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Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:29 am

Focus your eyes on northern New England/Maine when you compare these two MSLP maps.

This morning's GFS valid Sunday morning:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_atl_17

Monday's GFS valid Sunday morning:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_atl_24

The blues have been replaced with reds. Basically, where we once saw lower heights as a result of the -NAO block is now replaced by positive heights (High Pressure). This single change is what's allowing our storm system to cut west. Unfortunately, changes like this are difficult to reverse. I think our best bet is for the Nor'easter to phase earlier and make that hook left into Canada again, which acts as our 50-50 low.

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Post by mmanisca Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Focus your eyes on northern New England/Maine when you compare these two MSLP maps.

This morning's GFS valid Sunday morning:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_atl_17

Monday's GFS valid Sunday morning:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_atl_24

The blues have been replaced with reds. Basically, where we once saw lower heights as a result of the -NAO block is now replaced by positive heights (High Pressure). This single change is what's allowing our storm system to cut west. Unfortunately, changes like this are difficult to reverse. I think our best bet is for the Nor'easter to phase earlier and make that hook left into Canada again, which acts as our 50-50 low.


Great observation Frank, that is key. The only hope is that the modeling has the dynamics of the high incorrect, cause if it's right then were not looking good.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:45 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Focus your eyes on northern New England/Maine when you compare these two MSLP maps.

This morning's GFS valid Sunday morning:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_atl_17

Monday's GFS valid Sunday morning:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_atl_24

The blues have been replaced with reds. Basically, where we once saw lower heights as a result of the -NAO block is now replaced by positive heights (High Pressure). This single change is what's allowing our storm system to cut west. Unfortunately, changes like this are difficult to reverse. I think our best bet is for the Nor'easter to phase earlier and make that hook left into Canada again, which acts as our 50-50 low.

That is a good point.  The blocking a few days ago was more western and now it's more eastern based.  This allow a ridge connection from arctic right into NE which just lifts resistance out.  Clearly see the arctic ridge connection here.  I still argue though there is time for change.  The Low could vertically stack and move just ever so slightly east and then your WAA would be mitigated.  Mother nature will always surprise.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:01 am

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 FI59fh_X0A0syxB?format=jpg&name=medium

Seems the GFS is going with the two most extreme eastward LP as you can see on the map - there is a westward lean on this by over a dozen members

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:16 am

Man I wish I can devote more time to maps and analysis along side you guys. You all are doing a phenomenal job BTw. I will say this. Frank makes a great point regarding what’s happening in the Atlantic with HP and 50/50 low position etc. that said I really think there are still other ways to avoid the cut but it makes things have to be even more perfectly timed. In general I personally don’t like an earlier phase at all; esp with the Atlantic currently trending the way it is. If we assume the Atlantic trends maintain or get worse then the more phasing and/or the stronger the initial system is the quicker and easier heights out ahead are going to lift into the coastal plain and there will be no resistance to prevent it from cutting and really driving the warm air into the mid levels. So instead I think what we need is to look at the energy behind the main system and the syst6em itself. Rather than phase, which classically turns the system up as the trough goes negative, maybe the trailing energy comes in a little faster and further north such that we would get it to steer the system further south and east as we typically see when the pattern is more progressive, again rather than phase into the back of it which raises heights. We do need it to phase but it has to be a little later to prevent the early cut west with the stronger system and less than perfect Atlantic. Yup Baby bear. The more east based the NAO, the more “progressive” the flow becomes off the coast(relatively speaking). As that happens then we need to start looking at the pacific and hope for a weaker system and/or a later phase.

Timing and strength of all the energy involved with the system itself, out in front of the system, and behind the system is far from know yet. Heck. The energy that is Friday’s apparent swing and miss system is just this morning coming onshore in northern Canada this morning(which I still think eastern sections has a shot at this one). The energy behind our Monday system is even further out so it’s exact strength and timing with respect to our system is far from known.

For now we let the weenies jump and we sit back and watch, then we will start to see how the modeling actually evolves. I agree with heehaw where this may be one of those situations where literally within 36 hours models are walking the track to its final destination.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:38 am

Again you look at ENS to help with the directions of the LP and their locations where the mean is. This will change another ?x due to the volatility of the pattern. patience and if you can not take this volatility then take a break and come back Friday. Last couple of storms we did not have a solution until 24 -36 hours before and even then it kept trending.


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Post by amugs Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:04 am

Most Progressive Model

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_22

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:13 am

Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:19 am

sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  


The circled energy is dropping in out of the arctic/polar regions SE. If we can get this little lobe of PV to trend a little faster and further SE over the Hudson Bay as indicated by the arrow, it will help press back on the heights in the east likely forcing an energy transfer off the coast before reaching our lat.  

At least this is one way things can trend better for us.


Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_z525

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:20 am

sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  

Looking at the GFS it kind of shows where the energy splits. Due to the temp contrast it's going to probably thump hard for a bit. The ULL can't get anywhere near Mason Dixon Line though otherwise mid levels will flood. NW of 95 have best shot at sig snow with this ATTM. I don't think there's much modelling to contradict that now. Things can still work out, but it's going to get some adjustments for coastal plain to get decent snows.

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Post by MattyICE Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:22 am

Plenty of time to trend. I’d like to hope that we have seen the pendulum finish its far left swing. I do think we can do things to trend back further East, but honestly only so much. I think the souther slider or coastal scraper idea is nearly off the table. At this point I think the best we might muster is a true just inland runner track that might get us some moderate to even significant accumulations via a front end thump before an inevitable changeover to slop. That high pressure can trend stronger all it wants, if there’s no 50/50 low to hold it in it WILL scoot off the New England coast and our mid-levels WILL warm significantly due to Synoptics. Pick your poison, but I’m not looking for ways to get this back all the way to a benchmark bomb that plasters the whole board with 1-2’ of snow. I’m looking at cold air damming, and enhanced confluence and a HP that hangs on a bit longer BEFORE the scoot to see if we can maximize some front end frozen QPF. IF I’m wrong I’ll be thrilled and will gladly take my 1-2’ of all snow! Plenty of time for changes, and these are just my general amateur thoughts.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:27 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  


The circled energy is dropping in out of the arctic/polar regions SE.  If we can get this little lobe of PV to trend a little faster and further SE over the Hudson Bay as indicated by the arrow, it will help press back on the heights in the east likely forcing an energy transfer off the coast before reaching our lat.  

At least this is one way things can trend better for us.


Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_z525
That GFS run looked wonky to me. You have a primary down in NC moving due east making a beeline towards the coast, when it abruptly moves due north into Pennsylvania. Don’t think I’m buying that. My best guess is the GFS is trending towards a miller B with a coastal transfer. Otherwise a slight improvement from 06z. Snow output increased a bit too. Waiting on the ensembles.


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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:33 am

MattyICE wrote:Plenty of time to trend. I’d like to hope that we have seen the pendulum finish its far left swing. I do think we can do things to trend back further East, but honestly only so much. I think the souther slider or coastal scraper idea is nearly off the table. At this point I think the best we might muster is a true just inland runner track that might get us some moderate to even significant accumulations via a front end thump before an inevitable changeover to slop. That high pressure can trend stronger all it wants, if there’s no 50/50 low to hold it in it WILL scoot off the New England coast and our mid-levels WILL warm significantly due to Synoptics. Pick your poison, but I’m not looking for ways to get this back all the way to a benchmark bomb that plasters the whole board with 1-2’ of snow. I’m looking at cold air damming, and enhanced confluence and a HP that hangs on a bit longer BEFORE the scoot to see if we can maximize some front end frozen QPF. IF I’m wrong I’ll be thrilled and will gladly take my 1-2’ of all snow!  Plenty of time for changes, and these are just my general amateur thoughts.

The high will provide good cold air for an initial thump. That could make a difference of a few extra inches for some that turn to rain. The problem is resistance of the northward trajectory of the ULL. Maybe trending weaker with less s/w action or potentially splitting, but if it gets to Mason Dixon line still fairly intact we're going to rain fairly quickly. The good thing is adjustments at this range can be made, but we got to start seeing them...

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:51 am

Normally this would be exactly what you want to see for surface low pressure locations. It's pretty much right here where the ULL feels the backside energy and wants to move northerly as it intensifies instead of northeast towards the BM. That is complex stuff to know that synergy outcome. But this is the critical part IMO...
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gefs28


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Post by amugs Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:56 am

Again coastal hugger but more west than east or inland this run.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 FI6nuE3XoAE4krf?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  


The circled energy is dropping in out of the arctic/polar regions SE.  If we can get this little lobe of PV to trend a little faster and further SE over the Hudson Bay as indicated by the arrow, it will help press back on the heights in the east likely forcing an energy transfer off the coast before reaching our lat.  

At least this is one way things can trend better for us.


Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_z525

You can see the CMC is further SE with the circled energy I highlighted with the GFS. Baby steps. CMC snow line and totals has shifted S&E relative to its 00z. Im not sure that we can get all the way beack to the BM bomb for all either, but perhaps a trend to longer and longer front end thump and a track just inside the BM.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_18
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gem_z500_vort_namer_20

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  


The circled energy is dropping in out of the arctic/polar regions SE.  If we can get this little lobe of PV to trend a little faster and further SE over the Hudson Bay as indicated by the arrow, it will help press back on the heights in the east likely forcing an energy transfer off the coast before reaching our lat.  

At least this is one way things can trend better for us.


Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_z525

You can see the CMC is further SE with the circled energy I highlighted with the GFS.  Baby steps.  CMC snow line and totals has shifted S&E relative to its 00z.  Im not sure that we can get all the way beack to the BM bomb for all either, but perhaps a trend to longer and longer front end thump and a track just inside the BM.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_18
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Gem_z500_vort_namer_20

That's actually 0z. 12z CMC will be significantly delayed. They had a massive outage
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:18 pm

I am just coming to that conclusion..lol either way it is faster with that energy

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:37 pm

I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

For me, and I am going to be a little selfish just for a moment here if I may, I would like the perfect scenario to be a massive front end thump for all, and just as the warm air begins to get close it Miller B's to just at or SE of the BM setting up the CCB right over my house, just like Nemo in Feb 2013.  I ended with just under 30".

https://weather.com/storms/winter/nemo/news/winter-storm-nemo-reports-20130208

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Nemo-snow-totals-ne_980x551

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal
Still not buying the apps runner since in recent years it’s been a rare and anomalous track. My goalposts have shrunk with this storm. I’m thinking anywhere from an inside the BM to a NYC track.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

For me, and I am going to be a little selfish just for a moment here if I may, I would like the perfect scenario to be a massive front end thump for all, and just as the warm air begins to get close it Miller B's to just at or SE of the BM setting up the CCB right over my house, just like Nemo in Feb 2013.  I ended with just under 30".  

https://weather.com/storms/winter/nemo/news/winter-storm-nemo-reports-20130208

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Nemo-snow-totals-ne_980x551
That storm was insane, forget what I got I know it was somewhat of a let down I was in that second shade of purple, my parents got the death band with 40 inches in CT!! I think that was a record for the area. They said they had never seen it snow so long and so hard. Snow drifted up fiurst gloor windows. It is okay to be selfish, if I can get 6-12 out of this I would be happy, I also won't be entirely surprised if it doesn't work out but heres hoping!

Edit: I actually did pretty well, I think I got like 12-15, and I remember the winds were insane so I got both my weather obsessions : ) I would be fine with a Nemo again even if you bank. I consider 6+ a bank for these parts.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:55 pm

12Z Ukmet is ULL right over the area. Gives significant snow NW I-95. If this is goal post ULL directly over head to inside the BM then it's workable. Can't really afford anymore steps backwards IMO.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

For me, and I am going to be a little selfish just for a moment here if I may, I would like the perfect scenario to be a massive front end thump for all, and just as the warm air begins to get close it Miller B's to just at or SE of the BM setting up the CCB right over my house, just like Nemo in Feb 2013.  I ended with just under 30".  

https://weather.com/storms/winter/nemo/news/winter-storm-nemo-reports-20130208

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 Nemo-snow-totals-ne_980x551
That storm was insane, forget what I got I know it was somewhat of a let down I was in that second shade of purple, my parents got the death band with 40 inches in CT!! I think that was a record for the area. They said they had never seen it snow so long and so hard. Snow drifted up fiurst gloor windows. It is okay to be selfish, if I can get 6-12 out of this I would be happy, I also won't be entirely surprised if it doesn't work out but heres hoping!

Edit: I actually did pretty well, I think I got like 12-15, and I remember the winds were insane so I got both my weather obsessions : ) I would be fine with a Nemo again even if you bank. I consider 6+  a bank for these parts.

Here’s to Hoping Jon

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 6 F63fb210

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:58 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal
Still not buying the apps runner since in recent years it’s been a rare and anomalous track. My goalposts have shrunk with this storm. I’m thinking anywhere from an inside the BM to a NYC track.
In between would be better than a NYC runner, that would suck. I dunno I have a tingling that as we close in on the 3 day we are go see some SR craziness. The fact that a OTS is off table is great, the fact that a apps runner is not is not great. But lets hope we can get that off the table too, as scott said baby steps.

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