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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:43 am

Here’s a good look at the upper levels leading into this storm valid on Thursday. All that energy draped across the Great Lakes into northern New England really hurts this storms prospects, because it depresses heights over the east coast.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_eus_8

But the NAM is successful in developing a trough and consolidating the energy at the base much earlier than the GFS, which allows the low to mature faster and raise heights along the east coast. This keeps the storm tracking more west instead of slip east.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Namconus_z500_vort_eus_37


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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:52 am

Frank- you buying the NAM? Or, you think this slips East and is not a big deal?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:00 am

I think the east track is more likely, but I definitely think the GFS is under doing the precip considering how much energy is passing over our area. So a blend of both models would give us a 2-4” snowfall. Which could be locally higher where ratios exceed 10:1.

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:06 am

Called last storm well as did SR models. Hope it can go 2 for 2!!





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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:21 am

12z NAM is a wide right
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Ref1km14

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Sn10_a39
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:24 am

NAM much slower development of the s/w. Absolutely no consistency on this right now.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:31 am

NAM 06z/12Z are the goal posts with this. Think most everyone sees some measurable snow, but that s/w must develop quickly as this system is moving too fast for dilly dally.

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Post by MattyICE Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:37 am

IMO the NAM, at least for now and until it can stumble upon two consecutive runs that are remotely similar, has to be discounted regardless of whether it brings us a widespread warning criteria event or a barely nuisance level event.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:40 am

MattyICE wrote:IMO the NAM, at least for now and until it can stumble upon two consecutive runs that are remotely similar, has to be discounted regardless of whether it brings us a widespread warning criteria event or a barely nuisance level event.

Yeah, NAM is always going to give extreme solutions, but both solutions ATTM are extremely viable. It's very complex on how that s/w develops. Just the right or wrong tilt/spin makes all the difference in the world.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:53 am

This is what I'd like to start seeing on the models.  

12Z GFS notice the s/w energy starting to increase before it hit the coast.  That's the path for 6" for someone in the area.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Gfs43

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:03 am

heehaw453 wrote:This is what I'd like to start seeing on the models.  

12Z GFS notice the s/w energy starting to increase before it hit the coast.  That's the path for 6" for someone in the area.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Gfs43

Yupp but the 12z run verbatim was quite ugly
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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:27 am



Interesting

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:33 am

There will be meso banding under where these strong vertical velocities are in the mid levels

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 700hvv.conus

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 700tadv.conus

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:25 pm

3K NAM has had this signature of banding from IBM to LHV for a couple runs now. Interesting.
Rayno still harping on a 3-6" snowfall for NNJ through ELI and into CT.

Same read from Paul Dorian

https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2022/1/5/j0gsdi9byd5urzlcq0gi82zlyoditb

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:41 pm

It’s becoming apparent that the global and hi-res models are having convection issues. The 12z RGEM for example had a low just off the coast then it jumped to a convection blob offshore. Then it inexplicably transferred back to the coast followed by transferring once again to an offshore low. Like that’s going to happen. Also we’re dealing with a small disturbance north of the Bahamas that can throw a monkey wrench into the forecast. I don’t think the models will have a clue until 0z or even 12z tomorrow. Until then windshield wiper is in effect.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:02 pm

HREF in line with other SR model on meso banding. This is a tough call.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Fiwwzr10

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:10 pm

That’s a fairly large area of a half inch of liquid which of course is almost double that in the meso bands. I’d sign up for that without a second thought, even without being under one of the bands.

Of course the reality is always if you’re five to ten miles outside or God forbid in between two of the bands you’re most likely scrooed.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:10 pm

Euro 12Z looked much better. It's a step in the right direction. Not really looking at surface panels.

Get to this look about 3 hours earlier and then it will produce.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Euro37

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Post by MattyICE Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:It’s becoming apparent that the global and hi-res models are having convection issues. The 12z RGEM for example had a low just off the coast then it jumped to a convection blob offshore. Then it inexplicably transferred back to the coast followed by transferring once again to an offshore low. Like that’s going to happen. Also we’re dealing with a small disturbance north of the Bahamas that can throw a monkey wrench into the forecast. I don’t think the models will have a clue until 0z or even 12z tomorrow. Until then windshield wiper is in effect.

I wouldn’t focus so much on where the specific “L” shows up. No it wouldn’t happen like you say, but it would be indicative of there being strung out energies and multiple centers trying to figure out who wants to be primary and who should transfer energy to whom. That’s my interpretation Which is very real and what will limit how powerful a storm can get.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:47 pm

Globals are starting to resolve the meso and ingredients set up I would assume but the mess have the physics and algorithms to pick this up.
SROC pointed it out before with the 3K NAM and the HRRR and HREFs have it as well as the RGEM. Very interesting for sure.

Where and if this PVA sets up can be the difference between 2" and 4".

Also ratios will be 12:15-1 in NNJ on North.
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Fiwyqx10

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:00 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:That’s a fairly large area of a half inch of liquid which of course is almost double that in the meso bands. I’d sign up for that without a second thought, even without being under one of the bands.

Of course the reality is always if you’re five to ten miles outside or God forbid in between two of the bands you’re most likely scrooed.

CP, that map that Mugs posted is indicating how much snow could potentially fall per hour depending on the max banding we get, not liquid QPF. In our areas we could potentially be in .50-.75 per hour for a time if we get some banding. I think us folks N and W will see 2-3, maybe 4 if things work out. It's better than nothing I guess.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:02 pm

hyde345 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:That’s a fairly large area of a half inch of liquid which of course is almost double that in the meso bands. I’d sign up for that without a second thought, even without being under one of the bands.

Of course the reality is always if you’re five to ten miles outside or God forbid in between two of the bands you’re most likely scrooed.

CP, that map that Mugs posted is indicating how much snow could potentially fall per hour depending on the max banding we get, not liquid QPF. In our areas we could potentially be in .50-.75 per hour for a time if we get some banding. I think us folks N and W will see 2-3, maybe 4 if things work out. It's better than nothing I guess.

Thanks Hyde. I thought that was to good to be true.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:36 pm

The EPS low pressure members are mostly inside BM at 48 hours.  Ultimately I believe that's going to verify and think it could be closer than this.  It's a question of the speed of intensification as the system is going fast.  Also, it's not necessarily about how low the pressure is when it hits our latitude it's about how fast it's dropping on its approach. A cyclone that maxes out before reaching latitude is like a dead carcass.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Eps26

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:51 pm

amugs wrote:Globals are starting to resolve the meso and ingredients set up I would assume but the mess have the physics and algorithms to pick this up.
SROC pointed it out before with the 3K NAM and the HRRR and HREFs have it as well as the RGEM. Very interesting for sure.

Where and if this PVA sets up can be the difference between 2" and 4".

Also ratios will be 12:15-1 in NNJ on North.
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Fiwyqx10
Looks like from that map the same for NYC on north into my neck of the woods, just been watching the forum as been busy with work. Reel this one in guys! Looking more or less or the same in terms of seeing 6+ somewhere?
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:20 pm

18Z NAM
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Sn10_a40

18Z HRRR
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 3 Sn10_a41

Glad we have agreement
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