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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:15 pm

When in doubt in ICON we trust:


January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 9.25" 
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:When in doubt in ICON we trust:


January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22

Always my go-to. Wink
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Post by GreyBeard Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:20 pm

NWS seems to be onboard for a minor event. My local forecast is saying 1-3". They rarely predict totals this far out.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:24 pm

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 44096f10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:25 pm

Upton:

Energy will be moving onshore of the Pacific northwest coast
Wednesday and this will amplify a trough over the central states to
the southern Appalachians Thursday into Thursday night. The latest
forecast trend is for a deeper trough, and therefore passing a
little farther to the south, as the associated surface low deepens
and moves off the mid Atlantic Thursday night. Upper jet streaks and
a developing strong low level jet will allow the low to deepen
quickly from late Thursday night into Friday afternoon as the low
passes to the south and then east of Long Island. Currently the low
tracks is just to the east of the benchmark Friday morning. With this
track the heaviest precipitation remains offshore. There will br
cold air in place, and the evening will be mainly snow. Some rain
may mix in along the coast and eastern Long Island at the beginning
Thursday night, and again later Friday. Timing has the bulk of the
snow falling late Thursday night into early Friday morning, with
advisory level snowfall likely across the forecast region, with the
highest totals across northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and
Long Island. Snow ratio look to be about average at 10 to 1 through
the majority of the event. However, a shift of the low track farther
to the north and west could bring higher snowfall totals as the
pcpn likely remains all snow. With the progressive flow the
storm will be quick moving and the precipitation will be ending
during the day Friday.
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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:07 pm

Upton's first guess. Fair for now

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Stormt10
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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by amugs Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:44 pm

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Namcon17

18Z NAM not a bad run.


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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:01 pm

Accuweather changing up their maps.  I think at this point anyone I-95 and NW would be thrilled with a moderate event based on today's runs.  They will be way underdone in Maine if this ULL catches up with its mid-level energy at the BM.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Accuwe13

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:47 pm

NWS Mt Holly first snow map is consistent with Accuweather: 3-4” statewide in NJ with a band of 4-6” along the I-95, with the heavier band location still uncertain. That seems where consensus is headed and would be a nice event given what little winter most of us have had so far.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:30 pm

Nice shift west on the 18z EPS compared to 12z.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:52 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Accuweather changing up their maps.  I think at this point anyone I-95 and NW would be thrilled with a moderate event based on today's runs.  They will be way underdone in Maine if this ULL catches up with its mid-level energy at the BM.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Accuwe13
I guess they’re not buying into the 12Z model runs. Neither am I. Even with a progressive pattern, the vort is impressive which will in all likelihood cause the trough to go negative. I expect a correction westward at 0z.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:10 pm

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 8d86a410
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:13 pm

Yes there is still much uncertainty on the low pressure track as shown by the EPS members.  Some of these members show good intensification.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Eps25

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:19 pm

where do i sign? I would be happy with uptons call right now, anything more would be gravy. really hope to get to take my daughter on her first sledding this year.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:33 pm

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Day3_psnow_gt_04_conus

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:34 pm

Ugly 0z NAM run
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 4895f310
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:35 am

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 88795110
RGEM came in west. A good hit.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:39 am

Ohh Canada!
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:28 am

Aside from the NAM, some pretty good runs so far late this afternoon and tonight. Like the idea of a 2-4/3-6" type of event for most on the board

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:31 am

More west leaning members on the 0z GEFS compared to 18z.
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_11

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_12

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:47 am

CMC showing one of the best case scenarios. Widespread 4-6". Coast seems in the best spot here, even the more amped western solutions are cold enough to keep everyone snow. No real mixing issue with the western solutions unless the low goes over you

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:18 am

Oh you know, just a 300 mile or so "jog" west on the NAM from 00z to 06z... Laughing

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Nam_0612

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 2 Nam_0611
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:16 am

Gefs is further east 



I think 2-4 inches is a fair call right now for NYC
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:19 am

6z Euro is west, looking a bit more like the meso models. Pretty much just leaves the GFS in the eastern camp

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:41 am

As one would expect guidance on the track is all over the place. Some hugging the coast and others east of the BM. 06Z Euro op is BM track, but ensembles are well east of BM. More clarity today's runs most likely. Due to the cold temps I think 2-4" is reasonable expectation and any more depends on the strength of the s/w. If that is vigorous it will will tend to hug the coast more (as per Canadian) and parts of the area will have a shot at 6".

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