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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 01, 2022 9:25 am

Happy New Year Fam and let's get this party started right!

Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!

From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps

January 2022 Obs & Discussions MSE.gif.719903aa19d214088c77fcffe4b6f2b2

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:17 am

Happy New Year fellow weather enthusiasts!

06Z EPS.  I like this look even better than yesterday for the Friday 1/7 threat.  I think a baroclinic zone will form to our south and give us a shot at something and you can see the deepest surface pressure at the Delmarva.  The banana high rams in the cold air and the PNA is workable.  Nothing significant, but moderate event is possible.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions Eps24
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Eps211

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:41 am

GFS is definitely trying to give our coastal folks something with an active s/w energy.  Surface temperatures support accumulations right to the beaches.  I'll have to beat over the head with this solution to believe it personally.  But mugs has been on this possibility so let's see.


January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gfs41
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gfs211
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gfs310

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:00 pm

12/7 threat.  Damn...  12Z GEFS agrees that's a classic snowstorm look IMO.  Still day 5+ so just have to see where the baroclinic zone sets up shop.  Yes it could miss us, but i don't think it will be too far north.  

January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gefs110
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gefs210

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:41 pm

heehaw453 wrote:GFS is definitely trying to give our coastal folks something with an active s/w energy.  Surface temperatures support accumulations right to the beaches.  I'll have to beat over the head with this solution to believe it personally.  But mugs has been on this possibility so let's see.


January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gfs41
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gfs211
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Gfs310

Yeah GFS just doesnt want to give up on a 1-2" event for my general region along the immediate coast.  That said H5 at 12z did look to take a step back from prev runs, so Im concerned it may be only 1-2 runs away from the surface falling in line with pretty much every other piece of guidance and keeping the coast dry.  Again until I see other guidance either expand its precip shield a tad further  N or  shift the SLP further N I remain highly skeptical.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:55 pm

And the 12Z Euro op shows the potential of this 1/7 storm. Don't get caught up in r/s lines at this point it's just the operational run is now seeing what its ensembles have been barking at. It really depends on where that baroclinic zone sets up, but when you have banana high setting up I'm going with it being pushed far enough offshore to work for us. It may be a question of too far offshore. Whatever the case is this is the best look I've seen by far so far this season.

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Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:10 pm

Really think the one to watch is the storm on the 7th. Don't think anybody in the area gets more than flurries from Monday's system. GFS seems to be on it's own with northward extent of precip.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:02 pm

18Z GFS pretty dramatic change at the H5 for being this close in. Anyone buying it? Basically getting significant snows past Pt Pleasant, NJ.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:05 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS pretty dramatic change at the H5 for being this close in.  Anyone buying it?  Basically getting significant snows past Pt Pleasant, NJ.

My son is in a hockey jamboree all day so I’m mobile so can’t really analyze details but it certainly looks like Gfs is in a bar fight against euro cmc and Nam with its back against the wall. Bless the gfs’ heart it keeps throwing punches

January 2022 Obs & Discussions 9589c410

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:07 pm

It's getting late in the game for these kind of changes. Either it's on to something or this further tarnishes its already tarnished reputation.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:18 pm

GFS is a mauling for Thursday night 1/6-7. Negatively tilted 500 mb trough with very cold temps at all levels. Very well situated baroclinic zone with a beautiful banana high indicative of how you get your best snow storms around here. If that solution was to verify I believe Frank's lexicon is the "G" word.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:20 pm

heehaw453 wrote:It's getting late in the game for these kind of changes.  Either it's on to something or this further tarnishes its already tarnished reputation.  

Rgem came north too.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:32 pm

It's absolutely fascinating. Just looked at Dover DE and NWS has little or no snow accumulation on Sunday night/Monday morning. 18Z GFS just pumped out 15" for that locale and 9" up to AC. I realize this is out of most of the forum area, but come on what is going on with the GFS?






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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:55 pm

I don’t know heehaw, it looks like there might be more to it than just a wayward GFS. Canadian dropped a 6 spot on the Delmarva as well. In fact, it’s done that on 2 of the last 3 runs. 32k NAM has been bee-lining for the coast 4 straight runs also. Just based on reading the surface maps, I think we still have some time to go really for the Delmarva and points further north to get more model agreement and improvements. Especially since a day or two ago, this storm was Sun night/early Mon morning. Now it looks to be coming in much later, around noon time on Monday.

That’s just my very untrained and very biased thinking/hopes.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:59 pm

You’ve been so loyal to this potential heehaw!! Don’t give up now man!! At least keep hope alive thru the late night runs. ha ha. But seriously this system has windshield wipered quite a bit in the last 3-4 days…

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 6:33 pm

I want everyone to recall I believe it was a Philadelphia eagles playoff game a few years back, where they were forecast for like 1” and they ended up with like 9”. Field was inundated. My back yard ended up with like 6” and we were forecast for like a coating. Models only picked up on it inside 48. Not saying somethylike that is happening to that degree but.....there is enough of a shift to not dismiss the gfs.

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Post by crippo84 Sat Jan 01, 2022 6:52 pm

sroc4 wrote:I want everyone to recall I believe it was a Philadelphia eagles playoff game a few years back, where they were forecast for like 1” and they ended up with like 9”. Field was inundated. My back yard ended up with like 6” and we were forecast for like a coating. Models only picked up on it inside 48. Not saying somethylike that is happening to that degree but.....there is enough of a shift to not dismiss the gfs.

They were playing the Detroit Lions. Insanely fun game to watch!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:00 pm

I’ve been in Florida since Tuesday and not returning until Friday, but from the looks of it seems like lots of rain has fallen over the area.

Models are divided about whether there will be snow on Monday. GFS paints 1-3 inches of snow S&E of NYC, and 2-4 inches for SNJ. NAM and CMC show virtually nothing. Wave spacing seems to be the issue here. Probably fair to say GFS is overdoing the second wave a little bit. For now, realize the risk for snow S&E of NYC including NYC itself is there Monday morning for 1-3 inches.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:30 pm

18Z Euro was a little deeper and a jog north by 50 miles or so on the ULL. I guess with 36+ hours out there is time for smaller corrections to add the necessary 75-100 miles north to affect larger areas. It pretty much has to be every run getting better from here on out. No time for give backs...

January 2022 Obs & Discussions Euro34


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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:37 pm

Euro almost never makes huge adjustments from run to run, but rather slow steady fine tuning type incremental adjustments.  

Its going to be hard to ignore the trends here folks.  If you live anywhere in this circle a nice little appetizer may be on the menu.  00z should be interesting.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions Map_110



It could still be the wipers, and tonight and tomorow we tick back S&E, but.......(00z-06z-12z-18z)

January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-76
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-77
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf_84
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-78
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-79
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-80
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-81
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-82


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by phil155 Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:38 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro was a little deeper and a jog north by 50 miles or so on the ULL.  I guess with 36+ hours out there is time for smaller corrections to add the necessary 75-100 miles north to affect larger areas.  It pretty much has to be every run getting better from here on out.  No time for give backs...

January 2022 Obs & Discussions Euro34


So your saying there is a chance 🤔

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:00 pm

One more check mark making me think these trends are real.  The jet streak over NE at250mb has also trended further and further N with each successive run which is likely the main reason the precip shield has as well.(Again 00z-06z-12z-18z)
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-83
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-84
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-85
 January 2022 Obs & Discussions Ecmwf-86

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:11 pm

SOB one or two more jumps and BOOM we go!!!! Look at how much closer we are at 500 on the EURO. It coming folks!!  This a 2 hairs away. Only positive juju in here!!!

Show Me Map 33WxBd
January 2022 Obs & Discussions Traili10


January 2022 Obs & Discussions Giphy10


Last edited by amugs on Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:17 pm

Sroc that Eagles game was actually Dec 7, 2013 very early in our winter season.  My back yard (Lakehurst at the time) snowed hard from about noon until about 6 pm. I was a snow weenie back then, but not following along at all, so i had zero idea that this storm was even out there until Lily (3 at the time) yelled “It’s Snowing!” This storm and that Eagles-Lions game as crippo pointed out, live on in lore around these parts.

Returning to this storm, of course, I am very happy to see that the surface map trends were backed up by more substantive changes! Keep on tracking! Keep on reeling Mugsy!!!


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:18 pm

NW HO WE GO!! nice lean on the SLP on EURO.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions 1363DEB4-AC56-4EC7-B8B6-BC4CB8CB8E96.png.c7cea1986bb7181544c7cbaf3c8d8d9f

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