Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Great run for 60 hours and then a train wreck. H5 like that and a low in that position should not give me 0 qpf.

heehaw453 wrote:I call bs on the NAM.  That look is most likely not getting pushed out.  It's coming up.  Straight up

thats what i thought but i was wrong and posted too early, my bad.

Frank_Wx wrote:Yes, recon was in this

THANK YOU!

Take this axis and push it about 50-75 miles NW and that's reality of that run. Dramatic changes at the H5.

heehaw453 wrote:Take this axis and push it about 50-75 miles NW and that's reality of that run.  Dramatic changes at the H5.  

If true that would put NYC area in the crosshairs of that blob and LI would still be in it too.

heehaw453 wrote:Take this axis and push it about 50-75 miles NW and that's reality of that run.  Dramatic changes at the H5.  

Exactly. 2nd ridiculous run in a row but much better than 18z which was embarrassing.

I think that the Nam is still correcting itself. I wouldn’t worry too much on surface depictions just yet. It’ll catch up. H5 levels were gorgeous on that run.

I believe this is a miller A potential that rides the coastline.  Have to ask yourself the question.  Why is it being kicked NE instead of NNE.  It's wedged between two ridges Atlantic and Western.  That's not progressive, but meridional.  Negative tilt to the trough and has good wave space.

ICON says hello to Godzilla

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Take this axis and push it about 50-75 miles NW and that's reality of that run.  Dramatic changes at the H5.  

If true that would put NYC area in the crosshairs of that blob and LI would still be in it too.

That run would've given NYC 18" of snow IMO.

heehaw453 wrote:I call bs on the NAM.  That look is most likely not getting pushed out.  It's coming up.  Straight up

Agree 100%

The NAM actually looks better at 500mb than 18z EURO, but for some reason the isobars are pointing SW to NW instead of S to N like EURO showed. The PvA consolidation on the NAM was MUCH better. It should have done what the EURO did, at a minimum with the surface low.

nutleyblizzard wrote:I think that the Nam is still correcting itself. I wouldn’t worry too much on surface depictions just yet. It’ll catch up. H5 levels were gorgeous on that run.

Agree

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne...RGEM

Not valid without visuals!

Wow

DO NOT LOOKA T SURFACE MAPS they are not showing the true vastness of the storm precipitation field. What yuo all need to know is that the 500MB ULL improved DRASTICALLY!!!! It is sharper, more consolidated, Goes Neutral Sonner, and is a hair from closing off and giving us a great storm for a majority of the board. The adjustments are being made and lead by the EURO so far.
Recon flights will be in models for 0Z GFS and definitely EURO.

Good night and see you all at 6:30AM

Frank_Wx wrote:

on that map....dont you think the dark purples would just fill in from southern new england right across long island to connect with the area off the jersey coast?

Here is what we need over the next 24 hours of model runs:

1. Continue to see the southern and northern branches vertically align

2. Continue to see the northern energy dive in for the earlier phase as a result of meridional heights ahead of it

3. See the trough go neutral over GA

4. Get the 500mb low to close off at 09z Saturday or earlier

5. H5, H7 and H85 mid-level lows should be to our south and gradually move off the coast. Here's 700mb low on the RGEM. Move this 75 miles west and it's Roidzilla-city for most

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is what we need over the next 24 hours of model runs:

1. Continue to see the southern and northern branches vertically align

2. Continue to see the northern energy dive in for the earlier phase as a result of meridional heights ahead of it

3. See the trough go neutral over GA

4. Get the 500mb low to close off at 18z Saturday or earlier

5. H5, H7 and H85 mid-level lows should be to our south and gradually move off the coast. Here's 700mb low on the RGEM. Move this 75 miles west and it's Roidzilla-city for most

All of this seems not out of the realm of doable to me. Great post!

This the first run the rgem is showing a big hit? I recall it not having shown good runs.

jmanley32 wrote:This the first run the rgem is showing a big hit? I recall it not having shown good runs.

I thought it did yesterday, no?

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne...RGEM

Let me tell ya, nothing gets you more excited on this chat board than when Frank says “Madonne”

I think models are telling us the phase may be pretty good. What happens as the low goes up the coast is the big unknown now. Most guidance want to go right over the BM with the surface low. In an explosive system more than likely the energy will consolidate and stack and get tugged back by the trailing ULL. You are not getting sub 980 pressure w/out consolidation.

I know the models are for guidance and that pro mets use them to work into their forecast but what good are they when we do not have a end result or close to an idea only 36-48 hrs before? Thats pathetic and our technology by now should be far more superior. Like Lee said he can't even make a snow map yet in good conscious because of the uncertainty.

jmanley32 wrote:I know the models are for guidance and that pro mets use them to work into their forecast but what good are they when we do not have a end result or close to an idea only 36-48 hrs before? Thats pathetic and our technology by now should be far more superior.

Yeah from my experience phasing systems give the models very difficult times. Many times it's not until 24-48 hours before a phase that they start to latch onto the idea.

GFS has started, I will leave it to the others to do a play by play so as to not set off CP... : )

Honestly now I am thinking that we will have to wait to have a good idea by 00z tomorrow, I think there could still be changes at 06z 12z and 18z tomorrow, but hopefully all in the right direction, so far so good lets see what GFS and CMC do.