Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
Nice for a change to see that the abnormally warm waters will be supplying a lot of energy and moisture into this system without dealing with a changeover to rain. (at least so far!)aiannone wrote:mmanisca wrote:Lloking like its our turn here in Suffolk county! Going to Crushed!aiannone wrote:Temps 0-10 above. Talk about ratios
Sure does look like it....as of now...
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
MattyICE wrote:It could all turn bad - but consider that the NAM and Euro are run at superior resolutions to most others. I have to wonder if that’s at play here. If so, even though I am admittedly biased, this will trend towards a classic inside benchmark track and widespread 1-2’ storm. Things like favorable jet streak, and moisture transfer, and banding, and latent heat release are all still hanging out there for the higher res shorter range models. I like where things stand, cautiously optimistic.
Rayno was harping on this all last night and yesterday about an IBM or BM track maybe a hair East. He firmly believes 2 things:
1. If it closes off at Delmarva of say ACY CNJ, NYC and NNJ up get pummeled as does SNE
2. If it stays a tad east and closes off at Montauk NYC and NENJ are in the game if occludes and retrogrades towards the Conn Border or jest west and SNE gets pummeled, smoked.
One thing he is very concerned about are the winds and the coastal flooding with the astronomical high tides. Possible beach erosion, moderate to major flooding from he believes Cape May up through Maine
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
amugs wrote:Yes SRCO said 15:1 and some 20:1 plus - seriously may rival the great 1899 Arctic Outbreaks Strom that had rations 20-30:1 up and down the entire east coast. AS we get closer we can hone in on the finer details but lets get tehre first peeps.aiannone wrote:Temps 0-10 above. Talk about ratios
Need the other 12Z models to hold and the EURO to give us some Petty Lovin - "Won't Back Down" CP your man and for teh sacrifice of the good I shall join you in snowstorm weather martyrdom my good man as I was once the self proclaimed "King Snow Weenie" back in the day!! God' speed to you all and have patience, logic, and reasoning as we move forward with our model runs peeps.
Time will tell so hang tight.
Awesome gesture Mugs but you can't do it, you're to valuable as a forecaster, moderator, poster and still esteemed citizen of the nuclear infested wasteland known as OTI, visited by Math last night btw. Seems like he took the proper precautions though.
We need someone like myself that adds nothing from an analytical standpoint.
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Pretty sure RGEM is the only model holding that much energy back in the SW. Toss...
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
Expect little, give much. Down deep I never expected that much for the North and west.
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
You've seen GFS vs ECMWF maps and GFS vs RAOB comparison maps but how about GFS vs ECMWF vs RAOBs all on one map?
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 26, 2022
Blue dots here represent stations where the 00z ECMWF outperformed the 00z GFS when verified with12z RAOBs. Red dots vice versa.
ECMWF on top at key sites out west. pic.twitter.com/HBC3oWOMhy
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
nutleyblizzard wrote:Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.
Lonnie Quinn on the 11pm news last night did a good job explaining exactly what both the GFS and the EURO were showing, with two separate maps of the potential outcomes, and an emphasis to stay tuned to today's forecasts.
And I was just at Home Depot and shovels and salt are moving fast. The lady directing people to registers said they were super busy all morning because "apparently we're getting a foot of snow."
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
Phasing is a blessing and a curse for snow weenies and very cautious optimism is warranted.
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
aiannone wrote:You've seen GFS vs ECMWF maps and GFS vs RAOB comparison maps but how about GFS vs ECMWF vs RAOBs all on one map?
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 26, 2022
Blue dots here represent stations where the 00z ECMWF outperformed the 00z GFS when verified with12z RAOBs. Red dots vice versa.
ECMWF on top at key sites out west. pic.twitter.com/HBC3oWOMhy
That is a critical map to teh evolution of teh system out west. MANY more blue dots than red on that map. time will tell.
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
essexcountypete wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.
Lonnie Quinn on the 11pm news last night did a good job explaining exactly what both the GFS and the EURO were showing, with two separate maps of the potential outcomes, and an emphasis to stay tuned to today's forecasts.
And I was just at Home Depot and shovels and salt are moving fast. The lady directing people to registers said they were super busy all morning because "apparently we're getting a foot of snow."
There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone.
Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it double that amount of storms that big. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories. It still baffles me.
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
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