAIDnvZ?format=png&name=small
Please That will be the best Xmas 🎄

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2449
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 38
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:27 pm

29* for a low this morning
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3107
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:19 pm

This is a hot mess with that PNA the way it is for Christmas morning.  But the blocking and that 50/50 low (will be an intense storm that clobbers Maine) make me think this SE ridge may not be so strong.  If the ridge is just a bit more relaxed the precip can come into much colder air.  I would say those NW of 95 keep on eye on it.  AO is also almost 2 sigma in the neg territory.  This is late December and it has snowed with worse looks than that.  

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs36

heehaw453

Posts : 2100
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:40 pm

Although snow showers are possible Thursday night into early Christmas Eve, it appears Christmas Day is going to bring overcast and rainy conditions. Not the type of weather I was hoping for Sad

There’s a chance the rain turns to snow N&W of NYC going into Sunday. There’s also a slim chance this wave trends further south and N&W stays all snow, but I’m putting those odds at very low right now.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20435
Reputation : 321
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:30 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Although snow showers are possible Thursday night into early Christmas Eve, it appears Christmas Day is going to bring overcast and rainy conditions. Not the type of weather I was hoping for Sad

There’s a chance the rain turns to snow N&W of NYC going into Sunday. There’s also a slim chance this wave trends further south and N&W stays all snow, but I’m putting those odds at very low right now.

Frank we need a sad face button! if we push dislike I feel we are criticizing the post..lol
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3107
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

brownie and dkodgis like this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:35 am

Hearing of icy conditions at and above (North) of I 84 this morning. Anyone confirm?

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13119
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:48 am

@amugs wrote:Hearing of icy conditions at and above (North) of I 84 this morning. Anyone confirm?

Some schools in Monticello and that area had delayed openings, heard Washingtonville area was bad too.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  6.25"

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4470
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 60
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:51 am

It got bad last night. This morning here in northern Orange County, a two-hour delay. Icy. 84 coming into Orange from PA was shut down overnight for a while. Still icy on the blacktop. Roads here this morning are hit and miss. A glaze. Funny to see the dog skating while trying to walk
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1664
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:45 am

No ice here in Monroe NY, may have been light rain.Cloudy now.Interesting weather for up here Friday night-Sunday morning, snow, sleet, rain.Hopefully ground gets coated for Christmas Day.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7369
Reputation : 218
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 71
Location : Monroe NY

amugs likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:47 am

This is just incredible Nature's Fury !!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13119
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:41 pm

This won't be clean or a good setup.  However there are a lot of shortwaves running across the country that have some colder air to work with as the AO continues its negative trend.  How much cold air bleeds into the area and stays long enough is a question but NW of I95 will probably see some snow between Christmas and NYD.  I don't expect anything more than light event.  Possible coastal plain gets a bit too.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Euro31

heehaw453

Posts : 2100
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:30 pm

Come to Poppa!!
December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Resize13

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13119
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by hyde345 Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:51 pm

This winter has sucked so far but I'm hoping for better things by 2nd week of January.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 952
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:01 pm

@hyde345 wrote:This winter has sucked so far but I'm hoping for better things by 2nd week of January.

We said the same in 2014-15, last year as well and 2013-14. Trust in Rb!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13119
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

SENJsnowman and phil155 like this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:24 am

I was looking at snow tables for the northeast and it's amazing how consistently below 43.5N latitude crap patterns just destroy norms. But actually above that latitude snowfall is fairly close to average. It's all about tolerance to less than ideal synoptic conditions that makes the difference I guess.

heehaw453

Posts : 2100
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:01 pm

Looking like the same pissant, annoying setup late tonight where moisture freezes and a glaze of ice suddenly appears.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1664
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:10 pm

If Euro is right this is probably the biggest snowfall IMBY of the season.  Now if it was November 23 I'd have no issue with that.  NW of I95 surface probably cold enough to support a dusting.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf11

heehaw453

Posts : 2100
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by hyde345 Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:47 pm

Looking forward to up to an inch tonight. Beggars can't be choosers.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 952
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

dkodgis likes this post

Back to top Go down

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum