Long Range Discussion 23.0

The fun is in tracking win or lose this is fun

Carvin wrote:The fun is in tracking win or lose this is fun

I completely agree. When Senj said that he finds the biggest thrill in the hunt and anticipation of the coming storm, I thought I wrote the post!

That's why starting up the thread, makes total sense. If it misses, it's not because we started the thread, but I get the idea of bad Juju that some have.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/25/big-storm-may-rock-nyc-region-with-foot-of-snow-or-more/

Frank said if things hold tomorrow he will do a thread, blog and maybe even a chat. if you guys have never done the chat its a lot fun especially doing it live with the models coming in. He isn't gonna do one before then.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank said if things hold tomorrow he will do a thread, blog and maybe even a chat. if you guys have never done the chat its a lot fun especially doing it live with the models coming in. He isn't gonna do one before then.

Like the zoom or Google meeting we did last year?!  That'd be great!

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank said if things hold tomorrow he will do a thread, blog and maybe even a chat. if you guys have never done the chat its a lot fun especially doing it live with the models coming in. He isn't gonna do one before then.

Like the zoom or Google meeting we did last year?!  That'd be great!

Ohh I forgot about the zoom, we could suggest that, it would be more fun. There is a chat in the forum on the main page.

18z EURO holds serve although it only goes out 90 hours. At that hour it’s in the same position from 12z. It’s also 4mb deeper.

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank said if things hold tomorrow he will do a thread, blog and maybe even a chat. if you guys have never done the chat its a lot fun especially doing it live with the models coming in. He isn't gonna do one before then.

Like the zoom or Google meeting we did last year?!  That'd be great!

Ohh I forgot about the zoom, we could suggest that, it would be more fun. There is a chat in the forum on the main page.

Would love to pull off a zoom, so much better!

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank said if things hold tomorrow he will do a thread, blog and maybe even a chat. if you guys have never done the chat its a lot fun especially doing it live with the models coming in. He isn't gonna do one before then.

Like the zoom or Google meeting we did last year?!  That'd be great!

Ohh I forgot about the zoom, we could suggest that, it would be more fun. There is a chat in the forum on the main page.

Would love to pull off a zoom, so much better!

I have Zoom we can do with my school account.

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z EURO holds serve although it only goes out 90 hours. At that hour it’s in the same position from 12z. It’s also 4mb deeper.

It looks to occlude up by ELI /RI and then retrograde - ala 1978. IF that happens it snow longer.

amugs wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z EURO holds serve although it only goes out 90 hours. At that hour it’s in the same position from 12z. It’s also 4mb deeper.

It looks to occlude up by ELI /RI and then retrograde - ala 1978. IF that happens it snow longer.

Bout wouldnt that bring rain/mixing into most areas being that close?

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank said if things hold tomorrow he will do a thread, blog and maybe even a chat. if you guys have never done the chat its a lot fun especially doing it live with the models coming in. He isn't gonna do one before then.

Like the zoom or Google meeting we did last year?!  That'd be great!

Ohh I forgot about the zoom, we could suggest that, it would be more fun. There is a chat in the forum on the main page.

Would love to pull off a zoom, so much better!

I have Zoom we can do with my school account.

I have it through my job so i am all set, it wont say Alexa this year lol, I forgot about that my daughter was signed in when I used it lol

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z EURO holds serve although it only goes out 90 hours. At that hour it’s in the same position from 12z. It’s also 4mb deeper.

The cyclonic curvature is slightly more impressive and there is evidence of the ULL starting to close off in Delamarva.  Yeah it held serve!



Based on where it's closing off this would've gotten pulled about 100-150 miles inside the BM.

If you want a picture of how major snowfall is achieved in these parts well here it is.  I am extremely encouraged to see the ULL closing off several runs now on the EPS.  I can dream...

Are there any mixing issues for the coast apparent at this time?

SENJsnowman wrote:Are there any mixing issues for the coast apparent at this time?

It's always a possibility in a dynamic system for SE NJ and South Shore of LI. It all depends on how close the mid-levels get to the coast. I will say this has abundant cold to work with coupled with n/s energy. Chances are lower than most of the storms. But hey we got get the storm first!

heehaw453 wrote:If you want a picture of how major snowfall is achieved in these parts well here it is.  I am extremely encouraged to see the ULL closing off several runs now on the EPS.  I can dream...

madding Mia this is getting very excited I guess we are not getting that much sleep for couple days

whos giving the play by play of 00z nam?

The 18Z Euro control continues to spit out insane precip amounts with DE and Southern NJ being ground zero.  It's just insanity the intensity of the system as it goes inside the BM.  I absolutely believe if this system gets captures areas further south could do quite well.

I like what I see so far on the nam. Sw energy ejecting out earlier

heehaw453 wrote:The 18Z Euro control continues to spit out insane precip amounts with DE and Southern NJ being ground zero.  It's just insanity the intensity of the system as it goes inside the BM.  I absolutely believe if this system gets captures areas further south could do quite well.

Why is there a gap between thew two heaviest areas meaning most of the board through CT, though no complaints with 12-20 lol But there is a clear bullseye in Mass and then SNJ. I hope SNJ gets their big one but Mass no lol

NAM will probably be decent. A lot depends on how strong the n/s piece that drops in is.

NVM lol

jmanley32 wrote:It appears to me the northern energy and southern are even closer together on 00z NAM no?

I'm seeing what I want to see with the NAM.  s/s energy rolls forward and the westerns ridge looks good.  n/s dropping in looks good too.  NAM gets out of reliable use beyond 60 hours IMO.

heehaw453 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:It appears to me the northern energy and southern are even closer together on 00z NAM no?

I'm seeing what I want to see with the NAM.  s/s energy rolls forward and the westerns ridge looks good.  n/s dropping in looks good too.  NAM gets out of reliable use beyond 60 hours IMO.

Cleaner phase for sure