Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

After a frigid Saturday, it looks like this event, for my area, might be turning into a front end 1-3 snow affair, before throwing down all rain late Sunday into Monday.

The 18Z GFS was a better run. Much colder run. If you look at these snow accumulations it's really a matter of a few hours of difference in the interaction with the TPV s/w and the main ULL. I think this is still volatile and this snow map may look dramatically different by Friday night. Rb anything encouraging here?

GFs made a nice jump SE and it started with less amplified quicker ejecting LP. It goes from Knox to Willmington and NNE.
GEFS are going to be interesting.
Again the energy doesn't come onshore until Friday. Banana HP are a tad stronger also the Ocean storm is a bit further west now and looks to affect the CAP bigly and slower pulling out. This would add to confluence over the top which would also all add to adjustments of the track a bit more east.

Feel like a transfer/complete phase could occur right here.  you can also see mid-level energy on the coast.  How many times have we seen this happen before?  Plenty.

18Z GEFS clearly shifted SE. Take a look at the trend from 12z

Arctic airmass may make this push a bit SE

GEFS make a sizable shift SE too. Let's see what the tomorrow runs bring.

18Z GEFS definitely moved in the right direction.

Recon data may be in 0z runs tonight. That was the plan anyway

mikeypizano wrote:Is there any chance this will be another Juno?

In my opinion, near 0 lol

sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  

January 2016 genre, maybe just a little further south. Still like this as a reference storm, though I have to dig up the maps to make sure my memory is still ok haha

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  

The circled energy is dropping in out of the arctic/polar regions SE.  If we can get this little lobe of PV to trend a little faster and further SE over the Hudson Bay as indicated by the arrow, it will help press back on the heights in the east likely forcing an energy transfer off the coast before reaching our lat.  

At least this is one way things can trend better for us.

Excellent post, Scott. This is step 1. Step 2 would be to see the secondary shortwave dropping in behind our storm do so faster, and I’ve already explained why. I am expecting these changes, and as much as I hate off-hour runs, today’s 18z GFS suite took a step in this direction. Start of a trend? Maybe. Have to just let the runs play out for now.

MattyICE wrote:Plenty of time to trend. I’d like to hope that we have seen the pendulum finish its far left swing. I do think we can do things to trend back further East, but honestly only so much. I think the souther slider or coastal scraper idea is nearly off the table. At this point I think the best we might muster is a true just inland runner track that might get us some moderate to even significant accumulations via a front end thump before an inevitable changeover to slop. That high pressure can trend stronger all it wants, if there’s no 50/50 low to hold it in it WILL scoot off the New England coast and our mid-levels WILL warm significantly due to Synoptics. Pick your poison, but I’m not looking for ways to get this back all the way to a benchmark bomb that plasters the whole board with 1-2’ of snow. I’m looking at cold air damming, and enhanced confluence and a HP that hangs on a bit longer BEFORE the scoot to see if we can maximize some front end frozen QPF. IF I’m wrong I’ll be thrilled and will gladly take my 1-2’ of all snow!  Plenty of time for changes, and these are just my general amateur thoughts.

The high scooting off of New England is only one piece of the puzzle. What if you start extending the western flank over the top of our storm like a finger? You can maintain your ageostrophic cold advection even if the main body of the high is slipping east. This is the idea that I’m looking for right now. And if you have ridging at the surface, then you have ridging (relative to our storm) that can help morph this into Scott’s Miller-B, as the primary tries to drive northward into this ridging, and then is forced to redevelop further east where the forcing is better.

I always get confused between Miller a And Miller b What is better stupid question

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Looks like we may need this to trend towards a Miller B to work out.  

January 2016 genre, maybe just a little further south. Still like this as a reference storm, though I have to dig up the maps to make sure my memory is still ok haha

Well I barely made it in the heavy banding in 2016 so if it's further south be a non event most areas north of NYC got 0

frank 638 wrote:I always get confused between Miller a And Miller b What is better stupid question

Not a stupid question.  Both have advantages and disadvantages.  In general the classic Miller A you get a storm to form over the south, pick up some gulf moisture and basically take a direct route straight up the coast (BLUE LINE).

The Miller B is where the storm track starts heading N to NE to the west through the Tenn Valley area, but stubborn HP to its N forces the Low to transfer or reform the energy off the coast more laterally before heading back on the N to NE track(purple,and purple/yellow line).  

Which one is better or worse all depends on many factors.  The reason I say we need to hope for the Miller A in this case is that it appears an initial cut to the west is inevitable.  Up through now though the Low has simply rammed through the HP and continued west bringing the warm air with it.  However if we can move some of the main pieces around a bit such that the HP builds in a bit stronger and holds on a bit longer, and or we have a weaker storm on approach etc, then we can hopefully force the transfer off the coast as it runs into said stronger HP to our N such that instead of being in the warm sector of a strong storm(east side) we then immediately go back to the cold sector, NW and W side.

In general our NW folks dont tend to like the Miller B as much because when the transfer occurs there is invariably an area of subsidence(sinking air) that forms in between the original low and the newly forming secondary off the coast.  If you are stuck in this area the snow shuts off until the transfer competes.  

I'm.confused this thread says 16th but sci says 17th. Which day is it? Prepaid plans Sunday afternoon upstate. So hoping can hold off till late Sunday evening or overnight.

jmanley32 wrote:I'm.confused this thread says 16th but sci says 17th. Which day is it? Prepaid plans Sunday afternoon upstate. So hoping can hold off till late Sunday evening or overnight.

16th into the 17th

Sroc thank you so much for explaining and putting a map up for Miller a and b . Hopefully exciting times are coming up for us I know we all all going to be sleeping late

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I'm.confused this thread says 16th but sci says 17th. Which day is it? Prepaid plans Sunday afternoon upstate. So hoping can hold off till late Sunday evening or overnight.

16th into the 17th

K my daughter go be upset if misses her unicorn photo shoot Sunday. And so will I as non refundable. Hopefully if bad storm they make exception or reschedule.

heehaw453 wrote:Rb are you on to something or just kinda playin' around?  The EPS has two distinct camps, but both seem to shove the ULL further south.  This location is much much better.

I can have fun and joke around, but the one thing I don’t play around with is a forecast haha everything I’m saying is completely honest opinion

frank 638 wrote:Sroc thank you so much for explaining and putting a map up for Miller a  and b . Hopefully exciting times are coming up for us I know we all all going to be sleeping late

Sorry not me this year my job requires all of me and is a job I'm very good at and am finally where I need to be. Only been there 7 mos and have already gotten rave reviews. I will however be off Monday so can track all Sunday night if we get the storm. Friday and sat night too. But during week no bueno.

algae888 wrote:I'm a little confused we want the northern stream to speed up and phase sooner?  Wouldn't that cause a more northern and western track?  I would think we would want a later phase or miss the phase completely  so the system moves more northeasterly from the carolinas instead of due North from there

I do, because it would allow a greater separation from/less “drag” on the TPV lobe over central Canada. In theory, that should allow the TPV lobe to dive further southeast into eastern/east-central Canada and work to compress the height field out ahead of our storm, as Scott so nicely demonstrated. Secondarily to that, if we phase the energy that has been linking the TPV lobe with our storm, but with the separation mentioned above, you can force height rises over top of our storm, essentially like a pseudo cyclonic wave break. This would put a cap on the northward progression and force a coastal transfer sooner. At least in my head lmao

Lnda23 wrote:Feels like this one might turn out to be memorable.  Just a feeling!

You should post more

heehaw453 wrote:Feel like a transfer/complete phase could occur right here.  you can also see mid-level energy on the coast.  How many times have we seen this happen before?  Plenty.

You answered your own question of if there was anything good lol it’s subtle, but look at the finger of “less negative” pressure anomalies versus 12z and then compare the evolution of the height anomalies at H5. More separation from the TPV lobe is what we want to see.

Pressure difference e on 18z notable .
Those over the midwest help push the storm away from them and more to the coast.

Also, as I mentioned in an earlier post the big Ocean storm is trending further west and thus is slower to depart with the energetic being faster in the S so that will dampen the heights thus not allowing g a cut inland but a more coastal scenario. Alas, look at how anomalous warm the western Hotlantic is!!
= latent heat, moisture and strengthen, cyclogenesis of storm for storms