Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

12z CMC says wave goodbye

aiannone wrote:12z CMC says wave goodbye

Wow this is not good, we have to hope and pray that NAM and Euro are right because both those runs GFS and CMC would need huge shifts back NW to get us back into a big storm, not liking the trends but it is what it is I guess.

Well we can't blame the thread. This started going downhill last night for anyone that was looking close. It's just accelerating today.

All is not lost, but a betting person would certainly bet against any area wide blockbuster right now.

I think we may be looking at a decent ( 3/6-4/8 ) but not blockbuster storm for most. I think the phase will just happen a little to late and we end up with more than the gfs is calling for but not huge totals. We will see though and so we track, thankfully there are some very talented and experienced folks here that I know will have a handle on this in the relative near term

I knew it was good to be true what else is new

Red Circle is the mean of the GFS. I think it is to far east and should tick back NW. We'll see how much.

amugs wrote:

aiannone wrote:

You've seen GFS vs ECMWF maps and GFS vs RAOB comparison maps but how about GFS vs ECMWF vs RAOBs all on one map?

Blue dots here represent stations where the 00z ECMWF outperformed the 00z GFS when verified with12z RAOBs. Red dots vice versa.

ECMWF on top at key sites out west. pic.twitter.com/HBC3oWOMhy

— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) January 26, 2022

That is a critical map to teh evolution of teh system out west. MANY more blue dots than red on that map. time will tell.

The legend disagrees with what he said here, and he just corrected himself. GFS performed better where the blue dots are. Seems GFS slightly outperformed the EURO yesterday...

Thanks
@MikeBWeather
for spotting that I tripped myself up with the phrasing in this tweet.

At sites marked in blue, the *GFS* is doing better (lower error) than the ECMWF while the ECMWF is on top at sites marked in orange/red.

So perhaps a marginal edge to the GFS last night

Jump weenies jump

sroc4 wrote:Jump weenies jump

it's only Wednesday and GFS is the new Jim Jones

Weenie cautiousness not jumping just yet. LOL! We don't forget Juno!

sroc4 wrote:Jump weenies jump

HOLD on that, Euro may still stick giving some hope, if not I may jump but try to grab on as I start to fall cuz I am not giving up on this yet. Though it is only wed this is supposed to start late friday maybe even afternoon so thats about 48 hrs if my math is right, not much time left.

I guess it’s better to temper expectations now and hope we get a surprise northwest jump. If not, some good NFL games this weekend to look forward to! Let’s hope for a nice plowable snow! Thank you all for your great analysis given the tough variations.

frank 638 wrote:
I knew it was good to be true what else is new

Well as stated previously storms like this do not happen often up here, what really hurts is that the storm is fully there just misses, thats the salt in the wound.

phil155 wrote:I think we may be looking at a decent ( 3/6-4/8 ) but not blockbuster storm for most. I think the phase will just happen a little to late and we end up with more than the gfs is calling for but not huge totals. We will see though and so we track, thankfully there are some very talented and experienced folks here that I know will have a handle on this in the relative near term

Yeah. I certainly don't have any confidence in Euro/NAM until we have more consensus. One would think with a nice PNA ridge we got a shot, but phasing is just too complex to have any confidence in any solution right now.

Global models don't account for latent heat too well, so it's possible the NAM and future mesoscale models will do a better job with it's track/str because of that convection at the start

sroc4 wrote:12Z NAM run!!!!!!

This made me bust out laughing !

heehaw453 wrote:

phil155 wrote:I think we may be looking at a decent ( 3/6-4/8 ) but not blockbuster storm for most. I think the phase will just happen a little to late and we end up with more than the gfs is calling for but not huge totals. We will see though and so we track, thankfully there are some very talented and experienced folks here that I know will have a handle on this in the relative near term

Yeah.  I certainly don't have any confidence in Euro/NAM until we have more consensus.  One would think with a nice PNA ridge we got a shot, but phasing is just too complex to have any confidence in any solution right now.

If 12z Euro holds I would have a lot of confidence in a Euro/Nam solution as opposed to the GFS. I think it's too far east and will correct. The GFS is known very stubborn in these situations until 24-36 hours out.

Keeping busy as to not get too excited or too disappointed..CP...I scrubbed cabinets yesterday and did windows to keep busy...

doesn't recon happen today?

weatherwatchermom wrote:Keeping busy as to not get too excited or too disappointed..CP...I scrubbed cabinets yesterday and did windows to keep busy...

doesn't recon happen today?

yup

Perfect example of media hype and completely baseless

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/new-york-new-england-risk-bomb-cyclone-as-nor-easter-approaches

TWC has me for 11-15” I’m sure that will change 5 more times in the near future

Scullybutcher wrote:TWC has me for 11-15” I’m sure that will change 5 more times in the near future

I never do this but I looked and they have me for 6-11, if that were to verify I will take it in a heartbeat versus nothing. Also says sustained winds 25-35 mph, gusts would likely be near 50-60mph, thats one wind whipped snowstorm. But whats strange? TWC goes soley off the GFS and that is not what the GFS showed.

jmanley32 wrote:

Scullybutcher wrote:TWC has me for 11-15” I’m sure that will change 5 more times in the near future

I never do this but I looked and they have me for 6-11, if that were to verify I will take it in a heartbeat versus nothing. Also says sustained winds 25-35 mph, gusts would likely be near 50-60mph, thats one wind whipped snowstorm.  But whats strange? TWC goes soley off the GFS and that is not what the GFS showed.

Was watching TWC this morning and they said they were using a mix between the GFS and Euro to get the numbers they were using

Frank_Wx wrote:Perfect example of media hype and completely baseless

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/new-york-new-england-risk-bomb-cyclone-as-nor-easter-approaches

They saved the rational part for the last three paragraphs...

Meteorologists will have a clearer idea in the next day or so because the energy coming off the Pacific will be sampled by weather balloons and other observations, Bann said. This increases the accuracy of the forecast as the system moves east.

Confidence is growing New England will receive heavy snow and high winds, but there is a chance that rain could wrap in along the coast keeping totals down, Bann said. There is less confidence for the forecast from New York south.

“There is a whole lot of uncertainty,” Bann said. “It will depend on where it develops and when it develops.”

essexcountypete wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.

Lonnie Quinn on the 11pm news last night did a good job explaining exactly what both the GFS and the EURO were showing, with two separate maps of the potential outcomes, and an emphasis to stay tuned to today's forecasts.  

And I was just at Home Depot and shovels and salt are moving fast. The lady directing people to registers said they were super busy all morning because "apparently we're getting a foot of snow."

I never understand why people need more shovels every time it snows. What happened to the ones they had the last snow event? Shouldn't everyone have shovels by now???

Dunnzoo wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Looks like we have a EURO/GFS standoff. EURO wants to annihilate us while the GFS gives a glancing blow. The problem with this going forward is as most of us already knows the TV and radio outlets have a GFS bias. So in the end if the EURO has the correct solution, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard. Thankfully this is a weekend event.

Lonnie Quinn on the 11pm news last night did a good job explaining exactly what both the GFS and the EURO were showing, with two separate maps of the potential outcomes, and an emphasis to stay tuned to today's forecasts.  

And I was just at Home Depot and shovels and salt are moving fast. The lady directing people to registers said they were super busy all morning because "apparently we're getting a foot of snow."

I never understand why people need more shovels every time it snows. What happened to the ones they had the last snow event? Shouldn't everyone have shovels by now???  

LMAO, I dunno if you know the youtube comedian Anthony Rodia but he had a bit about this, very true he said what do they use it once and then throw it away?