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Long Range Discussion 23.0

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:10 am

Radz wrote:I know 5 days is a lifetime away, but the solutions being spit out are giving me chills lol - reel her in!
Heh yeah was nice to wake and see those runs plenty of time to be all over the place east west will be interesting week. I'm still not biting because a storm like the cmc and some gfs runs are rather u usual. I hope continues to show this come wed Thurs.
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Post by dsix85 Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:10 am

Before we jump off a cliff worrying about IMBY with r/s line, etc…let’s be thankful the trends took a major positive jump last night and we all have reason to be distracted at work this week. We track!

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:44 am

The 06Z GFS went in on the possibility of the storm directly impacting the area.  The ULL is getting pulled NNE and this would be a bomb well inside the BM.  It would actually try to reconsolidate further north.  Synoptically we have an excellent ridge, vigorous n/s s/w diving into the gulf and if energy is not left back we at least have a chance.  We have an east based ridge and this storm may get pinched between the backend trough and the Atlantic ridge.  Buckle up it's going to be a bumpy ride until Saturday.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs61

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:55 am

heehaw453 wrote:The 06Z GFS went in on the possibility of the storm directly impacting the area.  The ULL is getting pulled NNE and this would be a bomb well inside the BM.  It would actually try to reconsolidate further north.  Synoptically we have an excellent ridge, vigorous n/s s/w diving into the gulf and if energy is not left back we at least have a chance.  We have an east based ridge and this storm may get pinched between the backend trough and the Atlantic ridge.  Buckle up it's going to be a bumpy ride until Saturday.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs61
Massive improvements overnight at H5 with the models. What ever happened to the kicker which was supposed to flatten out the ridge and is there still a threat of it returning?
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:07 am

This 06Z GFS H5 is similar to Canadian.  The storm gets pinched between the ridges with excellent consolidation. The GFS actually shows the Atlantic ridge strengthening as the storm approaches and I think that is going to be a big factor in the storm trajectory.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 06zgfs14

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Post by dsix85 Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:10 am

@heehaw…does a storm like this have the opportunity to have impacts beyond a 24 hour window? Looks like this would be drawn out over a full day, correct?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:12 am

heehaw453 wrote:This 06Z GFS H5 is similar to Canadian.  The storm gets pinched between the ridges with excellent consolidation.  The GFS actually shows the Atlantic ridge strengthening as the storm approaches and I think that is going to be a big factor in the storm trajectory.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 06zgfs14
So has your confidence in it being a miss gone down at all? Or still to early to tell? The fact that the models at least some what agree as of over noight and this morning IMO is a good sign but what are the chances such as stated above the kicker comes back and that pinch in the ridge disappears? Oy what a week this is going to be, at least I have my hectic schedule to keep me busy. This would be saturday, or Friday?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:13 am

dsix85 wrote:@heehaw…does a storm like this have the opportunity to have impacts beyond a 24 hour window? Looks like this would be drawn out over a full day, correct?
that would be insane if so, and yeah it looks to be a slow mover if pieces fall as shown, which we have to be careful about on day 4-5 out. Also look at the winds, this would be my dream storm, rediculously heavy snow and 50-60mph wind gusts. Yes I am fully aware this could still be a miss I am not getting hyped just hopinh.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:15 am

dsix85 wrote:@heehaw…does a storm like this have the opportunity to have impacts beyond a 24 hour window? Looks like this would be drawn out over a full day, correct?

If an ULL closes off there is that possibility. With amplification like that established it becomes meridional (n/s) and not progressive (e/w). The flow slows down because of that.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:17 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:This 06Z GFS H5 is similar to Canadian.  The storm gets pinched between the ridges with excellent consolidation.  The GFS actually shows the Atlantic ridge strengthening as the storm approaches and I think that is going to be a big factor in the storm trajectory.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 06zgfs14
So has your confidence in it being a miss gone down at all? Or still to early to tell? The fact that the models at least some what agree as of over noight and this morning IMO is a good sign but what are the chances such as stated above the kicker comes back and that pinch in the ridge disappears?  Oy what a week this is going to be, at least I have my hectic schedule to keep me busy.  This would be saturday, or Friday?

I have no confidence in any details ATTM, but if the H5 is correct, then I think it's more likely than not that it won't go OTS. Direct impact? Way to early to know that yet. That to me depends on consolidation/phasing, but some ingredients are there...

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:37 am

EPS has a very nice look for a snowstorm from DelMarva through Nova Scotia.
If we can get teh block to push a tad more westward we'd slow up the flow more but I like that the East Based NAO is pinched westward and deepening. WE also have Wednesday's storm miss that may just help slow teh flow as well a bit.

IF we ha d a solid west based NAO this would be a HECS to on the verge of BECS as depicted on all models - playing the iF game here i know. More to come of course in the next 4 days

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 FJ3qhbAWUAASwgS?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:46 am

Canadian snowfall map from last night and the GFS this morning. Both very similar and pretty confident both will chnage one way or the other over the next 5 days. Eerily similar those this far out, though, especially how they both show mostly rain in eastern Mass and RI. The GFS had a similar snow map 4 days ago then lost it for several days.

Yes I know snow maps aren't very helpful but it's all I've got.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Cmc_fo11
Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs_sn11
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:53 am

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 27366910

This is the precise trend you want to see. A slower/deeper short wave off the west coast which allows a stronger/more poleward western ridge. This greatly enhances the snow probability along the east coast this weekend.

Can’t get excited yet. There’s still some work to do. And whose to say these trends don’t trend unfavorable over the next two days (as has been the case all season long)? Temper excitement and hope the positive trends continue!

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:12 am

Great post - and this a good trend so far.
@Hee Haw great work in this thread for this storm

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:59 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Canadian snowfall map from last night and the GFS this morning. Both very similar and pretty confident both will chnage one way or the other over the next 5 days. Eerily similar those this far out, though, especially how they both show mostly rain in eastern Mass and RI. The GFS had a similar snow map 4 days ago then lost it for several days.

Yes I know snow maps aren't very helpful but it's all I've got.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Cmc_fo11
Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs_sn11

Yep yep yep. This is the point that I go all in. I know the risks, and I know how to keep my ‘mush’ mouth shut so as to not ruin anything for anyone else. But the thrill is in the hunt, and I’m on the hunt. So, the thrill is on!

And thanks so much to everyone for all the updates. Heehaw you are simply tireless my brother, thank you for the constant updates and analyis!!

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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:08 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Canadian snowfall map from last night and the GFS this morning. Both very similar and pretty confident both will chnage one way or the other over the next 5 days. Eerily similar those this far out, though, especially how they both show mostly rain in eastern Mass and RI. The GFS had a similar snow map 4 days ago then lost it for several days.


Yes I know snow maps aren't very helpful but it's all I've got.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Cmc_fo11
Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs_sn11

Yep yep yep. This is the point that I go all in. I know the risks, and I know how to keep my ‘mush’ mouth shut so as to not ruin anything for anyone else. But the thrill is in the hunt, and I’m on the hunt. So, the thrill is on!

And thanks so much to everyone for all the updates. Heehaw you are simply tireless my brother, thank you for the constant updates and analyis!!


I like the early commitment, I like it  


Last edited by phil155 on Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:09 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Canadian snowfall map from last night and the GFS this morning. Both very similar and pretty confident both will chnage one way or the other over the next 5 days. Eerily similar those this far out, though, especially how they both show mostly rain in eastern Mass and RI. The GFS had a similar snow map 4 days ago then lost it for several days.

Yes I know snow maps aren't very helpful but it's all I've got.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Cmc_fo11
Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs_sn11

Throw the EPS mean from this morning showing 8-10 through most of the forum and 10-12 on LI and CT. It doesn't have the rain in eastern New England like this mornings GFS and last nights Canadian, thus we assume a little more eastern track. Three models all with decent hits, yet as all of our experts have pointed out so much still has to come together for this to work. I'd say I'll look again Wednesday to see what's going on before I get too pumped but I know I'll be checking the 12Z's in an hour.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Eps_me10


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:29 am

That is a big time HP to the north of our storm. There is also an even stronger High in the northern Atlantic. This acts as our east based -NAO, something the models lost but have now brought back. No coincidence we're seeing more 'western' tracks as a result.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_us_22

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:55 am

This is banger of look peeps heading into Feb. Time will tell with this chart. Compliments of WxGun 33 n rain

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs-ensemble-all-KNYC-indiv_snow_24-3004000.png.9b467a5e21b3e582b792941354fe9bfd

GFS rolling and it looks better through 51 if you can imagine

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Post by hurrysundown23 Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:01 am

Fron NWS this morning I'm at the foot of the Driscoll Bridge Sayreville side

Fri 28 | Night
25°
79%
NNE 14 mph
Periods of snow. Low near 25F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Humidity
74%
UV Index
0 of 10
Moonrise
3:51 am
Waning Crescent
Moonset
1:10 pm
Sat 29
29°
/13°
Snow
71%
NNW 18 mph
Sat 29 | Day
29°
71%
NNW 18 mph
Snow during the morning will transition to snow showers during the afternoon. High 29F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

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Post by MattyICE Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:07 am

Frank_Wx wrote:That is a big time HP to the north of our storm. There is also an even stronger High in the northern Atlantic. This acts as our east based -NAO, something the models lost but have now brought back. No coincidence we're seeing more 'western' tracks as a result.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 Gfs_mslpa_us_22

Hell yeah, Frank. And that pesky LP off of Cali that we thought could press our ridge East (which I suppose is still possible) could also limit how far west the entire waveguide can shift - which some coasties will be worried about.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:11 am

12z GFS is going to show a hit. A Godzilla-like hit.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:15 am

GFS continues to advertise a strong storm coming up the coast. N&W areas do not get into the action verbatim, but honestly it's too early to be looking at snow maps/qpf maps. We need to let dynamics (i.e. jet placement, really warm ocean temps in the atlantic, etc.) do their thing but the models won't see that (especially the GFS) until 2 days before impact.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:16 am

OH NELLIE - PLEASE HOLD OR GET BETTER!!
THIS SCREAMS MASSIVE WESTWARD EXPANSION AND TREMENDOUS LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT - THIS JET STREAK IS GREAT!!
Jeez wish it was 48 hours hours not 114!!!
Lets not jump off the cliff if tomorrow we see a SE tick or two

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 6 FJ4Tll2WUAEq3AO?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:23 am

We have record warm SST’s out in the Atlantic for the month of January. A lot of these model runs are most likely underestimating QPF. If we get a sub 980 low to the BM, unless this beast hauls ass up the coast we’re going to see some insane snowfall totals in areas.
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