Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

by **mmanisca** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:10 am

aiannone wrote:
mmanisca wrote:
aiannone wrote:Temps 0-10 above. Talk about ratios
Lloking like its our turn here in Suffolk county! Going to Crushed!

Sure does look like it....as of now...

Nice for a change to see that the abnormally warm waters will be supplying a lot of energy and moisture into this system without dealing with a changeover to rain. (at least so far!)

by **amugs** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:15 am

MattyICE wrote:It could all turn bad - but consider that the NAM and Euro are run at superior resolutions to most others. I have to wonder if that’s at play here. If so, even though I am admittedly biased, this will trend towards a classic inside benchmark track and widespread 1-2’ storm. Things like favorable jet streak, and moisture transfer, and banding, and latent heat release are all still hanging out there for the higher res shorter range models. I like where things stand, cautiously optimistic.

Rayno was harping on this all last night and yesterday about an IBM or BM track maybe a hair East. He firmly believes 2 things:
1. If it closes off at Delmarva of say ACY CNJ, NYC and NNJ up get pummeled as does SNE
2. If it stays a tad east and closes off at Montauk NYC and NENJ are in the game if occludes and retrogrades towards the Conn Border or jest west and SNE gets pummeled, smoked.

One thing he is very concerned about are the winds and the coastal flooding with the astronomical high tides. Possible beach erosion, moderate to major flooding from he believes Cape May up through Maine

by **phil155** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:25 am

aiannone wrote:AND STILL SNOWING! HERE IS THE SNOW MAP AND SURFACE MAP.

right under that 18.8

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:26 am

12z RGEM is still east

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Sn10_a47

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:28 am

Wow the ratio snow map is nuts, can we really get ratios that high along the coast and LI? I mean I saw regular snowmap and highest totals are near half the K map.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:28 am

amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:Temps 0-10 above. Talk about ratios
Yes SRCO said 15:1 and some 20:1 plus - seriously may rival the great 1899 Arctic Outbreaks Strom that had rations 20-30:1 up and down the entire east coast. AS we get closer we can hone in on the finer details but lets get tehre first peeps.

Need the other 12Z models to hold and the EURO to give us some Petty Lovin - "Won't Back Down" CP your man and for teh sacrifice of the good I shall join you in snowstorm weather martyrdom my good man as I was once the self proclaimed "King Snow Weenie" back in the day!! God' speed to you all and have patience, logic, and reasoning as we move forward with our model runs peeps.

Time will tell so hang tight.

Awesome gesture Mugs but you can't do it, you're to valuable as a forecaster, moderator, poster and still esteemed citizen of the nuclear infested wasteland known as OTI, visited by Math last night btw. Seems like he took the proper precautions though.

We need someone like myself that adds nothing from an analytical standpoint.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:35 am

RGEM is a miss east. Here's a comparison valid Friday morning of the RGEM and NAM. RGEM is holding MUCH more energy back in the SW. Also, NAM is a lot more meridional with the heights across northern plains, thus allowing the northern energy to phase into the southern branch at the right time.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Models-2022012612-f048-500hv-conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Models-2022012612-f048-500hv-conus

Pretty sure RGEM is the only model holding that much energy back in the SW. Toss...

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:38 am

12Z GFS INITIALIZED! HERE WE GO

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:45 am

GFS is more west with the initial disturbance over the 4 corners, which is not great. That said, the northern piece looks to be slightly west as well. So maybe its a wash?

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Trend-gfs-2022012612-f033-500hv-conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Trend-gfs-2022012612-f033-500hv-conus

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:53 am

GFS looks so bad I am not even going to post it

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:58 am

Actually, it did recover at the surface to still give NYC east some snowfall

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:59 am

by **mmanisca** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:00 am

aiannone wrote:

UTTERLY RIDICULOUS!

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:01 am

GFS held a little of the energy back and therefore it consolidated a tad later and the trough tilted a tad later. With what the NAM did Im not worried just yet. If the euro holds I really wont worry. When the NAM and Euro are in the same camp with powerful dynamic systems like this it tends to be a safe bet. Baited breath for 12:45pm

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:02 am

Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:06 am

I can officially now, at least until a hail Mary tonight from the 0Z suites, put this to rest. I'm at peace with it.

Expect little, give much. Down deep I never expected that much for the North and west.

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:17 am

You've seen GFS vs ECMWF maps and GFS vs RAOB comparison maps but how about GFS vs ECMWF vs RAOBs all on one map?

Blue dots here represent stations where the 00z ECMWF outperformed the 00z GFS when verified with12z RAOBs. Red dots vice versa.

ECMWF on top at key sites out west. pic.twitter.com/HBC3oWOMhy
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 26, 2022

by **essexcountypete** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:20 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.

Lonnie Quinn on the 11pm news last night did a good job explaining exactly what both the GFS and the EURO were showing, with two separate maps of the potential outcomes, and an emphasis to stay tuned to today's forecasts.

And I was just at Home Depot and shovels and salt are moving fast. The lady directing people to registers said they were super busy all morning because "apparently we're getting a foot of snow."

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:20 am

Yep. GFS closes off, but too late. If the GFS budges at all it could be as little as 24-36 before the event. The Euro is stronger with the n/s and more a meridional phase which has a lot to do with the PNA ridge. GFS phase is more gradual and slanted due to that the n/s s/w kinking the ridge and consequently slower to develop the ULL. That is the difference IMO. I will say this the GFS was pretty wrong about holding the energy back in AZ with the kinking ridge where Euro really didn't to that.

Phasing is a blessing and a curse for snow weenies and very cautious optimism is warranted.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:21 am

aiannone wrote:
You've seen GFS vs ECMWF maps and GFS vs RAOB comparison maps but how about GFS vs ECMWF vs RAOBs all on one map?

Blue dots here represent stations where the 00z ECMWF outperformed the 00z GFS when verified with12z RAOBs. Red dots vice versa.

ECMWF on top at key sites out west. pic.twitter.com/HBC3oWOMhy
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 26, 2022

That is a critical map to teh evolution of teh system out west. MANY more blue dots than red on that map. time will tell.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:22 am

essexcountypete wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.

Lonnie Quinn on the 11pm news last night did a good job explaining exactly what both the GFS and the EURO were showing, with two separate maps of the potential outcomes, and an emphasis to stay tuned to today's forecasts.

And I was just at Home Depot and shovels and salt are moving fast. The lady directing people to registers said they were super busy all morning because "apparently we're getting a foot of snow."

There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone.

Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it double that amount of storms that big. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories. It still baffles me.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:22 am

Wow GFS total flop, hoping your right scott. If the Euro were to nod to the GFS at 12z is that a wrap?

by Carvin Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:24 am

I follow Bernie rayno and he thinks the gfs is just doing it’s regular back and fourth. Bernie thinks nyc gets 6” at least with gfs but euro can be special

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:24 am

Here is that ridge kink on GFS and Euro it's straight down hammer. IMO that is the difference between a memorable storm for us or no cigar.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Gfskin10

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Eurono10

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:27 am

12z GFS ENS support the OP

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 27275610

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:31 am

12z CMC says wave goodbye

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 2 Pratep23

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:33 am

aiannone wrote:12z CMC says wave goodbye

Wow this is not good, we have to hope and pray that NAM and Euro are right because both those runs GFS and CMC would need huge shifts back NW to get us back into a big storm, not liking the trends but it is what it is I guess.

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