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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

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January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Empty Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:25 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Sroc that Eagles game was actually Dec 7, 2013 very early in our winter season.  My back yard (Lakehurst at the time) snowed hard from about noon until about 6 pm. I was a snow weenie back then, but not following along at all, so i had zero idea that this storm was even out there until Lily (3 at the time) yelled “It’s Snowing!” This storm and that Eagles-Lions game as crippo pointed out, live on in lore around these parts.

Returning to this storm, of course, I am very happy to see that the surface map trends were backed up by more substantive changes! Keep on tracking! Keep on reeling Mugsy!!!

That's crazy that it was 8 years ago!!  Seems like yesterday.  BTW.................. Wink


January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 10412_new_york_giantsv2_300_1

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:52 pm

SREF just came north by quite a bit. Usually the NAM follows suit whatever that model shows. I guess we’ll find out shortly.


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Post by amugs Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:58 pm

Jump jump everybody now!!

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 2.png.7b56c52e426a9b962c376fd17440777c

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 1.png.e54e6c6acd08fb3bc334c41b900e024b

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:03 pm

@amugs wrote:Jump jump everybody now!!

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 2.png.7b56c52e426a9b962c376fd17440777c

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 1.png.e54e6c6acd08fb3bc334c41b900e024b

It’s happening!!!
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:04 pm

The confluence as per SROC jet streak maps on the previous page show this lifting N and relaxing as well. If we get more of both and hold back the SW energy in the south a few hours then they NS energy can dive in and phase.
Just a possibility that would allow a more N trend and stronger storm.
Keep an eye on it. If not we settle for what is what then. NNJ sharp cutoff


Last edited by amugs on Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:05 pm

I can tell you already NAM will be caving N

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:09 pm

SRoc- we might be getting the goods in Manorville/Wading River

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:18 pm

NAM definitely looking more GFS like. There's time to get something out of this as long as we see the trends continue. Remarkable if it holds.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:21 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:NAM definitely looking more GFS like.  There's time to get something out of this as long as we see the trends continue.  Remarkable if it holds.

Def a huge shift N on the Nam. Next up rgem

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:22 pm

BIG Shift at 500mb. Nice trend overall.
Look at the change in the trough and confluence over Maine = weaker and more N.
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 6ccf1517-ebee-44d1-9978-3e0bd234f1fb.gif.9bd354c084a51b14b852f639df574249

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:27 pm

Mid-Atlantic NWS offices must be concerned. They have forecasts out for no snow right now in many of the CWAs and some of these models are spitting out double digit snowfall. Unreal.

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:33 pm

Is this a quick hitter? In and out in 6-8 hours ?

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:34 pm

@dsix85 wrote:SRoc- we might be getting the goods in Manorville/Wading River

We shall see. I’m not quite ready to sound the alarm but I’m starting to get a tingling sensation down my arms. I thinks it’s a snow tingling and not the precursor to a heart attack. Lol

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:36 pm

LOL!  Look at the expansion of the precip field. C'mon man, really.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Fv310

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:38 pm

Dsix. 6-8hrs seems reasonable. Maybe 8-12 hours worth at most IF it pans out.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:41 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:LOL!  Look at the expansion of the precip field.  C'mon man, really.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Fv310

That’s all jet streak enhanced vertical motion. Lp still pretty far south

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:57 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:LOL!  Look at the expansion of the precip field.  C'mon man, really.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Fv310

That’s all jet streak enhanced vertical motion. Lp still pretty far south

Yes. I'm thinking trough tilt and maybe a little wave forms on the baroclinic zone just off NJ coast which could enhance precip too. Maybe models are picking up on that. That is really expansive precip field regardless.


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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:14 am

Rgem=bleh. Closed low just slips strait East consequently the surface low does too

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:48 am

GFS looking amped. It’s north at 36 hrs.
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Post by MattyICE Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:49 am

One additional factor that could aid in expansion of precip further north could be how convective this thing can get while further south - specifically with regard to latent heat release which could help raise heights. If that were to become a wildcard it would be something the meso/shorter range models might pick up on during the day tomorrow.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:50 am

The trend to hold back the energy and the confluence ticked N and weaker again. Let's keep this going.
RGEM 500 was better and made nice improvements but surface was blah. Not good with this. Euro up next.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:51 am

Gfs=oh baby. Came a tad further N.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:54 am

I’m off to bed. Can’t stay up.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 0014f410

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:58 am

GFS pushing > 1' of snow deep into Ocean County, LOL! AC with 18".

I just cannot wrap my head around it. I think it may be forming another wave off the baroclinic zone to get that kind of lift that far north.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:58 am

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Giphy11

KEEP REELING BABY!!

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