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December 2021 Obs and Discussion

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hyde345
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
docstox12
jmanley32
aiannone
frank 638
essexcountypete
Frank_Wx
weatherwatchermom
dkodgis
rb924119
algae888
sroc4
amugs
heehaw453
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Math23x7
Dunnzoo
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December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: December 2021 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:17 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Wow, has anyone else ever seen them go to TORCON 7? And this will be rolling through at night!

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Torcon10

Yikes - you have a possible blizzard just 250 NW of there as well. That is why it is at TORCON 7 - very cold air and tropicalish warm air clashing bigly in Met winter recipe for disaster

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:49 pm

If you loop the GFS you will find the upper Midwest gets slammed with back to back to back winter storms over the next couple of weeks. -WPO patterns typically deliver for that area during this time of year.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_ncus_12

We’re looking at some rain Saturday and then we’ll enter a bit of a dry spell.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:If you loop the GFS you will find the upper Midwest gets slammed with back to back to back winter storms over the next couple of weeks. -WPO patterns typically deliver for that area during this time of year.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_ncus_12

We’re looking at some rain Saturday and then we’ll enter a bit of a dry spell.

Coming attractions to a theater near you, perhaps?? Wink

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:14 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:If you loop the GFS you will find the upper Midwest gets slammed with back to back to back winter storms over the next couple of weeks. -WPO patterns typically deliver for that area during this time of year.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_ncus_12

We’re looking at some rain Saturday and then we’ll enter a bit of a dry spell.

Coming attractions to a theater near you, perhaps?? Wink

That WPO is trying real hard on the GEFS to slide into -EPO territory…

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:If you loop the GFS you will find the upper Midwest gets slammed with back to back to back winter storms over the next couple of weeks. -WPO patterns typically deliver for that area during this time of year.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_ncus_12

We’re looking at some rain Saturday and then we’ll enter a bit of a dry spell.

Coming attractions to a theater near you, perhaps?? Wink

That WPO is trying real hard on the GEFS to slide into -EPO territory…

I replied to mugs’s post in the Long Range thread, but even if it does get into the EPO domain, it’s not gonna benefit us much because we still have the -PNA/southeast ridge couplet to contend with. Even if we get the -NAO to retrograde far enough westward, I still don’t think it’s going to do much for us, but that would help New England greatly. The large-scale pattern is not ready to drop that -PNA yet, but it’s working on it. We won’t get it done this trip I don’t think, but the next time I think we don’t just put a crack in the wall; the whole thing comes down. Just my opinion, though.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:29 pm

Agreed…let’s see how far east the wave across the tropical pacific gets. A phase 8 MJO should greatly help the PNA area.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Nina_8_gen_ok

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:34 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Agreed…let’s see how far east the wave across the tropical pacific gets. A phase 8 MJO should greatly help the PNA area.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Nina_8_gen_ok

It’s gonna take time, but I think it gets there, and then MULTIPLE factors start aligning from there, and that’s what’ll be the catalyst to change the whole pattern.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:52 pm

Reminds me of the winter of 1964-1965, when December was mild (60 degree high on Christmas Day in Central Park). Winter went into gear January 1965 with cold and over 15 inches of snow in multiple storms at Central Park.
Jan2-3 1965-Snow,sleet, FR
Jan 10 1965-Heavy snow.6 inches in CP and 10 inches in suburbs
Jan 16 1965-Heavy snow with near blizzard conditions
Jan 23-24 1965-3 to 5 inches snow, sleet, FR

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:56 pm

The Negative PNA and NAO, 93-94 had this set up and we had ice n snowstorms galore. Not saying a repeat but it can surely happen. I do agree we need the PNA BUT even with a neutral AO with this pattern will help press the flow just enough sometimes.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:02 pm

amugs wrote:The Negative PNA and NAO, 93-94 had this set up and we had ice n snowstorms galore. Not saying a repeat but it can surely happen. I do agree we need the PNA BUT even with a neutral AO with this pattern will help press the flow just enough sometimes.

Mugsy, two epic winters 93-94 and 95-96! Wow, what memories.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:51 am

Man it was mild yesterday. Cooler today, but still looking at temps in the 50s all week long

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 12, 2021 2:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Man it was mild yesterday. Cooler today, but still looking at temps in the 50s all week long
Perfect IMBY post right here peeps by yours truly:
Not until about 4:30 here my man - we stayed in the 50-52* range from 12 till then and low clouds and fog, then it warmed as night fell to 62* here.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:16 pm

Beautiful day.  51 degrees and completely clear skies.

This is the pattern we're at now and the snow cover tells the story.  Halifax, NS had 1' of snow last week and and is devoid of snow now.  You just don't see this kind of paltry snow cover often for mid December in NNE and upstate NY.

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Snowco15

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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:42 pm

Sat might be shaping up for a front end overrunning type event for those N&W. HP north of the GL conts to trend a tad stronger. CAD typically is under modeled. There is enough here too keep an eye on.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:55 pm

I saw some op modelling showing this possibility for Saturday. There is a transfer of energy but the mid-level energy passing through Buffalo makes me think more WAA than currently shown also the antecedent air mass is pretty bad. I don't like this for anyone south of Worcester. We'll see.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:24 pm

WOW!

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 12152010

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:11 am

There is potential for freezing rain or sleet N&W of NYC on Saturday. I’ve kept the SCI low at 5% and will likely remove it after tomorrow, because I don’t see accumulating snows in the cards for CPK and the metro area. We’ll have to continue waiting…

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42

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Post by frank 638 Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:05 am

Math23x7 wrote:WOW!

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 12152010
Unbelievable this is probably one of the most worst December we ever had in a long time . Certain trees Has leaves on them .just frustrating it’s almost Christmas and it’s still warm where is winter 🥶

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:34 pm

Euro trended colder for Saturday’s storm

December 2021 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 98f59610

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Post by dkodgis Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:17 pm

NWS overnight for my area:

New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday and sleet before 3am, then a slight chance of rain, snow, and sleet between 3am and 4am, then a slight chance of rain and snow after 4am. Low around 33. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Add it all together = maybe close to an inch. It could be the start of something. I can dream...
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:31 am

37 degrees and light rain.Don't think we had any frozen precip with this.Anyway, even if it is not a White Christmas, the temps will be seasonally cold to make it feel like it.Christmas 1964 was 60 degrees.That one was a bummer.
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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:00 pm

34 right now. Flurrying. Uneventful unless Doc comes up for a card game. Doc, I promise I won’t keep you out past 10 pm.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:41 am

46* and heavy fog....had husband stand at back door with me while I waited for the dog....the movies the fog and the mist were on my mind...😬
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:50 am

Normal Christmas Day high low in the HV is 36/18 right now we’re looking at a Christmas Day high of 46. I’m really growing tired of these crappy December’s. 1/4 of winter down the drain and unfortunately my favorite winter month which more and more seems to succumb to the negatives of our changing climate. December’s just not what it used to be.

Will not be posting much this year as I just find these patterns that we get stuck in for what seems like an eternity just frustrate the Hell out of me. Hopefully the January flip happens but not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and and Happy New Year to all.
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Post by Radz Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:23 am

It’s officially winter when I see you post CP, glad to see you back even if we are stuck in a crappy pattern currently, hoping we turn the tides as we progress into the new year.
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