Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:40 pm

The fact that the OP is the most NW in the whole ensemble suite is a BIG red flag. I’m not sure if it’s a resolution thing or what, but across all models the OPs and Ensembles disagree.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS are SE of OP by what appears like a wide margin

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by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:42 pm

Almost there on WeatherBell, Frank. I’ll post when able.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The fact that the OP is the most NW in the whole ensemble suite is a BIG red flag. I’m not sure if it’s a resolution thing or what, but across all models the OPs and Ensembles disagree.

Very well could be.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:46 pm

Ukie is east

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by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:47 pm

So are the GEFS.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 5 3623dd10

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:So are the GEFS.

Hmm, from that actually looks like a handful of members hug the coast. That’s a trend toward the OP, right? My guess is the mean is west of 18z.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 pm

They do. And yeah, they’re more in line with the Op, but if you look (I’ll post 18z too), I’d argue that it only appears further west because you have more clustered near the Delmarva at 00z than you did at 18z. 18z still had several far eastern outliers skewing the mean. The western flank of the 00z GEFS is no further west than at 18z, and is about 150-200 miles further ESE of the Op. that’s huge.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:00 am

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 5 Cf7d0210

Basically what I’m saying is that you’re seeing a clustering very near the Delaware Bight in the ensemble versus the Op which is up in State College lmao

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:09 am

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 5 Cmc_oo10

CMC Op also well inland

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:22 am

I’m not worried yet.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:28 am

EURO held serve. Our northwestern forum members get worked. 2 feet incoming for them verbatim.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:29 am

Hey Aresian, where you at?? This run has your name on it haha

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:39 am

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:58 am

GEPS are ugly:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 5 F626e410

I’m still not worried. If I get a chance tomorrow, maybe I’ll take another look and see if my thoughts will change. But I might not have time.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:08 am

EPS look like the multi-model ensemble, clustered generally over the Delaware Bight or just west over Delaware then move NE from there pretty much along I-95.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:31 am

Yup 06z gfs cuts through great Lakes. I'm not worried could shift back to where it was easily. Too far out for any consistency.

by **Snow88** Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:55 am

Maybe we need the ocean storm to trend stronger again. The runs where it were closer and stronger to the coast showed Monday's storm flat.

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:56 am

The weather channel first had me 5 to 8 all snow .now they have me snow to rain with 1 to 3 inches

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:05 am

frank 638 wrote:The weather channel first had me 5 to 8 all snow .now they have me snow to rain with 1 to 3 inches

Why even bother looking they go directly by gfs operational so every run the snow totals will change. Pointless to waste your time looking there. They should put out a forecast not just a copy of the runs verbatim.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:23 am

Good Lord what a Fn ugly night of model runs. I have to get a new hobby. I can’t take these ups and downs.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:27 am

The story is far from finalized.
What is the interaction of the TPV lobe with the main ULL?
What will Friday's storm do to the atmosphere to produce some potential resistance?
Normally ULL that go over northern GA do not have mid-level lows that go west of our area at 40N+. However, if there is no resistance to its north and the phasing happens too early it could tilt the trough enough so something like that is possible. This one might be 36 hours out before there is real clarity. That being said I'd love the models to be done with the western solutions.

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:34 am

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:The weather channel first had me 5 to 8 all snow .now they have me snow to rain with 1 to 3 inches
Why even bother looking they go directly by gfs operational so every run the snow totals will change. Pointless to waste your time looking there. They should put out a forecast not just a copy of the runs verbatim.

good point my brother I hope u and ur family are feeling better

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:51 am

The main energy associated with this potential storm is still over the Pacific, roughly 3,000 miles away.

...for perspective's sake. Very Happy

by **phil155** Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:07 am

I think rb was saying yesterday that we were seeing an over correction on the models and I agree with that. I think in time we will see this trend further to the east. Just my very amateur opinion

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:26 am

06Z EPS fairly similar to 00Z EPS. A bit more of westward movement. If it were to verify it'd be an I-81 special. As has been stated it's still within a fairly high margin of error time frame, but then again I haven't seen a halt to the western progression on the models.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:28 am

I should also note on the 06Z EPS that the ULL was not nearly as consolidated as 00Z which could indicate a split of the energy locations.

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