Long Range Discussion 23.0

Great comparison of last 4 runs. PNA spike if it's real is going to save this storm.
The energy does not come into good ROABs until Tuesday so sit tight until then.
If need be stay away until Wednesday.

The EPS control mean slp is slightly inside the BM and it's a bomb that drops 24 mb in 12 hours.  This is the ULL and I think if we trend to something like this then it's possible the ULL gets captured and rapid consolidation and intensification can occur with the mid-levels.  This latitude of an ULL exit off the coast is ideal IF we can get consolidation of the storm and that's what i start seeing. This would most likely tilt the trough more negative than neutral.

amugs wrote:


Great comparison of last 4 runs. PNA spike if it's real is going to save this storm.
The energy does not come into good ROABs until Tuesday so sit tight until then.
If need be stay away until Wednesday.

That's right mugs. If we see consolidation the slp would track inside the BM. Who can stay away

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do.  Of course I will be back if something looks good.

Something told me this was the case. 

We'll see what happens with next weekend's storm...

What's that supposed to mean? I just enjoy other things like my passion for music, video games, my side husstle ebay etc. What I HAVE TO LIKE SPORTS? I barely even watch TV, youtube mostly when I am bored. What about me tells you I do not like sports before I said it? Maybe I am taking it out of context but I hate it when people make assumptions about me.

heehaw453 wrote:

amugs wrote:


Great comparison of last 4 runs. PNA spike if it's real is going to save this storm.
The energy does not come into good ROABs until Tuesday so sit tight until then.
If need be stay away until Wednesday.

That's right mugs.  If we see consolidation the slp would track inside the BM.  Who can stay away

Not to sound paranoid, but could this storm play out the way last week's storm did and instead of go ots it hug the coast or worse apps runner

lglickman1 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

amugs wrote:


Great comparison of last 4 runs. PNA spike if it's real is going to save this storm.
The energy does not come into good ROABs until Tuesday so sit tight until then.
If need be stay away until Wednesday.

That's right mugs.  If we see consolidation the slp would track inside the BM.  Who can stay away

Not to sound paranoid, but could this storm play out the way last week's storm did and instead of go ots it hug the coast or worse apps runner

Anything with a storm system like this is possible, but highly doubtful. The trough is too far south and there is no indication of the ULL closing off early enough to allow for something like that. If an ULL capture were to occur I could see a more inside the BM track.

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do.  Of course I will be back if something looks good.

Something told me this was the case. 

We'll see what happens with next weekend's storm...

What's that supposed to mean? I just enjoy other things like my passion for music, video games, my side husstle ebay etc.  What I HAVE TO LIKE SPORTS? I barely even watch TV, youtube mostly when I am bored.  What about me tells you I do not like sports before I said it?  Maybe I am taking it out of context but I hate it when people make assumptions about me.

Your posts in general gave me the feel that you weren't a sportsy kinda guy and my inkling was on the money. That is all.  Glad you have many other interests,  enjoy them.

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do.  Of course I will be back if something looks good.

Something told me this was the case. 

We'll see what happens with next weekend's storm...

What's that supposed to mean? I just enjoy other things like my passion for music, video games, my side husstle ebay etc.  What I HAVE TO LIKE SPORTS? I barely even watch TV, youtube mostly when I am bored.  What about me tells you I do not like sports before I said it?  Maybe I am taking it out of context but I hate it when people make assumptions about me.

Your posts in general gave me the feel that you weren't a sportsy kinda guy and my inkling was on the money. That is all.  Glad you have many other interests,  enjoy them.

Okay, doesnt make much sense to me that my posts which are mainly about weather could tell you i might not like sports. I actually used to be a huge basketball fan (Bulls) I loved Jordan, and I even played football in HS for 2 years but it just changed over time it became uninteresting to me. cannot pinpoint why, but yes I do enjoy what I do and also my wife hogs the TV lol or my daughter is watching cartoons.

https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1485387216767627268?s=20

EPS from 33 n rain

No posts about the gfs ?

The GFS H5 was a big step in the right direction.  MUCH BETTER consolidation and and leaves not as much energy back.  We just have to see if this truly where we are heading. In order for this to work the energy must consolidate more thoroughly and that will close off ULL which will then ride inside the BM.

Canadian is an absolute tucked bomb to a point where SNE would probably rain. Fully closes off and gets captured.

At D5 take the guidance for whatever you think makes sense.  What i take is slower movement allowing for better consolidation and better western ridging.

GEFS 00Z



GEFS 18Z

Tonight’s EURO Op is wide right, but you talk about a bomb? 1003 to 948 in 24 hours lol 55mb in a day. That’s on par with a tropical R.I. cycle haha

I don’t want to jinx it but this may need a storm thread, for this weekend. Things got very interesting over night on all the 0Z runs. REALLY INTERESTING!!!!!!

Gulp.  (00z EPS significantly improved and includes some eye-popping MSLP's...)

00z (latest)





18z (previous)

The 6z GFS  Is an inside the benchmark track.  Mixing issues for Long Island and Southern New England.  If this system takes an MLK day track  I will lose it as would most on this board.  How far West can it come?

The ensemble mean is 980MB.  Which means this has a chance to be in the 960 range. that's incredible

algae888 wrote:The 6z GFS  Is an inside the benchmark track.  Mixing issues for Long Island and Southern New England.  If this system takes an MLK day track  I will lose it as would most on this board.  How far West can it come?

That's what I was worried about, so far thus season we get screwed with the track being ots or being too close

Joe coiffi just posted doorvis open for a major nor easter let’s see what happens I know it’s 5 days out but I like when local meteorologists start talking about it

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I don’t want to jinx it but this may need a storm thread, for this weekend.  Things got very interesting over night on all the 0Z runs. REALLY INTERESTING!!!!!!

NO SEPARATE THREAD YET!!! It’s the KOD. This season at least.

NWS sniffing around with chance of snow 30% Friday and Friday night up in these parts.The long range crew is on to something here.Let's see what the week brings.

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I don’t want to jinx it but this may need a storm thread, for this weekend.  Things got very interesting over night on all the 0Z runs. REALLY INTERESTING!!!!!!

NO SEPARATE THREAD YET!!!  It’s the KOD. This season at least.

Doc, I never thought of that but you're right.Glad I am not a moderator to make those decisions,LOL.

rb924119 wrote:Tonight’s EURO Op is wide right, but you talk about a bomb? 1003 to 948 in 24 hours lol 55mb in a day. That’s on par with a tropical R.I. cycle haha

For the record the euro was not wide right. It still dropped 8-16” across all of LI and everyone else plowable.

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I don’t want to jinx it but this may need a storm thread, for this weekend.  Things got very interesting over night on all the 0Z runs. REALLY INTERESTING!!!!!!

NO SEPARATE THREAD YET!!!  It’s the KOD. This season at least.

.And Frank u listening not ticker tape or storm mode until we are within 18 hours!!!! That has been the jinx all winter!!

Grand Planetary Gravity Wave on the Globe with this. Last time we saw this.....March Superstorm 1993!

I know 5 days is a lifetime away, but the solutions being spit out are giving me chills lol - reel her in!